• "Smart money"

 #77630  by The Jackal
 Wed Oct 18, 2023 3:43 pm
I can totally understand why computers and pundits like WCU.

I think there’s a lot of stuff that the computers don’t pick up, though. WCU has probably played or is playing its best football in years. I don’t believe we’ve seen Furman’s best football yet this season.
Jasper liked this
 #77666  by gman84
 Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:03 am
We should stay home since we are going to get an a** whoopin!
FUBeAR liked this
 #77723  by gofurman
 Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:56 am
gman84 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:03 am
We should stay home since we are going to get an a** whoopin!
Vegas lines miss ALL THE TIME. Clemson was an 11 pt favorite to easily beat Duke. How did that go? Lol. Duke won by about 15 or 20. So the line was off by 25-30.
***. The line is nothing more than a number adjusted to get half the money on one side and half on the other. So half the people win and half lose. But you pay 11 to win 10. The winners get their 11 back plus the 10. Losers lose 11. So with the money split evenly house always wins the extra 10% off the losers. Usually more like 110 to win 100. House takes 10 from every loser in this case

Vegas doesn’t care one iota if the line misses by 33. As long as half money is on one side and half on the other.

More I think on it. To get that 50/5O I would guess the line to be about WCU -5
 #77736  by FUBeAR
 Fri Oct 20, 2023 8:11 am
Even FUBeAR’s guys, ColbyD and the Gulf Coast Guru, joined in with the unanimous chorus … they both took WCU +2 over the Paladins and called it a “LOCK” - Listen from about 37 minutes in…(if you click on the Tweet, then open the video, you can move it forward to the desired time by holding your finger in the video and sliding the timer that opens)

Coach Hendrix called it when he said WCU would be the favorite. If either Team has reason to have a ‘chip’ based on lack of respect given in this game, it’s certainly the one with the <F> on the helmet. Every FCS pundit in the land has already sized up WCU’s Players for their SoCon Championship rings.
AstroDin liked this
 #77737  by AstroDin
 Fri Oct 20, 2023 9:27 am
That is the classic problem with pundits and how they look at the glossy stuff.

They contradict themselves that Western isn't getting respect, but they disrespect Furman. They don't even mention Furman's defense? They again bring up that Furman only beat KSU by X, The Citadel by X, and only barely beat Samford on the road in a game played without a delay. It's funny how biases work; you fail to bring up comparative things.

Furman playing back-to-back road games, especially this one that's only a two-hour-plus bus ride, is physically not a factor.

We will see on Saturday if Cole Gonzales is the best QB Furman has faced all season. Better than Rattler, better than Hiers. Heck, better than Scott from Incarnate Word.

It sure doesn't sound like the DINS have a chance… whatever!
gman84 liked this
 #77738  by FUBeAR
 Fri Oct 20, 2023 9:32 am
AstroDin wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 9:27 am
That is the classic problem with pundits and how they look at the glossy stuff.

They contradict themselves that Western isn't getting respect, but they disrespect Furman. They don't even mention Furman's defense? They again bring up that Furman only beat KSU by X, The Citadel by X, and only barely beat Samford on the road in a game played without a delay. It's funny how biases work; you fail to bring up comparative things.

Furman playing back-to-back road games, especially this one that's only a two-hour-plus bus ride, is physically not a factor.

We will see on Saturday if Cole Gonzales is the best QB Furman has faced all season. Better than Rattler, better than Hiers. Heck, better than Scott from Incarnate Word.

It sure doesn't sound like the DINS have a chance… whatever!
In a very slight defense for GCG, that’s one of his regular ‘things.’ He places a lot of emphasis, when handicapping games, on the 2nd leg of 2 consecutive road games. Don’t know whether it works or not, but it’s his thing…and FUBeAR doesn’t think he considers distance a significant factor unless it’s like a San Diego to Stetson kinda thing.

FWIW…
Furman is 42-31-1 in such games since FUBeAR has been involved with the Paladins (1978 - Present).

More relevant - These Furman Players are 3-0 in such games over the past 2 seasons.
Last edited by FUBeAR on Fri Oct 20, 2023 11:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
AstroDin liked this
 #77741  by gofurman
 Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:06 am
AstroDin wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 9:27 am
That is the classic problem with pundits and how they look at the glossy stuff.

They contradict themselves that Western isn't getting respect, but they disrespect Furman. They don't even mention Furman's defense? They again bring up that Furman only beat KSU by X, The Citadel by X, and only barely beat Samford on the road in a game played without a delay. It's funny how biases work; you fail to bring up comparative things.

Furman playing back-to-back road games, especially this one that's only a two-hour-plus bus ride, is physically not a factor.

We will see on Saturday if Cole Gonzales is the best QB Furman has faced all season. Better than Rattler, better than Hiers. Heck, better than Scott from Incarnate Word.

It sure doesn't sound like the DINS have a chance… whatever!
Rattler is WAAAAAAAAAAAAY better. That dude will probably show up in the NFL? And from a complete package (run) scare Scott at UIW was really scary.
AstroDin liked this
 #77745  by The Jackal
 Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:04 pm
AstroDin wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 9:27 am
That is the classic problem with pundits and how they look at the glossy stuff.

They contradict themselves that Western isn't getting respect, but they disrespect Furman. They don't even mention Furman's defense? They again bring up that Furman only beat KSU by X, The Citadel by X, and only barely beat Samford on the road in a game played without a delay. It's funny how biases work; you fail to bring up comparative things.

Furman playing back-to-back road games, especially this one that's only a two-hour-plus bus ride, is physically not a factor.

We will see on Saturday if Cole Gonzales is the best QB Furman has faced all season. Better than Rattler, better than Hiers. Heck, better than Scott from Incarnate Word.

It sure doesn't sound like the DINS have a chance… whatever!
There's a lot of stuff that goes beyond the typical box scores:

1. Furman put 30+ on Kennesaw, which currently has the #16 scoring defense in the FCS. Everyone talks about Kennesaw's record and the final scoreline, but no one mentions that the Owls defense has been one of the best in the country.

2. Few seem to mention that UTC also had a tough game with Kennesaw (at home). WCU just beat UTC by two after looking in control of the game early. Apparently UTC's game against Kennesaw didn't mean much when the Mocs played the Catamounts.

3. WCU beat Samford badly, but what effect did a five and a half hour weather delay have on the game? Samford was on the road, had a 2:30 kickoff, and didn't resume play until 9:00 p.m. I would think that sort of delay would drastically favor the home team. I believe it was tied or close when the teams left the field, and WCU jumped out to a bunch of points right after play resumed. Samford was playing at an hour they expected to be halfway back to Birmingham. What would that game have looked like under different circumstances?

4. Furman and WCU are built differently. The Catamounts are built to strike quickly and often. Furman is a more methodical ball control offense. The Catamounts have these eye popping box scores that Furman isn't going to have. Our offenses are not built the same. WCU is built to run you ragged. Furman is built such that you get to the 4th quarter and don't want any more.
hypercycloid liked this
 #77754  by Jasper
 Fri Oct 20, 2023 4:04 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2023 3:43 pm
I can totally understand why computers and pundits like WCU.

I think there’s a lot of stuff that the computers don’t pick up, though. WCU has probably played or is playing its best football in years. I don’t believe we’ve seen Furman’s best football yet this season.
I totally agree. I expected WCU to be favored and all the pundits are picking them. There is no question that they have been playing very well and that Furman has not come near to playing its best game. I suspect we are going to see that best game on Saturday in Cullawhee. In the past two meetings of these teams, Furman has averaged nearly 45 points per game. The Cats are basically putting that defense on the field this week. That gave up 50+ to Chatt just a few weeks ago. Looks to me like the Dins are going to put some numbers up against WCU. On the other side of the ball, the FU defense is much improved since llast year and statistics bear that out. We are particularly tough against the run and if Reid cannot break a couple of big ones on our D, they have a real problem. Chatt lost because they could not stop Reid, loaded the box and got beat in the air as well. If and SEC team (USC) could not run on Furman, why would anyone think that Western can. The real surprise in this game is that the Cats may just GET rather than administer a good old-fashioned ass whuppin. If we score in the 40's again, that is a definite possibility. The reason I put "smart money" in quotes when I started this post is because they aint! Wish I could get those 11 points I heard being tossed around. That could be a 4 bagger investment. Furman 42 - 17.
FUBeAR liked this
 #77755  by The Jackal
 Fri Oct 20, 2023 4:34 pm
The Chattanooga comparison is an interesting one.

The UTC offense - just my opinion - is built similarly to Furman's. They share similar DNA. UTC is a better passing team, Furman a better running team.

I think the Mocs putting up 50+ on Western is positive. It would have also given our staff some good film to use in terms of how to matchup with WCU's defense.

Honestly, Furman's best bet is to keep WCU from turning this game into a track meet. UTC did a good job of trying to slow the cats down early, but like us last year, let them get some momentum and get that offensive machine rolling. Furman's playbook against Samford worked well - force them to play your style of game, not their style of game.
 #77756  by wcugrad95
 Fri Oct 20, 2023 5:03 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:04 pm
Furman is built such that you get to the 4th quarter and don't want any more.
Really not stirring the pot here, but have you seen the last 2 games between these teams? I’d say in neither game did FU want to extend the game any longer.

WCU is much better and deeper than the last 2 squads. So this will either be one team that establishes something early and cruises to a big win, or it will be a fight to the end like the last 2 contests.
bj93 liked this
 #77759  by FurmAlum
 Fri Oct 20, 2023 7:36 pm
WCU flash & dash vs. FU Old School smash mouth with a good offense and great defense. I also like Furman's experience at every position and big game FCS playoff resume.

I also expect the Catamonts to be talking some smack. Shut them up with some smash.

Furman 38 WCU 21
FUBeAR, AstroDin liked this
 #77760  by The Jackal
 Fri Oct 20, 2023 9:38 pm
wcugrad95 wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 5:03 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:04 pm
Furman is built such that you get to the 4th quarter and don't want any more.
Really not stirring the pot here, but have you seen the last 2 games between these teams? I’d say in neither game did FU want to extend the game any longer.

WCU is much better and deeper than the last 2 squads. So this will either be one team that establishes something early and cruises to a big win, or it will be a fight to the end like the last 2 contests.

Honestly, both defenses fell apart last year. WCU's defense struggled from the jump. Furman's was mostly just bad in the fourth quarter.
 #77788  by gofurman
 Sat Oct 21, 2023 11:15 am
Furman is +3.5 at WCU

IE WCU is favored to beat us by home field advantage