(12-0) #24 Furman @ LSU Friday Dec. 21st

[DungeonRealm]

[youwouldno]

Sadly, even if we beat LSU, I think we do not win at large bid, unless MAYBE we go 16-2 in the SoCon, and make it to finals of SoCon tourney. Too early to talk about this.


It would be great if we could win socon regular season championship, which guarantees an NIT bid.

Just keep winning!

If that scenario plays out, I think Furman would be 31-4. If they keep out a team with that record, then I'm not sure what to say.

Situations like that have happened before. Mid-majors have consistently been excluded. In other cases, teams have won their conference tourneys but gotten seeds that indicated they likely would not have gotten an at-large bid.

One comparison would be Stephen F Austin in 2013, who went 26-3 in the regular season, with 3 away losses (Texas A&M, average conference opponent, bad conference opponent) and a win over Oklahoma, who got an at-large as a 10 seed. SFA lost in the 2nd round of their conference by 2 points and was not even a bubble team for the NCAA tournament.

Another example would be 2016 St. Mary's, who went 25-4 in the regular season, beat Gonzaga twice, and a solid BYU team, and lost to Gonzaga in the WCC conference finals. They were excluded and finished #34 in Pomeroy (it's very common for non-power schools to be excluded despite ranking in the top 40 of the computer rankings). St. Mary's was excluded again last year with a 27-4 regular season schedule, wins against NM State, BYU, and 4-seed Gonzaga, and #32 in Pomeroy.

Basically, Furman is not going to get an at-large bid under essentially any circumstances, other than not losing a single game until a close SoCon tourney final loss to Wofford or UNC-G, which is so improbable as to not really matter. The team's chances to just win the SoCon tourney are thousands of times higher.

[gman]

One game at a time. Beat LSU.

[Paul C]

Yep, as a mid-major the game sure is rigged against us....

[tya1]

The website TeamRankings currently gives Furman a 100% chance of making the NCAA with 33, 32, or 31 wins (regular season plus SoCon tournament = 33 possible games); a 99.6% chance with 30 wins; 97.2% chance with 29 wins; 85.6% chance with 28 wins; and 56% chance with 27 wins. That site has several pages of statistical info and predictions aimed mainly at gamblers, but interesting for daily snapshots of the season. They predict a 35.7% chance of making the NCAAs. That is based on a 19.3% chance of winning the SoCon tournament and a 16.3% chance of an at-large bid.

TeamRankings also predicts Furman's final most likely regular season record as 24-6. Second most likely record is 25-5. Interestingly, the Paladins are only underdogs in 4 games the rest of the season - at LSU, ETSU, UNCG, and Wofford. Wofford is conference favorite for both regular season and tournament.

If there was a year for the SoCon to have a shot at two bids it might be this year. Multiple teams with very good records and a few notable wins OOC and also several prominent P5+2 conferences are having down years. I looked through the Sagarin numbers and see 30 teams from those leagues that would probably be in today. That leaves 6 more at large bids up for grabs. The A10 is looking more and more like a 1 bid league. They had 3 last year. Somebody has to get them.

Chances this week to make a case. Paladins at LSU. Wofford at #17 Mississippi State. Today Mercer is at Florida, WCU at #23 Iowa.

[youwouldno]

The website TeamRankings currently gives Furman a 100% chance of making the NCAA with 33, 32, or 31 wins (regular season plus SoCon tournament = 33 possible games); a 99.6% chance with 30 wins; 97.2% chance with 29 wins; 85.6% chance with 28 wins; and 56% chance with 27 wins. That site has several pages of statistical info and predictions aimed mainly at gamblers, but interesting for daily snapshots of the season. They predict a 35.7% chance of making the NCAAs. That is based on a 19.3% chance of winning the SoCon tournament and a 16.3% chance of an at-large bid.

TeamRankings also predicts Furman's final most likely regular season record as 24-6. Second most likely record is 25-5. Interestingly, the Paladins are only underdogs in 4 games the rest of the season - at LSU, ETSU, UNCG, and Wofford. Wofford is conference favorite for both regular season and tournament.

If there was a year for the SoCon to have a shot at two bids it might be this year. Multiple teams with very good records and a few notable wins OOC and also several prominent P5+2 conferences are having down years. I looked through the Sagarin numbers and see 30 teams from those leagues that would probably be in today. That leaves 6 more at large bids up for grabs. The A10 is looking more and more like a 1 bid league. They had 3 last year. Somebody has to get them.

Chances this week to make a case. Paladins at LSU. Wofford at #17 Mississippi State. Today Mercer is at Florida, WCU at #23 Iowa.

The model isn't designed for a school like Furman, and that's why it breaks down. Furman will not get an at large bid, period, end of story. 30 wins will not even get Furman to the fringes of the bubble.

Now, if Wofford had beaten 3 out of North Carolina, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Mississippi State (pending), and then dominated the SoCon, in that scenario they would legitimately be on the bubble. A #73 team in Pomeroy would be expected to pull that off about 1 time out of 3,000.

The odds of the SoCon getting an at-large bid in the next 50 years, barring a major change in the selection criteria and/or tournament, is probably in the range of 10%. For one team, one time.

[apaladin]

They have to take those below average 13-14 loss teams from the power conferences which is ridiculous. That is why I have always said take no more than half a conference at most.

[dinhead]

It appears to be just the streaming service for the SEC network; no fee (I hope). Otherwise, I’ll follow the game stats.

Flagman is correct. It's just like the ACC Network that is streaming until next football season when it will actually have a "channel". If you go to www.watchespn.com and click on upcoming and then click on the 21st it is listed at 8PM.


[/quote)

There is an SEC channel that televises basketball but this game is on their streaming network which is similar to ESPN+ . I guess the + always means internet only.

[dinhead]

The website TeamRankings currently gives Furman a 100% chance of making the NCAA with 33, 32, or 31 wins (regular season plus SoCon tournament = 33 possible games); a 99.6% chance with 30 wins; 97.2% chance with 29 wins; 85.6% chance with 28 wins; and 56% chance with 27 wins. That site has several pages of statistical info and predictions aimed mainly at gamblers, but interesting for daily snapshots of the season. They predict a 35.7% chance of making the NCAAs. That is based on a 19.3% chance of winning the SoCon tournament and a 16.3% chance of an at-large bid.

TeamRankings also predicts Furman's final most likely regular season record as 24-6. Second most likely record is 25-5. Interestingly, the Paladins are only underdogs in 4 games the rest of the season - at LSU, ETSU, UNCG, and Wofford. Wofford is conference favorite for both regular season and tournament.

If there was a year for the SoCon to have a shot at two bids it might be this year. Multiple teams with very good records and a few notable wins OOC and also several prominent P5+2 conferences are having down years. I looked through the Sagarin numbers and see 30 teams from those leagues that would probably be in today. That leaves 6 more at large bids up for grabs. The A10 is looking more and more like a 1 bid league. They had 3 last year. Somebody has to get them.

Chances this week to make a case. Paladins at LSU. Wofford at #17 Mississippi State. Today Mercer is at Florida, WCU at #23 Iowa.

The model isn't designed for a school like Furman, and that's why it breaks down. Furman will not get an at large bid, period, end of story. 30 wins will not even get Furman to the fringes of the bubble.

Now, if Wofford had beaten 3 out of North Carolina, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Mississippi State (pending), and then dominated the SoCon, in that scenario they would legitimately be on the bubble. A #73 team in Pomeroy would be expected to pull that off about 1 time out of 3,000.

The odds of the SoCon getting an at-large bid in the next 50 years, barring a major change in the selection criteria and/or tournament, is probably in the range of 10%. For one team, one time.

It certainly would be a real long shot but Villanova could help us out a lot if they finish in the top 10 and if we beat an LSU team that finishes in the top 25 we'd have at least two very impressive wins. It was great to see Gardner-Webb beat Georgia Tech by ten last night for their 6th straight win. That's the kind of help we'll need even if we lose in the conference finals and finish with just 3 or 4 losses.

It could all come down to the coattails of the teams we've beaten and the weak non-conference schedule (now 341 in the Sagerin) is not going to help us out much. In fact, the non-D-1 games don't even count so a 29-4 record is really 26-4 and the selection committee doesn't take kindly to non D-1 games. They might even hold it against us.

[dinhead]

Sadly, even if we beat LSU, I think we do not win at large bid, unless MAYBE we go 16-2 in the SoCon, and make it to finals of SoCon tourney. Too early to talk about this.


It would be great if we could win socon regular season championship, which guarantees an NIT bid.

Just keep winning!

If that scenario plays out, I think Furman would be 31-4. If they keep out a team with that record, then I'm not sure what to say.

Situations like that have happened before. Mid-majors have consistently been excluded. In other cases, teams have won their conference tourneys but gotten seeds that indicated they likely would not have gotten an at-large bid.

One comparison would be Stephen F Austin in 2013, who went 26-3 in the regular season, with 3 away losses (Texas A&M, average conference opponent, bad conference opponent) and a win over Oklahoma, who got an at-large as a 10 seed. SFA lost in the 2nd round of their conference by 2 points and was not even a bubble team for the NCAA tournament.

Another example would be 2016 St. Mary's, who went 25-4 in the regular season, beat Gonzaga twice, and a solid BYU team, and lost to Gonzaga in the WCC conference finals. They were excluded and finished #34 in Pomeroy (it's very common for non-power schools to be excluded despite ranking in the top 40 of the computer rankings). St. Mary's was excluded again last year with a 27-4 regular season schedule, wins against NM State, BYU, and 4-seed Gonzaga, and #32 in Pomeroy.

Basically, Furman is not going to get an at-large bid under essentially any circumstances, other than not losing a single game until a close SoCon tourney final loss to Wofford or UNC-G, which is so improbable as to not really matter. The team's chances to just win the SoCon tourney are thousands of times higher.

Very good examples of how mid-majors with great records and weak schedules get screwed even with good wins. You can add Monmouth University to that list. They had several big time major college wins and a great record but one loss to Army did them in. Just one loss to a Citadel or VMI will sink our chances and upsets like that are fairly common in the SoCon no matter how good you are.

[DungeonRealm]

Not that we needed any more motivation than we already have, but.....................
http://www.cbssports.com/general/video/ ... 21833f871c

[Flagman]

Not that we needed any more motivation than we already have, but.....................
http://www.cbssports.com/general/video/ ... 21833f871c

So, what does he know, other than our record and we are a mid-major. In his mind mid-majors aren’t supposed to beat “majors”.

[furpop16]

Not that we needed any more motivation than we already have, but.....................
http://www.cbssports.com/general/video/ ... 21833f871c

What a load. The guy only speaks in generalities "That's just the reality of mid-major scheduling". He doesn't reference any player or coach specifics, not to mention game tactics or strategy. He simply falls back on the KenPom ratings, which we've beaten to death on the board elsewhere.

I'd love for the guys to put on a whoopin' just to hear this fum duck explain himself.

[gman]

Not that we needed any more motivation than we already have, but.....................
http://www.cbssports.com/general/video/ ... 21833f871c

I wonder if he has watched us play? Of course, he might be looking at our SOS, which is 330. Best LSU.

[MNORM]

It is free on the ESPN app. You can watch it on your big screen.

Hate to be the one to bring bad news but the game is not free or even accessible to most. Unless you pay extra for the SEC package you don’t get SEC+.
I have ESPN3, pay for ESPN+ and I have the basic SEC network but I cannot watch SEC+. Apparently it’s linked to your cable package. So...if you have ATT U-verse without the add-on sports package you’re out of luck.
Anyone else know of a way to watch the game apart from driving to Baton Rouge? Viewing party?