Mercer - Sep. 23

[The Jackal]

Mercer game notes: https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... .21.23.pdf

One area to watch is special teams. Digging into the numbers a bit:

Mercer is last in the SoCon in Net punting Average (31.4 yards). Furman is first (42.2). Mercer's punter's longest punt of the year (42 yards) is shorter than Ryan Leavy's average (44.50).

*note: we don't mention it a lot, but Leavy is punting the fire out of the ball this season. He's had 5 punts of 50+ yards.

Mercer has recorded only one touchback on 15 kicks. They are last in the league in average kick distance. Furman leads the league in kickoff returns and has arguably the league's best kick returner (Wayne Anderson), who nearly housed one last week. So, we're going to get some shots to flip field positions on kick returns.

Mercer has hit on all their field goals, but has only attempted 3 and no attempts outside of 40 yards. Furman has the same number of made kicks inside 40. The only Paladin misses are outside of 40 yards.

Of course, while we haven't seen it this season, Furman is pretty good at blocking kicks and, I believe, blocked one against Mercer last season.

In a game that could be back and forth, special teams may make a difference.

[FUBeAR]

Mercer game notes: https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... .21.23.pdf

One area to watch is special teams. Digging into the numbers a bit:

Mercer is last in the SoCon in Net punting Average (31.4 yards). Furman is first (42.2). Mercer's punter's longest punt of the year (42 yards) is shorter than Ryan Leavy's average (44.50).

*note: we don't mention it a lot, but Leavy is punting the fire out of the ball this season. He's had 5 punts of 50+ yards.

Mercer has recorded only one touchback on 15 kicks. They are last in the league in average kick distance. Furman leads the league in kickoff returns and has arguably the league's best kick returner (Wayne Anderson), who nearly housed one last week. So, we're going to get some shots to flip field positions on kick returns.

Mercer has hit on all their field goals, but has only attempted 3 and no attempts outside of 40 yards. Furman has the same number of made kicks inside 40. The only Paladin misses are outside of 40 yards.

Of course, while we haven't seen it this season, Furman is pretty good at blocking kicks and, I believe, blocked one against Mercer last season.

In a game that could be back and forth, special teams may make a difference.

Mercer’s Punting, with the exception of the 2 years they had the 35 year old Aussie doing it, has always been, um, adventurous…at best. It remains so.

But…it looks like you are picking up Individual Stats for Punter A when it seems Mercer has decided to make a change and go with Punter B after this Punt in the 1st series after halftime of their Ole Miss game…

4th and 8 at MER39 Punter A punt 31 yards to the OM30 Watkins,Jordan return 70 yards to the MERCER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:07.

Punter B’s numbers are a bit better than Punter A’s.

Individual Punting Statistics
Player NO YDS AVG Long TB FC I20 50+ BLK
Punter A 8 297 37.13 42 1 2 1 0 0
Punter B 6 231 38.50 49 0 1 1 0 0

Also, Punter B’s Net Punting Average is the same as his Punting Average - 38.5 yds - as none of his 6 Punts have been returned. 38.5 Net Yds/Punt would be #3 in the SoCon.


Kick/Punt Returns…
Devron Harper, Mercer, KR/PR, Sr., 5-9, 168
Harper was on the list (Craig Haley’s list) of top-returning FCS offensive players, and couldn’t be left off the special teams list. He’s scored five times on returns (three punts, two kickoffs) in his career and was the Stats Perform FCS All-America punt returner at Gardner-Webb following the 2021 spring season.

Harper is currently #1 in FCS in Combined Kick Returns
Rank Player Cl Ht Pos G KO Ret KO Ret Yds Punt Ret Punt Ret Yds Yds
1 Devron Harper, Mercer (SoCon) Sr. 5-9 WR 3 8 177 6 123 300

Furman has 3 Players ranked in Combined Kick Returns
Rank Player Cl Ht Pos __________G KO Ret KO Ret Yds Punt Ret Punt Ret Yds Yds
72 Wayne Anderson Jr., Furman (SoCon) --- 5-10 WR 3 3 94 0 0 94
152 Joshua Harris, Furman (SoCon) _____Jr. 6-2 WR 3 0 0 5 43 43
185 Colton Hinton, Furman (SoCon) ___Fr. 5-11 WR 3 1 29 0 0 29
Total Furman_________________________4_123_5_43___166

Mercer’s Harper & Furman’s J. Harris are both ranked in the Top 20 in FCS Individual Punt Returns
Rank Player Cl Ht Pos G Punt Ret Punt Ret Yds Avg
5 Devron Harper, Mercer (SoCon) Sr. 5-9 WR 3 6 123 20.5
20 Joshua Harris, Furman (SoCon) Jr. 6-2 WR 3 5 43 8.6

Mercer’s Harper is ranked #31 in FCS in Kick Returns…shown below with other ranked SoCon Kick Returners
Rank Player Cl Ht Pos G KO Ret KO Ret Yds Avg
23 DJ Rias, Samford (SoCon) Sr. 5-8 WR 3 6 142 23.7
28 Kyle Parsons, Wofford (SoCon) So. 6-0 RB 3 8 184 23.0
31 Devron Harper, Mercer (SoCon) Sr. 5-9 WR 3 8 177 22.1
64 Romello Jones, The Citadel (SoCon) Fr. 5-11 WR 3 5 93 18.6
70 Javin Whatley, Chattanooga (SoCon) So. 5-10 WR 3 4 68 17.0
78 Ton'Quez Ball, ETSU (SoCon) Jr. 0-0 DB 3 6 100 16.7

FUBeAR’S Special Teams Advantage Assessment…
Kickoff - Furman ++
Kickoff Return - Mercer +
Punt - Furman +
Punt Return - Mercer ++
FG/XP - Furman ++
FG/XP Block/Cover - Furman
Overall - Furman +

[The Jackal]

No doubt Harper is good return man. I just think Furman is more likely to force touchbacks, which largely negates any advantage in the return game.

I'm not sure if this was in an attempt to avoid Anderson, but Kennesaw State attempted several "pooch" kicks on kickoffs last week. Not sure the reason, but it could be that the Owls didn't want to risk Wayne Anderson doing to them what he did in the 4th Quarter.

On punt returns, I think Furman under Hendrix seems to be less concerned about the return and more concerned about possession. He doesn't have his most elusive player returning punts, he has the guy with the best hands. I'd wager Harris is instructed to attempt a return only in certain circumstances.

That said, if the situation and atmospherics are not in our favor, I wouldn't punt the ball anywhere near Devron Harper. Make the Bear offense beat your defense. Don't let their best playmaker do what he does.

[BearDownMU]

All the kickers are freshmen. So, yeah, I hold my breath. lol

[The Jackal]

All the kickers are freshmen. So, yeah, I hold my breath. lol

In my observations, that's not super uncommon as you might think in FCS football.

Most schools don't have the luxury of burning multiple scholarships on kickers. So, frequently schools get a scholarship player and then he just ends up the kicker for four years before handing it off to the next guy.

[BearDownMU]

Not that anyone cares, but this is my biggest X-factor for the week. Through 3 games, I have seen the least "Cronic-ish" game plans as long as he's been at Mercer. I understand Week 1, UNA had an entirely new coaching staff (put together from different programs) and 40 transfers in a Week 0 game. There was literally no film on them, at all. You have to go to coaches and their previous schools and who knows if that even translated. So I feel like that game was just about as vanilla as it could possibly be because no one really knew what UNA was going to do/be.

Ole Miss is what it is, and Morehead was also very generic. Not traditionally what you see in a Cronic offense. All that said, for me, the real question is: Since Cronic has been in the lab for 2 weeks with the off week, and now every game matters, and you have film to work with (for us and Furman) what do the offensive and defensive game plans look like? It's the reason I've been hesitant to get too high or low on results so far because I don't know that we've seen Mercer do "what they do" just yet. That doesn't mean it's necessarily going to work, but to this point, the game plans have been much less sophisticated than I've come to expect from Cronic.

[The Jackal]

Not that anyone cares, but this is my biggest X-factor for the week. Through 3 games, I have seen the least "Cronic-ish" game plans as long as he's been at Mercer. I understand Week 1, UNA had an entirely new coaching staff (put together from different programs) and 40 transfers in a Week 0 game. There was literally no film on them, at all. You have to go to coaches and their previous schools and who knows if that even translated. So I feel like that game was just about as vanilla as it could possibly be because no one really knew what UNA was going to do/be.

Ole Miss is what it is, and Morehead was also very generic. Not traditionally what you see in a Cronic offense. All that said, for me, the real question is: Since Cronic has been in the lab for 2 weeks with the off week, and now every game matters, and you have film to work with (for us and Furman) what do the offensive and defensive game plans look like? It's the reason I've been hesitant to get too high or low on results so far because I don't know that we've seen Mercer do "what they do" just yet. That doesn't mean it's necessarily going to work, but to this point, the game plans have been much less sophisticated than I've come to expect from Cronic.

I said this somewhere up above, but Furman is going to need to be ready for just about anything from Mercer offensively. It wouldn't surprise me a jot to see Mercer attempt some shenanigans early in the game to try to steal the momentum on the road.

Just personal opinion, but Mercer will need to establish a run game. They were not able to do that last year, and Furman played in their backfield most of the night. While Furman isn't an easy team to run against, doing so can open up Mercer's biggest offensive strength - the play action downfield game - against Furman's biggest defensive weakness - holding coverage downfield.

Defensively, I suspect Furman is going to come after Peevy. You know Mercer is going to want to go downfield to their receivers. Furman is going to have to disrupt that. I expect a lot of late pressure from the edge and up the middle. I don't expect a ton of east/west from Mercer except some occasional stuff to Harper. They're gonna need to be going north/south. Furman is adept at forcing turnovers, and those may end up big tomorrow.

Offensively, I think Furman just needs to play their style of football. Mercer is going to give up a fair amount of size to Furman's offense, so they are going to have to gang tackle and get to the point of attack in a hurry. When they play their best football, Mercer's defense swarms to the ball.

The biggest problem for Mercer defensively is Tyler Huff. Every team tries to defend him a little differently. Mercer is going to have to force someone else to beat them.

[FUBeAR]

No doubt Harper is good return man. I just think Furman is more likely to force touchbacks, which largely negates any advantage in the return game.

I'm not sure if this was in an attempt to avoid Anderson, but Kennesaw State attempted several "pooch" kicks on kickoffs last week. Not sure the reason, but it could be that the Owls didn't want to risk Wayne Anderson doing to them what he did in the 4th Quarter.

On punt returns, I think Furman under Hendrix seems to be less concerned about the return and more concerned about possession. He doesn't have his most elusive player returning punts, he has the guy with the best hands. I'd wager Harris is instructed to attempt a return only in certain circumstances.

That said, if the situation and atmospherics are not in our favor, I wouldn't punt the ball anywhere near Devron Harper. Make the Bear offense beat your defense. Don't let their best playmaker do what he does.

The owlets Head Coach said the 2 (intended) sky kicks were to avoid kicking it to Anderson after his 50 yard return at the beginning of the 4th quarter. Their Kicker has been struggling all year and executed both of them poorly and kicked them OOB. 1st & 10 @ the 35. Better than the 50, from their perspective.

Still looking at very windy conditions on Saturday … if so…it will affect the Kicking / Kick Catching / Passing. No idea if that favors either Team or not.

[The Jackal]

Good find.

I noticed the KSU kicker had a fair amount of touchbacks to his ledger, but may not have been at a high enough rate to risk it.

Furman almost ate it doing the opposite. Their kicker has a high rate of touchbacks, but with the game on the line he hit a low liner to the one dude on Kennesaw's team we didn't want to kick to.

[Mr. Taggart]

unless FUBeAR is mixing up things, sadly, RIP & TheUFFP traditional “prolly had it coming” are in order, when mentioning this (too) young man.

Wait, what? Is this a very VERY recent thing? As far as I know, TS is still with us.

Yep - see - FUBeAR was confusing him with another Atlanta-area FU TE, Chris Truss, who passed away suddenly 2 years ago https://www.dignitymemorial.com/obitua ... s-10370055 - that’s why we need you around here, boss. You’re literally saving lives with your posts!

Trent is a little older. He was in my class (2001).

[The Jackal]

Good find.

I noticed the KSU kicker had a fair amount of touchbacks to his ledger, but may not have been at a high enough rate to risk it.

Furman almost ate it doing the opposite. Their kicker has a high rate of touchbacks, but with the game on the line he hit a low liner to the one dude on Kennesaw's team we didn't want to kick to.

Strike that. Watching again, Kennesaw may have been concerned about something else.

Anderson has a dangerous return, but Kendall Thomas puts the Owl's kicker into orbit at the end of the run.

[FUBeAR]

Good find.

I noticed the KSU kicker had a fair amount of touchbacks to his ledger, but may not have been at a high enough rate to risk it.

Furman almost ate it doing the opposite. Their kicker has a high rate of touchbacks, but with the game on the line he hit a low liner to the one dude on Kennesaw's team we didn't want to kick to.

Strike that. Watching again, Kennesaw may have been concerned about something else.

Anderson has a dangerous return, but Kendall Thomas puts the Owl's kicker into orbit at the end of the run.

The owlets Head Coach said the 2 (intended) sky kicks were to avoid kicking it to Anderson after his 50 yard return at the beginning of the 4th quarter. Their Kicker has been struggling all year and executed both of them poorly and kicked them OOB. 1st & 10 @ the 35. Better than the 50, from their perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/live/cwiKaRwZUX ... ared&t=972

Start @ 16:12 - Listen to 17:41

[FUBeAR]

We've been doing a lot of comparisons. Here's how Massey compares various attributes of Furman and Mercer...

Team Rating Rating Rnk Power Power Rnk Offense Offense Rnk Defense Def Rnk HFA SoS SoS Rnk
Furman 6.69 16 37.53 20 47.04 23 17.88 28 2.16 36.01 37
Mercer 6.29 32 31.62 41 42.97 44 16.04 37 2.13 29.36 69

(wish we had ability to do tables in here ... )

[cavedweller2]

Not that anyone cares, but this is my biggest X-factor for the week. Through 3 games, I have seen the least "Cronic-ish" game plans as long as he's been at Mercer. I understand Week 1, UNA had an entirely new coaching staff (put together from different programs) and 40 transfers in a Week 0 game. There was literally no film on them, at all. You have to go to coaches and their previous schools and who knows if that even translated. So I feel like that game was just about as vanilla as it could possibly be because no one really knew what UNA was going to do/be.

Ole Miss is what it is, and Morehead was also very generic. Not traditionally what you see in a Cronic offense. All that said, for me, the real question is: Since Cronic has been in the lab for 2 weeks with the off week, and now every game matters, and you have film to work with (for us and Furman) what do the offensive and defensive game plans look like? It's the reason I've been hesitant to get too high or low on results so far because I don't know that we've seen Mercer do "what they do" just yet. That doesn't mean it's necessarily going to work, but to this point, the game plans have been much less sophisticated than I've come to expect from Cronic.

We just hope that if he unleashes the bubonic Cronic that it just goes up in smoke.

[FUBeAR]

Not that anyone cares, but this is my biggest X-factor for the week. Through 3 games, I have seen the least "Cronic-ish" game plans as long as he's been at Mercer. I understand Week 1, UNA had an entirely new coaching staff (put together from different programs) and 40 transfers in a Week 0 game. There was literally no film on them, at all. You have to go to coaches and their previous schools and who knows if that even translated. So I feel like that game was just about as vanilla as it could possibly be because no one really knew what UNA was going to do/be.

Ole Miss is what it is, and Morehead was also very generic. Not traditionally what you see in a Cronic offense. All that said, for me, the real question is: Since Cronic has been in the lab for 2 weeks with the off week, and now every game matters, and you have film to work with (for us and Furman) what do the offensive and defensive game plans look like? It's the reason I've been hesitant to get too high or low on results so far because I don't know that we've seen Mercer do "what they do" just yet. That doesn't mean it's necessarily going to work, but to this point, the game plans have been much less sophisticated than I've come to expect from Cronic.

We just hope that if he unleashes the bubonic Cronic that it just goes up in smoke.

Censored, but still PG-13 Language…maybe R-Rated - Pure genius though. Perhaps the greatest cover in the history of covers…covering the source of cavedweller’s reference (4:25).