Samford at ETSU

[apaladin]

It's basically going to come down to this game on Nov. 17th that determines the fate of the top 4 teams, ETSU, Samford, Wofford and Furman.
1. A Samford win probably creates a 4 way shared conference title between these teams. If this happens Sammy would get the auto bid and ETSU would surely take an at-large bid along with Wofford even though they lost to Furman and FU would be out.

2. An ETSU win gives them the outright championship and probably leaves Furman and Wofford tied for second place.
In this case WC gets an at-large bid and FU again is left out.

In both scenarios I think WC gets in over FU despite the FU win because of better overall record and top 25 ranking.

Other games for this all to happen are.
Wofford win at WCU, almost a sure thing
Furman wins at VMI and Mercer, not sure things.

There is one other possibility and that is Samford loses at the Citadel this week and wins at ETSU next week. That would create a 3 way-tie between FU, WC and ETSU with all having a 1-1 head to head. Don't know who would get the auto bid. Someone posted on AGS that it would come down to points allowed between the 3 and FU would win that. I don't know if this is correct.

I think if scenario one happens the SoCon gets 3 bids: ETSU, Sammy and Woffy

I think if scenario two happens the SoCon gets 2 bids, ETSU and Woffy.

The only sure bid right now is ETSU. They only have Sammy left and win or lose they are in. Sammy and ETSU control their own destiny, FU and WC do not.

[gman]

Its difficult to accept that ETSU is the best team in the SoCon. It shows how far the SoCon has sunk in the last few years.

[soconjohn]

Rewarding schools for scheduling glorified patsies of FCS football is basically what choosing Wofford over Furman comes down to in choosing The Terriers as an at-large. ..Samford, ETSU and Furman are all more deserving at this point in the season and I say that even knowing both ETSU and Samford scheduled Division II schools. Wofford is not a better football team than Furman and Furman proved that a few weeks back...bottom line...what criteria would Wofford deserve an at large over Furman? What because Wofford could beat Elon or Clemson?

[apaladin]

Its difficult to accept that ETSU is the best team in the SoCon. It shows how far the SoCon has sunk in the last few years.

They are not the best team, just everything has fallen their way this year. IMHO they are middle of the pack. The chances of winning every conference game by 3 points or less are astronomical. Of course WC did wear them out. Unfortunately they will represent the SoCon in the playoffs which will not have a good ending.

On AGS someone suggested that FU should get in and Colgate should have to come to SC in the first round since they cancelled the game. Won't happen but that would be awesome.

[apaladin]

Rewarding schools for scheduling glorified patsies of FCS football is basically what choosing Wofford over Furman comes down to in choosing The Terriers as an at-large. ..Samford, ETSU and Furman are all more deserving at this point in the season and I say that even knowing both ETSU and Samford scheduled Division II schools. Wofford is not a better football team than Furman and Furman proved that a few weeks back...bottom line...what criteria would Wofford deserve an at large over Furman? What because Wofford could beat Elon or Clemson?

I agree that WC should not get in over FU but I have no faith in the committee to dig this deep in the FU/WC matchup. They will see 8-3 vs. 6-4. Doubt they will even know FU won the game.

[The Jackal]

A few points in response:

1. Nothing is certain.

2. Of the four teams, ETSU is probably the only one that doesn't have to win out. Samford would be eliminated with a loss, and so would Furman. Wofford might not be, but a loss to PC or WCU would be crippling to their at large chances.

3. I'm not one that thinks Wofford automatically gets in over Furman. Furman whalloped Wofford head to head. Wofford played a much easier schedule. Furman would likely be 8-3 or even 9-2 with Wofford's schedule.

[gofurman]

It's basically going to come down to this game on Nov. 17th that determines the fate of the top 4 teams, ETSU, Samford, Wofford and Furman.
1. A Samford win probably creates a 4 way shared conference title between these teams. If this happens Sammy would get the auto bid and ETSU would surely take an at-large bid along with Wofford even though they lost to Furman and FU would be out.

2. An ETSU win gives them the outright championship and probably leaves Furman and Wofford tied for second place.
In this case WC gets an at-large bid and FU again is left out.

In both scenarios I think WC gets in over FU despite the FU win because of better overall record and top 25 ranking.

Other games for this all to happen are.
Wofford win at WCU, almost a sure thing
Furman wins at VMI and Mercer, not sure things.

There is one other possibility and that is Samford loses at the Citadel this week and wins at ETSU next week. That would create a 3 way-tie between FU, WC and ETSU with all having a 1-1 head to head. Don't know who would get the auto bid. Someone posted on AGS that it would come down to points allowed between the 3 and FU would win that. I don't know if this is correct.

I think if scenario one happens the SoCon gets 3 bids: ETSU, Sammy and Woffy

I think if scenario two happens the SoCon gets 2 bids, ETSU and Woffy.

The only sure bid right now is ETSU. They only have Sammy left and win or lose they are in. Sammy and ETSU control their own destiny, FU and WC do not.

I THINK the bolder scenario actually. Gives Furman the auto-bid

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Regardless, if we win out we should get votes /20-25th ranked which helps for next year !!! THIS IS HUGE. This is in our control and really helps next year to working on 2019 playoffs

If we win out Aand Samford beats ETSU we will be SoCon CHAMPS !!! Co- champs so probably no playoffs but so the players get rings and we get to put 2018' on the field house. That would be great after an 0-3 start

[soconjohn]

It truly has been a strange year...Until I watched Wofford vs. Samford yesterday, I was willing to give Wofford a little bit of the benefit of the doubt, but after that and the beating Furman put on them, I am not sure how good they actually are. I know they were impressive at home vs. league-leading ETSU and have not lost at home this season, so in that sense, they have defended home turf nicely. It would have actually helped Furman if Wofford had finished out strong without a loss and Furman might have gotten an at-large bid based on that alone. However, at this point, I will say I think it would be hard to argue that Furman and Samford haven't been the best teams in the league over the past month or so. That being said, kudos to ETSU. They have done everything put before them except beat Wofford. Hard to do anything but tip your cap to those guys because they have earned everything they have gotten thus far...I am inclined to think if Furman played ETSU now, the story might be different, but Furman had its chance and didn't make the most of it.

[FUBeAR]

Its difficult to accept that ETSU is the best team in the SoCon. It shows how far the SoCon has sunk in the last few years.

They are not the best team, just everything has fallen their way this year. IMHO they are middle of the pack. The chances of winning every conference game by 3 points or less are astronomical. Of course WC did wear them out.

True dat. I think Samford, barring any unusual circumstances (injury, weather, etc.) will wear them out also.

Mercer played them near-even with a 3rd Team, Walk-on QB, who didn’t even start for his HS Team, as their Starter. The Bears were also without their All SoCon/All-Time leading rusher at RB. Then, they lost their SuperFrosh WR/ATH in the middle of the 3rd quarter. As I understand it, they had prepared a ‘package’ of “Wildcat” plays with him as the ‘trigger-man’ to deploy, if needed, such as would have been opportune in the series below, and, particularly, on 3rd down with 4 to go on their own 40 with 6:06 to play in the 4th quarter, trailing 21-18. Instead...

1st and 10 at MER34 Harrison Frost pass complete for 6 yards to the MER40.
2nd and 4 at MER40 Harrison Frost pass incomplete.
3rd and 4 at MER40 Harrison Frost pass incomplete.
4th and 4 at MER40 Matt Shiel punt 60 yards to the ETSU0, touchback.
TOTAL 3 plays , 6 yards Time of Possession: 0:46

...never to see the ball again...

ETSU definitely seems to be a Team of Destiny this year, but talent/‘power’-wise, they are right there with Chatt, Mercer, CIT, and, maybe WCU, in the middle of the SoCon pack.

[fufanatic]

It's not looking good for the SoCon to advance past the round of 16 this year unfortunately. I could see a scenario where the conference champ or at-large team beats a lesser conference champ at home on the opening weekend, but not sure if anyone goes farther than that. We desperately need a team to step forward and make a deep run in the postseason ... hopefully it's Furman soon. Believe we could win a couple of games this year, but just don't think we will be able to make it in unless all hell breaks loose the next few weeks. I just can't see a 6-4 team that's not in one of the elite FCS conferences getting an at-large slot, but I sure hope I'm wrong.

[fufanatic]

It's not looking good for the SoCon to advance past the round of 16 this year unfortunately. I could see a scenario where the conference champ or at-large team beats a lesser conference champ at home on the opening weekend, but not sure if anyone goes farther than that. We desperately need a team to step forward and make a deep run in the postseason ... hopefully it's Furman soon. Believe we could win a couple of games this year, but just don't think we will be able to make it in unless all hell breaks loose the next few weeks. I just can't see a 6-4 team that's not in one of the elite FCS conferences getting an at-large slot, but I sure hope I'm wrong.

Although I say all that and I still wonder if Wofford and Samford can both lose on the road this weekend, we win out, and ETSU beats Samford, would the committee really only take one team from the SoCon this year with Furman sitting there at 6-4 (6-2 in SoCon) and a win over Wofford with losses to Clemson, Elon and conference champ ETSU? The worst scenario playoff wise for us is probably a three-way tie for 1st with ETSU and Samford where we lost to both teams. Can't imagine three SoCon teams getting in unfortunately.

[Flagman]

All of this talk is encouraging. Another question for us; if Furman does actually get a bid, will we be willing to step up with the money to get a home game?

[gman]

All of this talk is encouraging. Another question for us; if Furman does actually get a bid, will we be willing to step up with the money to get a home game?

The first round is Thanksgiving weekend, historically a terrible gate for all the home teams. Based on the average attendance this year, there might not be more than 3,000 fans at the game. It would cost too much money to take that chance.

[purplehorse]

If Wofford beats PC but loses to Western I would think a 6-4 FU team (6-2 in conference) would get in the playoffs over a 7-4 Wofford Team (5-3 in conference) and we beat them head-to-head...and we would have won 4 in a row with good losses. If ETSU beats Sammy (unlikely) Sammy would be 6-5 (assuming they beat Citadel) and 5-3 in conference. We would get in playoffs before Sammy. Unlikely but I still think POSSIBLE for FU to get in playoffs.

[Davemeister]

All of this talk is encouraging. Another question for us; if Furman does actually get a bid, will we be willing to step up with the money to get a home game?

The first round is Thanksgiving weekend, historically a terrible gate for all the home teams. Based on the average attendance this year, there might not be more than 3,000 fans at the game. It would cost too much money to take that chance.

Bingo.