SoCon Title/Playoffs

[The Jackal]

I agree. I think we need to keep seeing South Dakota State win and stay in the number 1 spot. We can deal with them in Frisco.

It's hard to know if the media is pushing the narrative, because Furman has stayed #2. Perhaps the media with the largest social media followings have been pushing the narrative, but the majority of the media still has Furman #2.

All Furman can do is keep winning its own football games. The Committee put Furman in the top 4 a few weeks ago, and Furman has beaten a top 15 team on the road since that time.

Also of a little note, the #7 team in the country right now is NC Central, who in all likelihood won't be in the playoffs as the MEAC champion.

[stonemd]

I keep working Twitter hard putting out the reasons Furman should be seeded at least 2

No fcs losses
3 ranked win
1 win over once ranked team
Defense travels
SOCON success in 2022 playoffs

[FUBeAR]

IF Furman plays well enough and is fortunate enough to defeat VMI and Wofford, Furman will have EARNED at least the #2 Seed in the FCS Playoffs.

FUBeAR doesn't really care if it's #1 or #2 as the BIG prize is the Home Semifinal game. If things go 'chalk' and we play #4 or #3 at home...it doesn't really matter...they will both be outstanding Teams that we will need to be able to defeat to EARN the right to go to the National Championship game.

That said ... as Jackal said ... 'All Furman can do is keep winning games.' - AWESOME AND TRUE.

FU Fans and media-adjacent types, OTOH, CAN do more. If you accept that Playoff Selection Committee Members' decisions can be influenced by the Media (and, with the STATS MEDIA Poll now an "official" part of the process, by definition, they ARE affected), then we can do our parts to PUBLICLY tell the FU Football story and to PUBLICLY reject the false, yet pervasive narrative, that Big Sky Football is better than SoCon Football.

Here's some info FUBeAR compiled this morning...shout it from on high!

So...FUBeAR keeps reading all of these Big Sky Fans and Big Sky FanBoys in the national FCS media talking about how much stronger the Big Sky Conference is than the SoCon and this is the reason why Montana, Idaho, and Montana State all should be Ranked/Seeded higher than Furman...even though Furman's current resume (FCS losses / Ranked Wins / etc.) is better than any of those 3, and (assuming wins over VMI and Wofford - no easy task!) will be better than any of those 3 when Playoff Seeds are determined.

Well - we all know that everyone hates using "transitive properties" / "transitive scores" to compare Teams that haven't played and we all know (though some refuse to admit) that Strength of Schedule calculations ALL have both bias flaws and circular logic flaws built into them. So....the best we can do is evaluate head-to-head matchups. Right?

Below is the entire history of SoCon vs. Big Sky Football - this is inclusive of Current Teams in either conference facing off against Teams from the other conference when both Teams were members of their respective conferences. None of these are very recent. So, one can make the argument that they are irrelevant. Well, unless one also accepts the arguments that subjective opinions, transitive results, and badly flawed strength of schedule calculations are also irrelevant, FUBeAR doesn't accept the recency argument.

So...we are left with resumes...and Furman's resume is just better - despite all of the Fan & Media FanBoy claims.

Here's the COMPLETE history of Big Sky vs. SoCon matchups - pretty even, with a slight edge to the SoCon - except when Big Sky Teams travel to the SoCon. Then they get their butts kicked about 42-10....Y'all come on down! You ain't skeered, is you? We understand that NO BIG SKY FOOTBALL TEAM HAS EVER WON AN AWAY GAME AGAINST A SOCON FOOTBALL TEAM...but we're really hospitable otherwise.

Winner Loser Date Season Location Score Notes
Chattanooga Weber State 11/26/2016 2016 Finley Stadium, Chattanooga, TN 45 - 14 1st Round
Wofford Montana 11/24/2007 2007 Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula, MT 23 - 22 1st Round
Montana State Furman 11/25/2006 2006 Bobcat Stadium, Bozeman, MT 31 - 13 1st Round of Playoffs
Montana Furman 12/21/2001 2001 Neutral - Finley Stadium, Chattanooga, TN 13 - 6 National Championship
Montana ETSU 12/7/1996 1996 Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula, MT 44 - 14 Playoff Quarterfinal
Furman Northern Arizona 11/30/1996 1996 Walkup Skydome, Flagstaff, AZ 42 - 31 1st Round
Furman Idaho 12/10/1988 1988 Paladin Stadium, Greenville, SC 38 - 7 Playoff Semifinal

SoCon Wins SoCon Losses
4 3

SoCon Home Wins SoCon Home Losses
2 0

SoCon Away Wins SoCon Away Losses
2 2

SoCon Neutral Wins SoCon Neutral Losses
0 1

[The Jackal]

Good grief.

I just looked at #10 North Dakota's resume. They are currently 6-3.

They beat a probably-not-that-good North Dakota State.

Other than that, they have wins over Northern Arizona (3-6), WIU (0-9), Indiana State (0-9), and Murray State (2-7).

[Roundball]

[Affirm]

IF Furman plays well enough and is fortunate enough to defeat VMI and Wofford, Furman will have EARNED at least the #2 Seed in the FCS Playoffs.

FUBeAR doesn't really care if it's #1 or #2 as the BIG prize is the Home Semifinal game. If things go 'chalk' and we play #4 or #3 at home...it doesn't really matter...they will both be outstanding Teams that we will need to be able to defeat to EARN the right to go to the National Championship game.

That said ... as Jackal said ... 'All Furman can do is keep winning games.' - AWESOME AND TRUE.

FU Fans and media-adjacent types, OTOH, CAN do more. If you accept that Playoff Selection Committee Members' decisions can be influenced by the Media (and, with the STATS MEDIA Poll now an "official" part of the process, by definition, they ARE affected), then we can do our parts to PUBLICLY tell the FU Football story and to PUBLICLY reject the false, yet pervasive narrative, that Big Sky Football is better than SoCon Football.

Here's some info FUBeAR compiled this morning...shout it from on high!

So...FUBeAR keeps reading all of these Big Sky Fans and Big Sky FanBoys in the national FCS media talking about how much stronger the Big Sky Conference is than the SoCon and this is the reason why Montana, Idaho, and Montana State all should be Ranked/Seeded higher than Furman...even though Furman's current resume (FCS losses / Ranked Wins / etc.) is better than any of those 3, and (assuming wins over VMI and Wofford - no easy task!) will be better than any of those 3 when Playoff Seeds are determined.

Well - we all know that everyone hates using "transitive properties" / "transitive scores" to compare Teams that haven't played and we all know (though some refuse to admit) that Strength of Schedule calculations ALL have both bias flaws and circular logic flaws built into them. So....the best we can do is evaluate head-to-head matchups. Right?

Below is the entire history of SoCon vs. Big Sky Football - this is inclusive of Current Teams in either conference facing off against Teams from the other conference when both Teams were members of their respective conferences. None of these are very recent. So, one can make the argument that they are irrelevant. Well, unless one also accepts the arguments that subjective opinions, transitive results, and badly flawed strength of schedule calculations are also irrelevant, FUBeAR doesn't accept the recency argument.

So...we are left with resumes...and Furman's resume is just better - despite all of the Fan & Media FanBoy claims.

Here's the COMPLETE history of Big Sky vs. SoCon matchups - pretty even, with a slight edge to the SoCon - except when Big Sky Teams travel to the SoCon. Then they get their butts kicked about 42-10....Y'all come on down! You ain't skeered, is you? We understand that NO BIG SKY FOOTBALL TEAM HAS EVER WON AN AWAY GAME AGAINST A SOCON FOOTBALL TEAM...but we're really hospitable otherwise.

Winner Loser Date Season Location Score Notes
Chattanooga Weber State 11/26/2016 2016 Finley Stadium, Chattanooga, TN 45 - 14 1st Round
Wofford Montana 11/24/2007 2007 Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula, MT 23 - 22 1st Round
Montana State Furman 11/25/2006 2006 Bobcat Stadium, Bozeman, MT 31 - 13 1st Round of Playoffs
Montana Furman 12/21/2001 2001 Neutral - Finley Stadium, Chattanooga, TN 13 - 6 National Championship
Montana ETSU 12/7/1996 1996 Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula, MT 44 - 14 Playoff Quarterfinal
Furman Northern Arizona 11/30/1996 1996 Walkup Skydome, Flagstaff, AZ 42 - 31 1st Round
Furman Idaho 12/10/1988 1988 Paladin Stadium, Greenville, SC 38 - 7 Playoff Semifinal

SoCon Wins SoCon Losses
4 3

SoCon Home Wins SoCon Home Losses
2 0

SoCon Away Wins SoCon Away Losses
2 2

SoCon Neutral Wins SoCon Neutral Losses
0 1

Wish I really had the time to read EVERYTHING posted by FUBeAR.

[FUBeAR]

IF Furman plays well enough and is fortunate enough to defeat VMI and Wofford, Furman will have EARNED at least the #2 Seed in the FCS Playoffs.

FUBeAR doesn't really care if it's #1 or #2 as the BIG prize is the Home Semifinal game. If things go 'chalk' and we play #4 or #3 at home...it doesn't really matter...they will both be outstanding Teams that we will need to be able to defeat to EARN the right to go to the National Championship game.

That said ... as Jackal said ... 'All Furman can do is keep winning games.' - AWESOME AND TRUE.

FU Fans and media-adjacent types, OTOH, CAN do more. If you accept that Playoff Selection Committee Members' decisions can be influenced by the Media (and, with the STATS MEDIA Poll now an "official" part of the process, by definition, they ARE affected), then we can do our parts to PUBLICLY tell the FU Football story and to PUBLICLY reject the false, yet pervasive narrative, that Big Sky Football is better than SoCon Football.

Here's some info FUBeAR compiled this morning...shout it from on high!

So...FUBeAR keeps reading all of these Big Sky Fans and Big Sky FanBoys in the national FCS media talking about how much stronger the Big Sky Conference is than the SoCon and this is the reason why Montana, Idaho, and Montana State all should be Ranked/Seeded higher than Furman...even though Furman's current resume (FCS losses / Ranked Wins / etc.) is better than any of those 3, and (assuming wins over VMI and Wofford - no easy task!) will be better than any of those 3 when Playoff Seeds are determined.

Well - we all know that everyone hates using "transitive properties" / "transitive scores" to compare Teams that haven't played and we all know (though some refuse to admit) that Strength of Schedule calculations ALL have both bias flaws and circular logic flaws built into them. So....the best we can do is evaluate head-to-head matchups. Right?

Below is the entire history of SoCon vs. Big Sky Football - this is inclusive of Current Teams in either conference facing off against Teams from the other conference when both Teams were members of their respective conferences. None of these are very recent. So, one can make the argument that they are irrelevant. Well, unless one also accepts the arguments that subjective opinions, transitive results, and badly flawed strength of schedule calculations are also irrelevant, FUBeAR doesn't accept the recency argument.

So...we are left with resumes...and Furman's resume is just better - despite all of the Fan & Media FanBoy claims.

Here's the COMPLETE history of Big Sky vs. SoCon matchups - pretty even, with a slight edge to the SoCon - except when Big Sky Teams travel to the SoCon. Then they get their butts kicked about 42-10....Y'all come on down! You ain't skeered, is you? We understand that NO BIG SKY FOOTBALL TEAM HAS EVER WON AN AWAY GAME AGAINST A SOCON FOOTBALL TEAM...but we're really hospitable otherwise.

Winner Loser Date Season Location Score Notes
Chattanooga Weber State 11/26/2016 2016 Finley Stadium, Chattanooga, TN 45 - 14 1st Round
Wofford Montana 11/24/2007 2007 Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula, MT 23 - 22 1st Round
Montana State Furman 11/25/2006 2006 Bobcat Stadium, Bozeman, MT 31 - 13 1st Round of Playoffs
Montana Furman 12/21/2001 2001 Neutral - Finley Stadium, Chattanooga, TN 13 - 6 National Championship
Montana ETSU 12/7/1996 1996 Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula, MT 44 - 14 Playoff Quarterfinal
Furman Northern Arizona 11/30/1996 1996 Walkup Skydome, Flagstaff, AZ 42 - 31 1st Round
Furman Idaho 12/10/1988 1988 Paladin Stadium, Greenville, SC 38 - 7 Playoff Semifinal

SoCon Wins SoCon Losses
4 3

SoCon Home Wins SoCon Home Losses
2 0

SoCon Away Wins SoCon Away Losses
2 2

SoCon Neutral Wins SoCon Neutral Losses
0 1

Wish I really had the time to read EVERYTHING posted by FUBeAR.

Cliff Notes are available in the Furman Bookstore

[cavedweller2]

I have also contacted Freebird to get him to come paraphrase. He has skills like that.

[gofurman]

We have to admit two things.

There is probably a bias. Have to do better in playoffs to stop the bias. Of course it’s hard to do better in playoffs when you are on road !!!

What we can control is we Havent exactly made sexy scores. Admit it. We Havent. Just beating Western and UTC by any amount is enough. Just win. But v ETSU 16-8. and Citadel and …. That isn’t helping us . It doesn’t. If I am. Pollster I look quickly at scores and not box scores. Right or wrong. Just win. But it wouldn’t hurt to put a whooping in on one both of the last two. Which won’t be easy. But if the opportunity is there let’s win by 20. These 16-8 scores don’t sell unfortunately

[The Jackal]

I honestly don't think it really has specifically anything to do with Furman's scorelines. As I see it:

(1) Furman's strength of schedule is lower than many of the MVFC and Big Sky teams. Furman can't help that they scheduled a perennial FCS power in Kennesaw State that decided to transition to FBS and play only 9 games. Furman can't help that some of their SoCon teams stunk this year.

(2) The SoCon cannot insulate itself because every team plays every team. In these other FCS conferences, schools don't have to play some of the other top schools in their own conference.

For instance, North Dakota is #10. They don't play #11 SIU.

There are 7 other teams besides #8 Delaware in the CAA with a winning record right now. Delaware plays only three of them this season.

Hypothetically, if the SoCon was, say 12 teams, and team like Samford - ranked high to begin the season - didn't play Western Carolina, but instead played another "meh" team. They'd be 6-3 right now, ranked in the top 25, and Furman's strength of schedule would look better. Same Samford team. They just give the appearance of being better because they avoid the circular firing squad that is SoCon football.

[FUBeAR]

I honestly don't think it really has specifically anything to do with Furman's scorelines. As I see it:

(1) Furman's strength of schedule is lower than many of the MVFC and Big Sky teams. Furman can't help that they scheduled a perennial FCS power in Kennesaw State that decided to transition to FBS and play only 9 games. Furman can't help that some of their SoCon teams stunk this year.

(2) The SoCon cannot insulate itself because every team plays every team. In these other FCS conferences, schools don't have to play some of the other top schools in their own conference.

For instance, North Dakota is #10. They don't play #11 SIU.

There are 7 other teams besides #8 Delaware in the CAA with a winning record right now. Delaware plays only three of them this season.

Hypothetically, if the SoCon was, say 12 teams, and team like Samford - ranked high to begin the season - didn't play Western Carolina, but instead played another "meh" team. They'd be 6-3 right now, ranked in the top 25, and Furman's strength of schedule would look better. Same Samford team. They just give the appearance of being better because they avoid the circular firing squad that is SoCon football.

Correct that scores don't really matter -- In fact, with these HIGHLY FLAWED, via historical data and circular logic, Strength of Schedule calculations, Teams doing better scoring-wise against an undefeated in FCS Team like Furman MAY raise their 'strength' thereby raising FU's "strength of schedule"

And correct that SoS is the primary EXCUSE pundits AND THE COMMITTEE will use to screw Furman out of a Top 2 or even Top 4 seed, but FUBeAR will leave this here...This guy know his stuff and FUBeAR likes his conclusion -

RESUME (or SoR (Strength of Record - which FU's will be UNDEFEATED IN FCS)) > F'd up SoS Calculations - which are 'explanations" (AKA excuses)...NOT Metrics!!

[The Jackal]

I seem to raise this issue every year, but I question whether a 9 team SoCon is hurting our teams and conference brand.

I like the format. I like the idea of playing everyone. I just think our conference model may be a dinosaur at this point for football.

[HKB60]

Right now all we need to focus on is beating VMI! We can't worry about how the selection committee seeds the Paladins. We finish off the Keydets and Terriers and we should stay #2! But for now, BEAT THE KEYDETS!!!

[FUBeAR]

Right now all we need to focus on is beating VMI! We can't worry about how the selection committee seeds the Paladins. We finish off the Keydets and Terriers and we should stay #2! But for now, BEAT THE KEYDETS!!!

Sounds like you’re suiting up this Saturday. AWESOME!

WE, as (only) Fans / Alums are people with the ability to create ‘content’ which may contain persuasive facts / arguments that can reach the eyes & ears of the individual Members of the Playoff Selection Committee; facts & arguments that may influence their decisions.

For example … Did you know…

1) NO BIG SKY TEAM HAS EVER WON AN AWAY GAME AGAINST A SoCon TEAM

2) 42-10 or 32 points or 5 scores is the average score/margin of victory for Home SoCon Teams over Visiting Big Sky Teams (no wonder they want to ‘fix’ the Seeding)

3) SoCon Teams playing @ Big Sky Teams have a 0.500 winning % (vs. 0.000 the other way…as noted in #1)

4) SoCon Teams enjoy a 0.571 winning % over Big Sky Teams

FUBeAR bets that you didn’t and FUBeAR bets that none of the Committee Members did either. FUBeAR bets that some of them do know these FACTS now.

And…These are facts, not the flawed calculations, or specious claims, or ‘good by association’ claims, or subjective opinions that are being used by the FCS Media and Fans/Alums of Big Sky / MVFC Teams to beat the ear drums and flashin front of the eyes of the Committee Members non-stop until Selection Sunday.

Hope to be able to find out that FUBeAR is wrong AND hope that FUBeAR is wrong, but FUBeAR believes IF we beat VMI & Wofford AND there are no upsets in the Big Sky AND SDSU doesn’t lose 2x, there is at least a 51% chance Furman will NOT be a Top 4 Seed, much less a #2 seed.

[Affirm]

Right now all we need to focus on is beating VMI! We can't worry about how the selection committee seeds the Paladins. We finish off the Keydets and Terriers and we should stay #2! But for now, BEAT THE KEYDETS!!!

Sounds like you’re suiting up this Saturday. AWESOME!

WE, as (only) Fans / Alums are people with the ability to create ‘content’ which may contain persuasive facts / arguments that can reach the eyes & ears of the individual Members of the Playoff Selection Committee; facts & arguments that may influence their decisions.

For example … Did you know…

1) NO BIG SKY TEAM HAS EVER WON AN AWAY GAME AGAINST A SoCon TEAM

2) 42-10 or 32 points or 5 scores is the average score/margin of victory for Home SoCon Teams over Visiting Big Sky Teams (no wonder they want to ‘fix’ the Seeding)

3) SoCon Teams playing @ Big Sky Teams have a 0.500 winning % (vs. 0.000 the other way…as noted in #1)

4) SoCon Teams enjoy a 0.571 winning % over Big Sky Teams

FUBeAR bets that you didn’t and FUBeAR bets that none of the Committee Members did either. FUBeAR bets that some of them do know these FACTS now.

And…These are facts, not the flawed calculations, or specious claims, or ‘good by association’ claims, or subjective opinions that are being used by the FCS Media and Fans/Alums of Big Sky / MVFC Teams to beat the ear drums and flashin front of the eyes of the Committee Members non-stop until Selection Sunday.

Hope to be able to find out that FUBeAR is wrong AND hope that FUBeAR is wrong, but FUBeAR believes IF we beat VMI & Wofford AND there are no upsets in the Big Sky AND SDSU doesn’t lose 2x, there is at least a 51% chance Furman will NOT be a Top 4 Seed, much less a #2 seed.

Thank you!
Thank you!
Thank you!
And I too hope you are wrong, as you hope you are, about your belief as stated in your final paragraph.