SoCon Title/Playoffs

[purplehorse123]

I would love to know when is the last time a southern conference team got in the playoffs at 7-4. True an occasional 7-4 team gets in the playoffs but that would be distinctly unusual for the southern conf. I do not see that happening at all…which is what I say every year.

And I think the chance of the sc getting 4 teams in the playoffs is the same as the Braves winning the WS. The southern conf is just not been highly respected for a while now.

[The Jackal]

I would love to know when is the last time a southern conference team got in the playoffs at 7-4. True an occasional 7-4 team gets in the playoffs but that would be distinctly unusual for the southern conf. I do not see that happening at all…which is what I say every year.

And I think the chance of the sc getting 4 teams in the playoffs is the same as the Braves winning the WS. The southern conf is just not been highly respected for a while now.

Not entirely sure, but Furman made it as a 7-4 team in Clay Hendrix's first season (2017). We beat Elon in round one and then lost to Wofford in round two.

[The Jackal]

UTC losing to FU in no way eliminates them from the playoffs. They are #14, losing to #2 drops them a couple of spots but still safe and secure well inside the top 25. Their game with Alabama will have very little bearing.

It does not mathematically eliminate them, true.

It'd be nice for the committee to recognize the SoCon and give us a 7-4 bubble team as an at large. To be honest, they've give so many playoff spots to the CAA over the years only to watch them get blasted off the map, it'd be refreshing to see them give one of those spots to a SoCon team this season.

[apaladin]

I think most are forgetting the committee pretty much goes right down the line using the Stats poll when handing out at-large bids and UTC would definitely be in line for a bid, even at 7-4. They should still be in the top 20 which assures a bid.

[FUBeAR]

I think most are forgetting the committee pretty much goes right down the line using the Stats poll when handing out at-large bids and UTC would definitely be in line for a bid, even at 7-4. They should still be in the top 20 which assures a bid.

the 'pretty much' part leaves the committee plenty of room to screw the SoCon...but let's say you're right....

Chatt is #14 in STATS poll... WCU dropped 2 spots after losing to Furman and getting their 1st FCS loss. They dropped 6 spots after losing to Mercer and getting their 2nd FCS loss. Chatt losing to FU AND getting their 3rd FCS loss is going to drop them more than WCU dropped after losing to FU. Let's split the difference and say they fall 4 spots to #18...though, IFBO, it would be more...probably 6...or even more.

Playoff Field...

1-SDSU (8-0) - MVFC (1) AutoBid 1
2-Furman (7–1) - SoCon (1) AutoBid 2
3-Idaho (6–2) - Big Sky (1) AutoBid 3
4-Montana (7–1) - Big Sky (2) AtLarge 4
5-Delaware (7–1) - CAA (1) AutoBid 5
6-Montana State (6–2) - Big Sky (3) AtLarge 6
7-Sacramento State (6–2) - Big Sky (4) AtLarge 7
8-Incarnate Word (7–1) - Southland (1) AutoBid 8
9-South Dakota (6–2) - MVFC (2) AtLarge 9
10-Southern Illinois (6–2) - MVFC (3) AtLarge 10
11-North Dakota State (6–2) - MVFC (4) AtLarge 11
12-North Carolina Central (7–1) - CELEBRATION BOWL
13-North Dakota (5–3) - MVFC (5) AtLarge 12
14-Florida A&M (7–1) - SWAC Champ Game / CELEBRATION BOWL
15-Western Carolina (5–3) - SoCon (2) AtLarge 13
16-Villanova (6–2) - CAA (2) AtLarge 14
17-Northern Iowa (5–3) - MVFC (6) AtLarge 15
18-Chattanooga (7–4) - SoCon (3) AtLarge 16
19-Austin Peay (6–2) - UAC (1) AutoBid 17
20-Lafayette (7–1) - Patriot League (1) AutoBid 18
21-UT Martin (6–2) - Big South/OVC (1) AutoBid 19
22-Youngstown State (5–3) - MVFC (7) AtLarge 20
23-Albany (6–3) - CAA (3) AtLarge 21
24-William & Mary (5–3) - CAA (4) AtLarge 22
25-Mercer (6–3) - OH NO!!!!! NOT AGAIN

NEC AutoBid 23
PFL AutoBid 24


So...you're right...UNLESS Mercer gets to 8-3. In that case, FUBeAR thinks the Committee goes with 8-3 Mercer with a much better win (over then #10 WCU) than anything on Chatt's resume. Better Record / Better Win / Finishing with 4 wins streak vs. Finishing with 2 losses streak all trump the head-to-head

Also think they will SURELY want to put a 3rd CAA Team (Albany) before they put in a 3rd (or 4th) SoCon Team AND most likely they will want a 4th CAA Team (W&M) in before a 3rd (or 4th) SoCon Team in.

So ...then ... it comes down to 7 (Youngstown) for the MVFC or 3 (or 4) for the SoCon ... that's a toss-up.

So - @ 7-4 Chatt, IFBO, is SERIOUSLY 'on the bubble' and FUBeAR just sees many, many ways the Committee can and will find to justify keeping them out.

[Mocs123]

As for us having the bye week on week 11, I don't think Chattanooga had anything to do with scheduling it that way, but instead was the (bad) luck of the draw from the SoCon this year. I certainly get the impression that people in the program aren't thrilled about the bye weeks location this year, which is understandable.

While a loss this weekend doesn't eliminate the Mocs from playoff contention, it does put up precariously on the bubble and I am treating this as a must win type game. If we lose that loss to tUNA to start the season will certainly haunt us.

I just don't see the SoCon getting four teams in this year as our OOC schedule was particularly bad. Of course it's not Chattanooga and Furman's fault that a normally top 10 KSU team jumped ship and is playing an odd schedule sitting a bunch of their best players. ETSU played what would have been two great OOC games in JSU and APSU, but JSU went C-USA and ETSU has the Quarrels curse and got drilled by both. Wofford, who the SoCon can generally count on to be a solid team has been in the gutter and lost to W&M - which could have been a quality win. What's the SoCon's best OOC win....WCU over EKU?

And of course my Chattanooga Mocs didn't do ourselves or the SoCon any favors by losing to tUNA.

[Choir Boy]

As for us having the bye week on week 11, I don't think Chattanooga had anything to do with scheduling it that way, but instead was the (bad) luck of the draw from the SoCon this year. I certainly get the impression that people in the program aren't thrilled about the bye weeks location this year, which is understandable.

While a loss this weekend doesn't eliminate the Mocs from playoff contention, it does put up precariously on the bubble and I am treating this as a must win type game. If we lose that loss to tUNA to start the season will certainly haunt us.

I just don't see the SoCon getting four teams in this year as our OOC schedule was particularly bad. Of course it's not Chattanooga and Furman's fault that a normally top 10 KSU team jumped ship and is playing an odd schedule sitting a bunch of their best players. ETSU played what would have been two great OOC games in JSU and APSU, but JSU went C-USA and ETSU has the Quarrels curse and got drilled by both. Wofford, who the SoCon can generally count on to be a solid team has been in the gutter and lost to W&M - which could have been a quality win. What's the SoCon's best OOC win....WCU over EKU?

And of course my Chattanooga Mocs didn't do ourselves or the SoCon any favors by losing to tUNA.

Beat Bama and you are in

[The Jackal]

As for us having the bye week on week 11, I don't think Chattanooga had anything to do with scheduling it that way, but instead was the (bad) luck of the draw from the SoCon this year. I certainly get the impression that people in the program aren't thrilled about the bye weeks location this year, which is understandable.

While a loss this weekend doesn't eliminate the Mocs from playoff contention, it does put up precariously on the bubble and I am treating this as a must win type game. If we lose that loss to tUNA to start the season will certainly haunt us.

I just don't see the SoCon getting four teams in this year as our OOC schedule was particularly bad. Of course it's not Chattanooga and Furman's fault that a normally top 10 KSU team jumped ship and is playing an odd schedule sitting a bunch of their best players. ETSU played what would have been two great OOC games in JSU and APSU, but JSU went C-USA and ETSU has the Quarrels curse and got drilled by both. Wofford, who the SoCon can generally count on to be a solid team has been in the gutter and lost to W&M - which could have been a quality win. What's the SoCon's best OOC win....WCU over EKU?

And of course my Chattanooga Mocs didn't do ourselves or the SoCon any favors by losing to tUNA.

The out of conference schedules weren't bad, they were just played by the wrong teams.

[FUBeAR]

Sam Herder has finally started paying attention to FUBeAR. Still need to get him convinced that Furman should be the #2 Seed, but he has 4 SoCon Teams IN with Chatt making it after losing to FU. FUBeAR doesn’t even hate the brackets he’s drawn up…that much. Maybe he could swap Albany and Mercer…then we could have an All SoCon Semi-Finals!!

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-20 ... ns-3-bzbz/



Note - if he made FU the #2 seed, he would need to swap WCU & North Dakota

[The Jackal]

Mercer, having worked so hard for their first playoff bid, potentially gets a plane ticket to Grand Forks, North Dakota. If they survive UND, they get an early December road game as Washington-Grizzly Stadium. Would probably be glad to have it, though.

If the playoff bracket ends up that way, Mercer probably needs to mortgage the farm to get that first game in Macon. Those back to back road games would be brutal.

[The Jackal]

It's been interesting to watch the shift in FCS power westward.

It was always important to have a playoff seed. It helped. But when we compare Furman teams to those that were around 20-30 years ago, you almost have to mention that there are so many more barriers in progressing through the playoff field than their used to be.

In 2004, Furman was the #2 seed. There were only 16 teams and only 4 schools in the field west of the Mississippi (including one in Louisiana). James Madison won the national title that season having won every game on the road. Their longest road trip of the post season until the title game was playing at Furman, about a 6 hour drive.

Can you imagine a world now where an unseeded team played three road games in the post season and the furthest contest was still drivable? It's almost inconceivable. Currently structured, your first game may be in the neighborhood, but almost assuredly one of the next two games would be a cross country flight.

[wcugrad95]

Don't repeat this... ever... but I am with FUBeAR. No 7-4 SOCON team will make it. At the same time, I think this year any 8+ win team will make it. To get 4, UTC has to beat you guys. So we'll have as many as 4 (UTC as the auto-bid at 8-3, Furman still possibly seeded at 9-2, and Mercer and WCU at 8-3), or as few as 2 (Furman at a very high seed and 10-1, and either Mercer or WCU if only one of them gets to 8 wins). I am hopeful we have at least 3 in.

Mercer has 2 FCS losses, both to ranked SOCON teams. WCU has 2 FCS losses, both to now ranked SOCON teams (and both with our best player out). UTC has 2 FCS losses (1 that is hard to explain in game #1 and then a 2-point, last-second loss to a highly ranked SOCON team). And of course Furman has 0 FCS losses. That sounds a lot like the top beating up on each other and similar to all the talk about the other top leagues. Throw in a dangerous Samford team in the #5 slot and that is a pretty strong lineup. If Samford also beats UT-M in the last game, that will help the SOCON's cause, too. But I still don't see the committee giving a 7-4 SOCON team the nod over a bunch of other 7-4 type teams from the MVFC or any of the 8-win teams.

[FU Hoopla]

It's kinda absurd that South Dakota St. and North Dakota St. play 7 home games each and zero FBS games........
Also Montana St. and Montana play 6 home games each and zero FBS games...........


It's all a mirage..............

[youwouldno]

It's very, very hard for me to believe the SoCon would get zero at large bids, even by FCS standards of screwing the conference, that would really be a stretch.

[FUBeAR]

Don't repeat this... ever... but I am with FUBeAR. No 7-4 SOCON team will make it. At the same time, I think this year any 8+ win team will make it. To get 4, UTC has to beat you guys. So we'll have as many as 4 (UTC as the auto-bid at 8-3, Furman still possibly seeded at 9-2, and Mercer and WCU at 8-3), or as few as 2 (Furman at a very high seed and 10-1, and either Mercer or WCU if only one of them gets to 8 wins). I am hopeful we have at least 3 in.

Mercer has 2 FCS losses, both to ranked SOCON teams. WCU has 2 FCS losses, both to now ranked SOCON teams (and both with our best player out). UTC has 2 FCS losses (1 that is hard to explain in game #1 and then a 2-point, last-second loss to a highly ranked SOCON team). And of course Furman has 0 FCS losses. That sounds a lot like the top beating up on each other and similar to all the talk about the other top leagues. Throw in a dangerous Samford team in the #5 slot and that is a pretty strong lineup. If Samford also beats UT-M in the last game, that will help the SOCON's cause, too. But I still don't see the committee giving a 7-4 SOCON team the nod over a bunch of other 7-4 type teams from the MVFC or any of the 8-win teams.

FUBeAR has learned, whether or not it's 100% accurate - that who you beat is more important than who you lose to.

At present, these are (or will be) each 'candidate's' best wins...

1) Furman - WCU, Mercer, UTC (assumptively) - All solid, none stellar, but taken together, substantial enough
2) Mercer - WCU (at 8-3 (assumptively) and ranked in the Top 15 (most likely) and 'then-ranked' #9, this is a solid best win
3) UTC - Furman (but probably not, assumptively), so...Mercer (meh, then-ranked ORV and probably no higher than #20 on Selection Day)
4) WCU - UTC (at 7-4 (assumptively) and possibly unranked, this is NOT a great best win)

This doesn't mean too much when comparing against each other, but when comparing to PERCEPTIONS of "best wins" by Big Sky and MVFC At-Large Candidates, it will matter.