Preseason Top 25

[The Jackal]

Kinda weird that Furman team is getting high ranks but the individual players are not getting respect on preseason all-America teams

https://philsteele.com/2023-phil-steele ... can-teams/

Yes and no.

Each of the players on that list is a very good player. At the same time, these lists can tend to skew towards "system" players that tend to put up gaudy numbers because of how much they are featured in a given system.

At the same time, do I think that these national writers are breaking down film of Furman's offensive line to make educated evaluation? Probably not.

[FUBeAR]

AGS Poll - Lotta love for our Paladins…

AGS Poll Results 2023 Wk0
8/1/2023

Rank Team: Total Points First Place Votes
1 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1049 41
2 North Dakota State Bison 973 1
3 Montana State Bobcats 967
4 Furman Paladins 857
5 Holy Cross Crusaders 810
6 William & Mary Tribe 786
7 Samford Bulldogs 690
8 Incarnate Word Cardinals 686
9 Sac State Hornets 589
10 Idaho Vandals 588
11 New Hampshire Wildcats 539
12 Southeastern Louisiana Lions 520
13 Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 510
14 Montana Grizzlies 490
15 Weber State Wildcats 463
16 UC Davis Aggies 421
17 North Dakota Fighting Hawks 399
18 Richmond Spiders 326
19 Mercer Bears 322
20 Northern Iowa Panthers 233
21 North Carolina Central Eagles 181
22 Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens 178
23 Rhode Island Rams 147
24 Chattanooga Mocs 125
25 Elon Phoenix 107
ORV:
26 Southern Illinois Salukis 82
27 Eastern Kentucky Colonels 76
28 Fordham Rams 73
29 Youngstown State Penguins 60
30 Missouri State Bears 58
31 Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 49
32 Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks 44
33 Jackson State Tigers 34
34 Florida A&M Rattlers 32
35 Central Arkansas Bears 30
36 Yale Bulldogs 25
37 Austin Peay Governors 22
38 Princeton Tigers 21
39 St. Francis Red Flash 20
40 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 15

Surprised WCU didn’t get some love…

So…playoff field would be…

MVFC (1) AQ - SDSU (1)
MVFC (2) At-Large - NDSU (2)
Big Sky (1) AQ - MontSt (3)
SoCon (1) AQ - Furman (4)
PL (1) AQ - Holy Cross (5)
CAA (1) AQ - W&M (6)
SoCon (2) At-Large - Samford (7)
Southland (1) AQ - UIW (8)

Big Sky (2) At-Large - SacSt (9)
Big Sky (3) At-Large - Idaho (10)
CAA (2) At-Large - UNH (11)
Southland (2) At-Large - SELU (12)
Big South/OVC (1) AQ - SEMO (13)
Big Sky (4) At-Large - Mont. (14)
Big Sky (5) At-Large - Weber (15)
Big Sky (6) At-Large - UCD (16)
MVFC (3) At-Large - UND (17)
CAA (3) At-Large - Richmond (18)
SoCon (3) At-Large - Mercer (19)
MVFC (4) At-Large - UNI (20)
CAA (4) At-Large - Delaware (21)
UAC (1) AQ - EKU (22)
NEC (1) AQ - SFU (23)
PFL (1) AQ - ? (24)

[paladinfan12]

Great to see Furman and SoCon have such a great spot preseason. This will really help getting quality matchups on the calendar.

[stonemd]

AGS poll is recognized as one of the best. I decided to crunch some numbers.

Big Sky conference has 6/12 members ranked top 25 - 50%
CAA has 6/15 -40%
Missouri Valley has 4/12 - 33%
SOCON has 4/9 - 44%


If you assign 25 power points to being ranked #1 and 24 pts for #2 etc

Big Sky has 89 power points/ 6 ranked teams = 14.9 power points per ranked team
Big Sky has 89 power points /12 teams = 7.4 power points per team

CAA has 51 pp/6 ranked teams = 8.5 power points per ranked team
CAA 51 power points/15 teams = 3.4 pp per team

Missouri Valley has 64 pp/4 ranked teams = 16 power points per ranked team
Missouri Valley 64pp/12 teams = 5.3 pp per team

SOCON has 50 pp/4 ranked teams = 12.5 power points per ranked team
SOCON has 50 power points/9 teams = 5.6 power points per team


SOCON is #2 in percent of teams ranked top 25
SOCON is #3 in power points per ranked team
SOCON is #2 in power points per total conference team

Looking at all the above I would rank overall conferences (based on AGS poll)
Big Sky > MissValley=SOCON > CAA

[stonemd]

https://masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings?c=1

I’ll look at 2023 Massey Ranking

Average Team Ranking
Missouri Valley 26
Big Sky 32
SOCON 32
CAA 46

Average Ranking Top Half Teams
Big Sky 7
MV 8
SOCON 13
CAA 27

Average Ranking Bottom Half teams
MV 43
SOCON 51
Big Sky 57
CAA 63


From this data I’d rank conferences
1 MV
2 Big Sky
3 SOCON
4 CAA (4th place in all categories)

[Roundball]

[Bootie]

Here's a link to that without having to go through twitter...
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2023/8/ ... ss-samford

[The Jackal]

Here's a link to that without having to go through twitter...
https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2023/8/ ... ss-samford

I know there's a huge benefit to a seed, but that writer predicts Furman to get the #4 seed and host the winner of Merrimack and UNH. That'd be fun.

[FUBeAR]

Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll

1. South Dakota State (14–1, 8–0 Missouri Valley), 1,400 points (56 first-place votes)
2. North Dakota State (12–3, 7–1 Missouri Valley), 1,329
3. Montana State (12–2, 8–0 Big Sky), 1,294
4. William & Mary (11–2, 7–1 CAA), 1,172
5. Holy Cross (12–1, 6–0 Patriot), 1,113
6. Furman (10–3, 7–1 Southern), 1,035
7. UIW (12–2, 5–1 Southland), 935
8. Idaho (7–5, 6–2 Big Sky), 932
9. Samford (11–2, 8–0 Southern), 885
10. Sacramento State (12–1, 8–0 Big Sky), 881
11. New Hampshire (9–4, 7–1 CAA), 798
12. Southeast Missouri (9-3, 5–0 Ohio Valley), 768
13. Weber State (10–3, 6–2 Big Sky), 744
14. Montana (8–5, 4–4 Big Sky), 711
15. Southeastern Louisiana (9–4, 5–1 Southland), 710
16. UC Davis (6–5, 5–3 Big Sky), 513
17. North Dakota (7–5, 5–3 Missouri Valley), 479
18. Richmond (9–4, 6–2 CAA), 387
19. North Carolina Central (10–2, 4–1 MEAC), 330
20. Mercer (7–4, 5–3 Southern), 293
21. Rhode Island (7–4, 5–3 CAA), 169
22. Delaware (8-5, 4-4 CAA), 166
23. Northern Iowa (6-5, 5-3 Missouri Valley), 155
24. Eastern Kentucky (7-5, 3-2 ASUN), 137
25. Gardner-Webb (7-6, 5-0 Big South), 12

26. Central Arkansas (5–6, 3–2 ASUN) 110
27. Chattanooga (7-4, 5-3 Southern) 84
28. Jackson State (12-1, 8-0 SWAC) 71
29T. Southern Illinois (5–6, 4–4 Missouri Valley) 66
29T. Youngstown State (7-4, 5-3 Missouri Valley) 66
31T. Florida A&M (9-2, 7-1 SWAC) 65
31T. UT Martin (7–4, 5–0 Ohio Valley) 65
33. Elon (8-4, 6-2 CAA) 61
34. Austin Peay (7-4, 3-2 ASUN) 40
35. Fordham (9-3, 5-1 Patriot) 28
36. Yale (8-2, 6-1 Ivy) 18
37. Villanova (6-5, 4-4 CAA) 8
38. McNeese (4-7, 2-4 Southland) 7
39T. Abilene Christian (7-4, 3-1 WAC) 6
39T. St. Thomas (10-1, 8-0 Pioneer) 6
41. Saint Francis (9-3, 7-0 NEC) 5

William & Mary ahead of Furman makes no sense.
6 Big Sky Teams in Top 16 makes no sense.
7 CAA in Top 37 makes no sense.
Where is WCU?

[Paul C]

Interesting symmetry.....the top 3 teams are all large state schools in the upper midwest and the next 3 are high academic private schools in the East....

[FUBeAR]

Interesting symmetry.....the top 3 teams are all large state schools in the upper midwest and the next 3 are high academic private schools in the East....

William & Mary is a state school - https://www.wm.edu/

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR posted this (below) in the wrong thread (Pre-Season) yesterday. As there is a new development based on this data, FUBeAR thought he should re-post it here as a more accessible reference for the “new development” (further below)

Based on this data…

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =658338248

…FUBeAR just decided to move Furman up 1 spot to #3 in his preseason rankings, behind #1 South Dakota State and #2 Montana State.

That moves North Dakota State down to #4 and FUBeAR is evaluating further to see if he is gonna leave the bizuns that high.

So…this data comes from someone calling themselves “Keeper.” Keeper is a total stats geek. He compiles all of this data and has for years. Now, some people will say - “The game is played on the field. I’m not a stats guy.” To which, FUBeAR will respond, “Score is a stat. So are W’s and L’s.” So…while not a total stats geek, FUBeAR does believe Stats Lives Matter.

New development - Keeper published the Top 25 he derives from a complex formula which includes the years of data, returning Offensive & Defensive Starters & Production and ‘snaps’ for Non-Stat generating Players. Also, Keeper added Transfer Impact data to the cipherin’ this year. All that said…without further ah dew, adeaux, a doo…whichever is correct, here are Keeper’s 2023 PreSeason Top 25 Teams…

Keeper's pre-season power ratings Top 25:

1 South Dakota St
2 Furman
3 UC-Davis
4 Mercer
5 Montana St
6 William & Mary
7 Sacramento St
8 SE Missouri St
9 New Hampshire
10 Northern Iowa
11 Central Arkansas
12 Yale
13 Idaho
14 Samford
15 Richmond
16 North Dakota
17 Holy Cross
18 Chattanooga
19 NC Central
20 Southern Illinois
21 Montana
22 North Dakota St
23 Gardner-Webb
24 Youngstown St
25 Austin Peay

…which becomes…

Keeper’s Top 25 Power Ranking projects for the FCS Playoffs

1 - SDSU - Seed #1 - MVFC (1) AQ1
2 - Furman - Seed #2 - SoCon (1) AQ2
3 - UC Davis - Seed #3 - Big Sky (1) AQ3
4 - Mercer - Seed #4 - SoCon (2) At-Large1
5 - Montana State - Seed #5 - Big Sky (2) At-Large2
6 - William & Mary - Seed #6 - CAA (1) AQ4
7 - Sac. State - Seed #7 - Big Sky (3) At-Large3
8 - SEMO - Seed #8 - Big South/OVC (1) AQ5

9 - New Hampshire - CAA (2) At-Large4
10 - Northern Iowa - MVFC (2) At-Large5
11 - Central Arkansas - UAC (1) AQ6
12 - Idaho - Big Sky (4) At-Large6
13 - Samford - SoCon (3) At-Large7
14 - Richmond - CAA (3) At-Large8
15 - North Dakota - MVFC (3) At-Large9
16 - Holy Cross - Patriot League (1) AQ7
17 - Chattanooga - SoCon (4) At-Large10
18 - Southern Illinois - MVFC (4) At-Large11
19 - Montana - Big Sky (5) At-Large12
20 - NDSU - MVFC (5) At-Large13
21 - Gard-Webb - Big South/OVC (2) At-Large14
22 - Champion of Southland (1) - AQ8
23 - Champion of NEC (1) - AQ9
24 - Champion of PFL (1) - AQ10

Last 2 In - NDSU & Gardner-Webb
First 2 Out - Youngstown State & Austin Peay

[The Jackal]

Stats matter, but like in most things, there's context. It's an interesting concept to measure total experience as a data point.

With Furman, something maybe overlooked in the "total experience" category is special teams. Furman has experienced/veteran players all over their special teams units. They have a highly regarded former head coach overseeing special teams.

Not much is made of that because it can be hard to quantify. But I absolutely think that helps create a championship team.

[AstroDin]

This is exciting…

[FUBeAR]

FCS "Coaches Poll" just released...

The complete 2023 Preseason FCS Coaches Poll is listed below (first place votes in parentheses):

1. South Dakota State (24)
2. North Dakota State (1)
3. Montana State
4. William & Mary
5. Holy Cross
6. Furman
7. UIW
8. Sacramento State
9. Samford
10. Weber State
11. Southeast Missouri
12. New Hampshire
13. Idaho
14. Montana
15. Southeastern Louisiana
16. Richmond
17. UC Davis
18. North Dakota
19. NC Central
20. Northern Iowa
21. Delaware
22. Mercer
23. Rhode Island
24. Gardner-Webb
25. Florida A&M

26. Yale 64
27. Eastern Kentucky 59
28. Fordham 58
29. Jackson St. 37
30T. Elon 30
30T. St. Thomas (Minn.) 30
32. Youngstown St. 28
33T. Princeton 26
33T. Southern Illinois 26
35. UT Martin 23
36. Central Arkansas 22
37T. Chattanooga 13
37T. North Carolina A&T 13
39T. Illinois St. 12
39T. Northern Arizona 12
41. Southern 9
42T. Davidson 7
42T. St. Francis (Pa.) 7
44. Tennessee Tech 6
45T. Howard 5
45T. Pennsylvania 5
47. Abilene Christian 4
48. Austin Peay 3
49. Campbell 2
50. Villanova 1

...which projects Playoffs-wise to

South Dakota State - #1 Seed - MVFC (1) - AQ1
North Dakota State - #2 Seed - MVFC (2) - At-Large1
Montana State - #3 Seed - Big Sky (1) - AQ2
William & Mary - #4 Seed - CAA (1) - AQ3
Holy Cross - #5 Seed - Patriot League (1) - AQ4
Furman - #6 Seed - SoCon (1) - AQ5
UIW - #7 Seed - Southland (1) - AQ6
Sacramento State - #8 Seed - Big Sky (2) - At-Large2

Samford - SoCon (2) - At-Large3
Weber State - Big Sky (3) - At-Large4
Southeast Missouri - Big South/OVC (1) - AQ7
New Hampshire - CAA (2) - At-Large5
Idaho - Big Sky (4) - At-Large6
Montana - Big Sky (5) - At-Large7
Southeastern Louisiana - Southland (2) - At-Large8
Richmond - CAA (3) - At-Large9
UC Davis - Big Sky (6) - At-Large10
North Dakota - MVFC (3) - At-Large11
Northern Iowa - MVFC (4) - At-Large12
Delaware - CAA (4) - At-Large13
Mercer - SoCon (3) - At-Large14
Eastern Kentucky - UAC (1) - AQ8
Davidson - PFL (1) - AQ9
St. Francis (Pa.) - NEC (1) - AQ10

Last 2 in - Delaware & Mercer
First 2 out - Rhode Island & Gardner-Webb