With the first 3 spots pretty much assured in some order between WC, UNCG and ETSU and the bottom 3 spots pretty much assured in some order with Citadel, WCU and VMI that leaves 4-7 to be decided between FU, UTC, Mercer and Samford. There's really no difference in finishing 4 or 5th as these 2 will play in round 2 of the tourney. Finishing 6th means you most likely face the #3 team the first game and would have to beat the top 3 in 3 days, barring upsets.
Finishing 7th would be the worst case as it would mean an extra game. FU and UTC have 4 home and 5 away left. Samford and Mercer have 5 home and 4 away left. Bad news for FU is we have all 3 teams we are battling on the road left. UTC has Samford and Mercer on the road. Samford only has Mercer on the road. Mercer has all 3 at home just the opposite of FU. Based on this the scheduling advantage ranks like this: 1. Mercer, 2. Samford, 3. UTC, 4. Furman.
In regards to the top teams FU has all 3 at home, UTC has all 3 at home, Samford has ETSU and WC at home and Mercer has WC and UNCG at home. Just going by the schedule it looks like FU has the hardest road to finishing either 4th or 5th.
The good news is we have a two game lead on both Mercer and Samford even though the schedule heavily favors both Mercer and Samford. We really need to beat the bottom 3, take 2 of 3 between the teams we are battling and steal at least one at home against the top 3. That would give us a 6-3 second half record which should be enough to finish 4th or 5th. Beating Mercer and Samford on the road will be tough. If we could beat Mercer on the road next Saturday, that would give us the tie-breaker. with them. It could really come down to the last week when we are at Samford and UTC. Time will tell. Below is what each team has left:
FU: Home: ETSU, UNCG, VMI, WC
Away: Citadel, Mercer, WCU, Samford, UTC
UTC: Home: ETSU, UNCG, WC, FU
Away: VMI, Samford, Citadel, Mercer, WCU
SAM: Home: ETSU, WCU, UTC, FU, WC
Away: UNCG, VMI, Mecer, Citadel
Mercer: Home: WC, FU, Samford, UTC, UNCG
Road: WCU, ETSU, VMI, Citadel
Finishing 7th would be the worst case as it would mean an extra game. FU and UTC have 4 home and 5 away left. Samford and Mercer have 5 home and 4 away left. Bad news for FU is we have all 3 teams we are battling on the road left. UTC has Samford and Mercer on the road. Samford only has Mercer on the road. Mercer has all 3 at home just the opposite of FU. Based on this the scheduling advantage ranks like this: 1. Mercer, 2. Samford, 3. UTC, 4. Furman.
In regards to the top teams FU has all 3 at home, UTC has all 3 at home, Samford has ETSU and WC at home and Mercer has WC and UNCG at home. Just going by the schedule it looks like FU has the hardest road to finishing either 4th or 5th.
The good news is we have a two game lead on both Mercer and Samford even though the schedule heavily favors both Mercer and Samford. We really need to beat the bottom 3, take 2 of 3 between the teams we are battling and steal at least one at home against the top 3. That would give us a 6-3 second half record which should be enough to finish 4th or 5th. Beating Mercer and Samford on the road will be tough. If we could beat Mercer on the road next Saturday, that would give us the tie-breaker. with them. It could really come down to the last week when we are at Samford and UTC. Time will tell. Below is what each team has left:
FU: Home: ETSU, UNCG, VMI, WC
Away: Citadel, Mercer, WCU, Samford, UTC
UTC: Home: ETSU, UNCG, WC, FU
Away: VMI, Samford, Citadel, Mercer, WCU
SAM: Home: ETSU, WCU, UTC, FU, WC
Away: UNCG, VMI, Mecer, Citadel
Mercer: Home: WC, FU, Samford, UTC, UNCG
Road: WCU, ETSU, VMI, Citadel
