SoCon/FCS Week 3

[The Jackal]

VMI @ NC State
Furman @ Kennesaw State
WCU @ EKU
The Citadel @ UTC
Presbyterian @ Wofford
ETSU @ Austin Peay
Samford @ Auburn
Mercer off

-

WCU's game against Eastern Kentucky should be good. The Colonels have only played FBS teams to this point and played Kentucky tough last week. Would be a nice out of conference win.

Not sure what to expect in the ETSU/Austin Peay game. APSU lost pretty badly to top 15 SIU, but then hung tough with Tennessee. ETSU looked iffy against Jacksonville State, but handled D2 Carson Newman last week. Again, would be a nice out of conference win.

I suspect VMI has little chance of anything against NC State. Their offense hasn't done much against Davidson and Bucknell, and this will be a big step up from that.

The Citadel has looked bad. I guess we'll get a flavor for how competitive they'll be in SoCon play with their contest in Chattanooga.

Wofford should get their first win against Presbyterian.

Samford seems like they'll have little chance against Auburn. Tough one for the Bulldogs who probably get to wash down last week's butt kicking with this week's butt kicking.

[FUBeAR]

Nothing to see here. Move along

[FUBeAR]

Furman @ Kennesaw State
WCU @ EKU
ETSU @ Austin Peay

WCU's game against Eastern Kentucky should be good. The Colonels have only played FBS teams to this point and played Kentucky tough last week. Would be a nice out of conference win.

Not sure what to expect in the ETSU/Austin Peay game. APSU lost pretty badly to top 15 SIU, but then hung tough with Tennessee. ETSU looked iffy against Jacksonville State, but handled D2 Carson Newman last week. Again, would be a nice out of conference win.

Yep - barring HUGE anomalies, only 2 other interesting games...

WCU's game is CRITICAL for SoCon perception because they raised their visibility so high with the win over Samford. If WCU gets blown out or even if they lose, Furman will be 'hit' in the polls. If they win, it doesn't help FU immediately, but it doesn't hurt and could help later.

We were 'hit' this week for no good reason. Pundits and Poll voters are saying ... "Ooooh, Idaho with the FBS win, gotta move 'em ahead of Furman" - BS - Nevada is not even a Top 25 FCS Team. They haven't won a Football game in over a year and they've had 2 FCS losses in that time span. Furman's win over TTU is about as good as Idaho's win over Nevada. They are also saying...."See, I knew we had Samford rated too high. So, we have to lower Furman also." Yep - Samford's loss to WCU hurt Furman in the polls.

And - sure - "just TCB in the SoCon...and the polls don't matter" BUT, friends, that is NOT TRUE. Polls affect Seeds and to Teams in contention for Seeds, the number of that Seed is HUGE, HUGE, HUGE. FUBeAR did a deep-dive data analysis this summer on the last 9 years of FCS 24 Team/8 Seeds Playoff results....and the results showed HFA and # of the Seed were HUGE determinants in Playoff success. Samford was totally screwed last year when they were 10-0 in FCS and had every right to the #1 Seed. There is no question they should have been a Top 4 Seed and they were #6...which sent them where....FARGO...of course. ETSU was 10-1 with a win over an FBS SEC Team the year before and was screwed with a #7 Seed....they should have been Top 4 also ..... but that #7 sent them where ... FARGO ... of course. Both SoCon Teams - who should have been playing at home until Frisco...or at worst the semi's - ended up in the quarter-finals trying to run their Offenses inside the housing of a Jet Engine.

Can't say it often enough or loud enough - FOR A TEAM IN CONTENTION FOR A SEED OR A TEAM IN CONTENTION FOR AN AT-LARGE PLAYOFF BERTH - POLLS AND PERCEPTION MATTER - A LOT!!!!

And the annual SoCon screwing started this week with Furman dropping 2 - 8 slots after going toe-to-toe with an SEC Team until the SEC released a herd of crazed Zebras on the field....and a meh -FBSINO win by a Big Sky darlin' .... and a loss by a top-tier SoCon Team to another SoCon Team that everyone - except Poll Voters - knew was going to be, and is, dang good.

#EndofRant

ETSU game is no lose...well, unless it's a complete blowout. If the Bucs can win, that's really helpful for the SoCon (i.e., Furman). If they lose in a semi-respectable manner, that's about what's expected and won't hurt FU.


GO CATAMOUNTS!!! BEAT THE COLONELS!!!!!

and RIP Coach Kidd

[gman84]

I used to say just win the conference and get the auto bid. I have been educated by FUBeAR. He is spot on with the BS that just happened in the polls this week!

[The Jackal]

I used to say just win the conference and get the auto bid. I have been educated by FUBeAR. He is spot on with the BS that just happened in the polls this week!

I'm inclined to want to play anyone anywhere.

Having a first round playoff bye is nice. In the current makeup of the playoff field, avoiding a second round game to the Dakotas or Montana or California is also nice.

Course, lose to KSU and I think we can kiss goodbye a seed. I just don't see a 9-2 at best SoCon team getting a seed.

[FUBeAR]

I used to say just win the conference and get the auto bid. I have been educated by FUBeAR. He is spot on with the BS that just happened in the polls this week!

I'm inclined to want to play anyone anywhere.

Having a first round playoff bye is nice. In the current makeup of the playoff field, avoiding a second round game to the Dakotas or Montana or California is also nice.

Course, lose to KSU and I think we can kiss goodbye a seed. I just don't see a 9-2 at best SoCon team getting a seed.

Yeah - we all used to be macho...until we look at reality - having a week off and playing at home MATTERS BIG in Football.

You are right the rest of the way though....and absolutely...

Furman must win the next 9 to have a chance for any seed.

Historically, going 10-1 with a 33-0 FBS SEC Loss to the Undefeated 2-time Natl Champion 'buys' a 6 seed for a SoCon Champion. 9-2 ‘buys’ an At-Large berth (for Non-SoCon Champion) and nothing ‘extra’ for a 9-2 SoCon Champ. 8-3 doesn’t ensure a Playoff berth, but it’s likely. 7-4 is most likely out of playoffs, unless Champ somehow.

Gotta win 'em all and hope for some breaks to get a Top 4 seed...the latter part of that being complete BS. A 10-1 SoCon Champion with an all D1 schedule and only loss to FBS SEC should be a Top 4 Seed EVERY YEAR BY DEFAULT.

[The Jackal]

Furman has to stay within striking distance.

I think we'll see movement this season inside of the top 10. SDSU and NDSU have to play most of the top teams in their own conference, including each other. Montana State has a lot of top 10-15 Big Sky teams on their slate.

Even the Holy Cross, who frequently walks to an 11-0 or 10-1 season, has Yale (the Ivy's top team), Harvard, and Army, which are no gimmes.

William & Mary may have the easiest road as the top CAA team. The CAA is a bit like the SoCon right now, top heavy, but not a ton of opportunities for big conference wins.

[gofurman]

I used to say just win the conference and get the auto bid. I have been educated by FUBeAR. He is spot on with the BS that just happened in the polls this week!

I'm inclined to want to play anyone anywhere.

Having a first round playoff bye is nice. In the current makeup of the playoff field, avoiding a second round game to the Dakotas or Montana or California is also nice.

Course, lose to KSU and I think we can kiss goodbye a seed. I just don't see a 9-2 at best SoCon team getting a seed.

Yeah - we all used to be macho...until we look at reality - having a week off and playing at home MATTERS BIG in Football.

You are right the rest of the way though....and absolutely...Furman must win the next 9 to have a chance for any seed. Historically, going 10-1 with a 33-0 FBS SEC Loss to the Undefeated 2-time Natl Champion 'buys' a 6 seed for a SoCon Champion. Gotta win 'em all and hope for some breaks to get a Top 4 seed...the latter part of that being complete BS. A 10-1 SoCon Champion with an all D1 schedule and only loss to FBS SEC should be a Top 4 Seed EVERY YEAR BY DEFAULT.

FUBeAR IS SO RIGHT. the OL mantra of “to be the best you gotta beat the best “ AND let’s go do it at their place doesn’t apply in FCS.

Screw that. Let’s get an easy path and have home games. A win is a win. Screw having to always play at NDSU.

I am sick and tired of the “”let’s go play away at the best teams” and prove how good we are. Our opponents (NDSU etc ) don’t hardly leave home confines

Let’s play easy opponents. AT FURMAN

A win is a win. Whatever it takes to advance.

[furmandad]

It appears ETSU is trying to challenge VMI & Citadel for the bottom of the SoCon.

[SidBreamScores]

But wait … a new contender emerges!

Wofford loses to an amazingly unathletic looking PC squad. Lordy.

[The Jackal]

WCU beats an apparently good Eastern Kentucky team.

[apaladin]

It appears ETSU is trying to challenge VMI & Citadel for the bottom of the SoCon.

I would rate VMI above WC, Citadel, and ETSU and that is bad, really bad.

[FurmAlum]

VMI, Citadel, ETSU, and Wofftard are an embarrassment to the SoCon.

[furmandad]

But wait … a new contender emerges!

Wofford loses to an amazingly unathletic looking PC squad. Lordy.

Ha Ha!! Agree!

[FUwolfpacker]

EKU went the length of the field in 28 seconds and the EKU WR dropped the ball in the end zone as he was slipping down. Then EKU missed the FG. Brutal finish for EKU but nice win for Western.