2023 Schedule

[The Jackal]

I think the 2021 ETSU team had a similar set of circumstances - won a bunch of really close games. They quickly regressed to the mean the next season.

Watching Furman in 2022, other than the Charleston Southern game and maybe WCU, I didn’t think Furman really dodged any bullets. Even against WCU, Furman led by three touchdowns at several points during the game. That game felt like an outlier.

Furman largely handled the teams they were supposed to handle.

[FUBeAR]

Watching Furman in 2022, other than the Charleston Southern game and maybe WCU, I didn’t think Furman really dodged any bullets. Even against WCU, Furman led by three touchdowns at several points during the game. That game felt like an outlier.

Furman largely handled the teams they were supposed to handle.

You could look at it that way OR if you’re really trying to assess the overall strength & depth of the quality of the Teams in the SoCon, you might note…

* Furman was less than a TD+XP ahead of near-cellar-dweller, ETSU, until under 1 minute to play
* Furman lost to what should have been #1 or #2 Seeded Samford, but only without the Paladins starting QB and with the worst official’s call in the history of college football
* Furman only led near-cellar-dweller, CIT, 7-3 at halftime
* Furman led WCU by less than a TD with 2 minutes to play
* Chattanooga was less than a TD away from beating Furman the entire 4th quarter

The point is NOT that Furman wasn’t good. We were. We were a Top Team nationally and DESERVED a Top #5 or #6 Seed, but we were also EXTREMELY fortunate to come out of the VERY TOUGH SoCon without 3 or 4 losses.

SoCon Football is better than Big Sky, better than CAA, and very, very close or equal to MVFC-level…but the TripleStackedDeck structure of the FCS Playoffs…actually QuadrupleStacked because of the sparse number of SoCon Teams granted participation…has prevented the SoCon from proving that on the field.

This is not the SoCon of 2014, but FCS people want to continue imagining that it is because it helps them support their own agendas.

[cavedweller2]

Just win baby!

[apaladin]

Fanfest August 19th at Paladin Stadium.

[The Jackal]

Watching Furman in 2022, other than the Charleston Southern game and maybe WCU, I didn’t think Furman really dodged any bullets. Even against WCU, Furman led by three touchdowns at several points during the game. That game felt like an outlier.

Furman largely handled the teams they were supposed to handle.

You could look at it that way OR if you’re really trying to assess the overall strength & depth of the quality of the Teams in the SoCon, you might note…

* Furman was less than a TD+XP ahead of near-cellar-dweller, ETSU, until under 1 minute to play
* Furman lost to what should have been #1 or #2 Seeded Samford, but only without the Paladins starting QB and with the worst official’s call in the history of college football
* Furman only led near-cellar-dweller, CIT, 7-3 at halftime
* Furman led WCU by less than a TD with 2 minutes to play
* Chattanooga was less than a TD away from beating Furman the entire 4th quarter

The point is NOT that Furman wasn’t good. We were. We were a Top Team nationally and DESERVED a Top #5 or #6 Seed, but we were also EXTREMELY fortunate to come out of the VERY TOUGH SoCon without 3 or 4 losses.

SoCon Football is better than Big Sky, better than CAA, and very, very close or equal to MVFC-level…but the TripleStackedDeck structure of the FCS Playoffs…actually QuadrupleStacked because of the sparse number of SoCon Teams granted participation…has prevented the SoCon from proving that on the field.

This is not the SoCon of 2014, but FCS people want to continue imagining that it is because it helps them support their own agendas.

I get the argument, but the thing that has to happen is for a SoCon team to go on the road and beat a NDSU or Montana State in the playoffs. That will start shifting the thinking.

Admittedly, the SoCon benefitted from a similar bias for years.

[FUBeAR]

Watching Furman in 2022, other than the Charleston Southern game and maybe WCU, I didn’t think Furman really dodged any bullets. Even against WCU, Furman led by three touchdowns at several points during the game. That game felt like an outlier.

Furman largely handled the teams they were supposed to handle.

You could look at it that way OR if you’re really trying to assess the overall strength & depth of the quality of the Teams in the SoCon, you might note…

* Furman was less than a TD+XP ahead of near-cellar-dweller, ETSU, until under 1 minute to play
* Furman lost to what should have been #1 or #2 Seeded Samford, but only without the Paladins starting QB and with the worst official’s call in the history of college football
* Furman only led near-cellar-dweller, CIT, 7-3 at halftime
* Furman led WCU by less than a TD with 2 minutes to play
* Chattanooga was less than a TD away from beating Furman the entire 4th quarter

The point is NOT that Furman wasn’t good. We were. We were a Top Team nationally and DESERVED a Top #5 or #6 Seed, but we were also EXTREMELY fortunate to come out of the VERY TOUGH SoCon without 3 or 4 losses.

SoCon Football is better than Big Sky, better than CAA, and very, very close or equal to MVFC-level…but the TripleStackedDeck structure of the FCS Playoffs…actually QuadrupleStacked because of the sparse number of SoCon Teams granted participation…has prevented the SoCon from proving that on the field.

This is not the SoCon of 2014, but FCS people want to continue imagining that it is because it helps them support their own agendas.

I get the argument, but the thing that has to happen is for a SoCon team to go on the road and beat a NDSU or Montana State in the playoffs. That will start shifting the thinking.

Admittedly, the SoCon benefitted from a similar bias for years.

Under the current 24/8 Playoff Structure...

Exactly 1 out of 35 Visiting Teams (0.028) facing seeded Home NDSU and/or Home Montana State Teams have accomplished what you are saying must be accomplished "to shift the thinking." - #4 Seed, eventual National Champion, 2016's JMU


18 of 216 (0.083) Playoff Teams have been SoCon Teams...so, if FUBeAR is mathing correctly...that means a SoCon Team has less than one quarter of one percent chance (0.23%, to be more precise) of doing what you are saying must be accomplished. And that % doesn't consider that SoCon Team's have rarely been seeded and never above a #6 in this Playoff Structure.

NDSU has a .963 record at home
Montana State has a .875 record at home and a .200 record in non-home games.

Typical home field advantage in one study of college football (cannot cite source or link - sorry) was found to produce a .628 winning record.

So...in the Playoffs, NDSU & Montana State have a historical Home Field Advantage ~40-55% Higher than the typical College Football home field advantage.

In the 24/8 structure, NDSU has NEVER played an Away Playoff Game and Montana State has played 3/4's of their Playoff Games at home with an Average Seed of 6.81 in their 4 Playoff Seasons. Other #7 Seeds (6.81 is pretty darn close to #7) have played 43% of their games at Home. Why 75% @ Home for the Bobcats and <50% @ Home for similarly seeded Teams? Dunno....seems odd, don't it?

No - what needs to happen IF the Playoff Structure remains unchanged (and BTW, FUBeAR has ciphered out that Seeding 16 vs. 8 Teams would actually be a very bad thing for Teams seeded from 13-16 (which would most likely 'fall' to SoCon at-large Teams - it would further exacerbate the Double/Triple/Quadruple Stacked Decks we have now)) is that the Committee needs to REALLY watch games and REALLY see what the SoCon is doing as FUBeAR has called out... and granting the SoCon Teams Playoff opportunities and Playoff Seeding that are commensurate with the quality of SoCon Teams. This quality cannot be determined by ONLY looking at the self-fulling biases propagated by the current Playoff structure and Playoff selection & seeding process.

#DefundTheCommittee

[The Jackal]

Watching Furman in 2022, other than the Charleston Southern game and maybe WCU, I didn’t think Furman really dodged any bullets. Even against WCU, Furman led by three touchdowns at several points during the game. That game felt like an outlier.

Furman largely handled the teams they were supposed to handle.

You could look at it that way OR if you’re really trying to assess the overall strength & depth of the quality of the Teams in the SoCon, you might note…

* Furman was less than a TD+XP ahead of near-cellar-dweller, ETSU, until under 1 minute to play
* Furman lost to what should have been #1 or #2 Seeded Samford, but only without the Paladins starting QB and with the worst official’s call in the history of college football
* Furman only led near-cellar-dweller, CIT, 7-3 at halftime
* Furman led WCU by less than a TD with 2 minutes to play
* Chattanooga was less than a TD away from beating Furman the entire 4th quarter

The point is NOT that Furman wasn’t good. We were. We were a Top Team nationally and DESERVED a Top #5 or #6 Seed, but we were also EXTREMELY fortunate to come out of the VERY TOUGH SoCon without 3 or 4 losses.

SoCon Football is better than Big Sky, better than CAA, and very, very close or equal to MVFC-level…but the TripleStackedDeck structure of the FCS Playoffs…actually QuadrupleStacked because of the sparse number of SoCon Teams granted participation…has prevented the SoCon from proving that on the field.

This is not the SoCon of 2014, but FCS people want to continue imagining that it is because it helps them support their own agendas.

I get the argument, but the thing that has to happen is for a SoCon team to go on the road and beat a NDSU or Montana State in the playoffs. That will start shifting the thinking.

Admittedly, the SoCon benefitted from a similar bias for years.

Under the current 24/8 Playoff Structure...

Exactly 1 out of 35 Visiting Teams (0.028) facing seeded Home NDSU and/or Home Montana State Teams have accomplished what you are saying must be accomplished "to shift the thinking." - #4 Seed, eventual National Champion, 2016's JMU


18 of 216 (0.083) Playoff Teams have been SoCon Teams...so, if FUBeAR is mathing correctly...that means a SoCon Team has less than one quarter of one percent chance (0.23%, to be more precise) of doing what you are saying must be accomplished. And that % doesn't consider that SoCon Team's have rarely been seeded and never above a #6 in this Playoff Structure.

NDSU has a .963 record at home
Montana State has a .875 record at home and a .200 record in non-home games.

Typical home field advantage in one study of college football (cannot cite source or link - sorry) was found to produce a .628 winning record.

So...in the Playoffs, NDSU & Montana State have a historical Home Field Advantage ~40-55% Higher than the typical College Football home field advantage.

In the 24/8 structure, NDSU has NEVER played an Away Playoff Game and Montana State has played 3/4's of their Playoff Games at home with an Average Seed of 6.81 in their 4 Playoff Seasons. Other #7 Seeds (6.81 is pretty darn close to #7) have played 43% of their games at Home. Why 75% @ Home for the Bobcats and <50% @ Home for similarly seeded Teams? Dunno....seems odd, don't it?

No - what needs to happen IF the Playoff Structure remains unchanged (and BTW, FUBeAR has ciphered out that Seeding 16 vs. 8 Teams would actually be a very bad thing for Teams seeded from 13-16 (which would most likely 'fall' to SoCon at-large Teams - it would further exacerbate the Double/Triple/Quadruple Stacked Decks we have now)) is that the Committee needs to REALLY watch games and REALLY see what the SoCon is doing as FUBeAR has called out... and granting the SoCon Teams Playoff opportunities and Playoff Seeding that are commensurate with the quality of SoCon Teams. This quality cannot be determined by ONLY looking at the self-fulling biases propagated by the current Playoff structure and Playoff selection & seeding process.

#DefundTheCommittee

I think it depends on how you want to look at the math.

The playoff field expanded to 20 teams in 2010. That expansion roughly coincides with NDSU's appearance on the national FCS scene. They had moved conferences by that point and fully transitioned from DII.

There have been 12 FCS playoff brackets since the field expanded to 20 (I'm not counting 2020 because that was a strange COVID season and everything was different). Of those 12 playoff brackets, the SoCon has sent a representative to Fargo in 6 of them (50%). I do not believe any SoCon team has won up there (2022 Samford, 2021 ETSU, 2017 Wofford, 2013 Furman, 2012 Wofford/GSU, 2011 GSU).

In at least one season (2012), the SoCon sent two teams to Fargo (Wofford and Georgia Southern). That almost happened again in 2022 but for the phantom holding call in the Furman/UIW game (NDSU had already vanquished Samford).

I don't disagree with your premise, though. The committee and national FCS landscape should be more up to speed on what the SoCon is doing.

I think Furman really opened some eyeballs last year by blasting Elon. That Elon team had already beaten 3 of the 4 other CAA playoff teams and looked completely outclassed by Furman.

At bottom, however, I do not see a SoCon team getting one of those precious few top seeds until one of our teams goes on the road and shows they can win. The air of inevitability and invincibility is just too strong with some of these teams. Ideally, the committee would take each season on its face and watch the games and see what happens. They don't. They look at records, strength of schedule, and then prior history/pedigree.

[The Jackal]

Unrelated.

I had missed this. Samford goes to Cullowhee in Week 2. That's big early season SoCon game.

[FUBeAR]

Watching Furman in 2022, other than the Charleston Southern game and maybe WCU, I didn’t think Furman really dodged any bullets. Even against WCU, Furman led by three touchdowns at several points during the game. That game felt like an outlier.

Furman largely handled the teams they were supposed to handle.

You could look at it that way OR if you’re really trying to assess the overall strength & depth of the quality of the Teams in the SoCon, you might note…

* Furman was less than a TD+XP ahead of near-cellar-dweller, ETSU, until under 1 minute to play
* Furman lost to what should have been #1 or #2 Seeded Samford, but only without the Paladins starting QB and with the worst official’s call in the history of college football
* Furman only led near-cellar-dweller, CIT, 7-3 at halftime
* Furman led WCU by less than a TD with 2 minutes to play
* Chattanooga was less than a TD away from beating Furman the entire 4th quarter

The point is NOT that Furman wasn’t good. We were. We were a Top Team nationally and DESERVED a Top #5 or #6 Seed, but we were also EXTREMELY fortunate to come out of the VERY TOUGH SoCon without 3 or 4 losses.

SoCon Football is better than Big Sky, better than CAA, and very, very close or equal to MVFC-level…but the TripleStackedDeck structure of the FCS Playoffs…actually QuadrupleStacked because of the sparse number of SoCon Teams granted participation…has prevented the SoCon from proving that on the field.

This is not the SoCon of 2014, but FCS people want to continue imagining that it is because it helps them support their own agendas.

I get the argument, but the thing that has to happen is for a SoCon team to go on the road and beat a NDSU or Montana State in the playoffs. That will start shifting the thinking.

Admittedly, the SoCon benefitted from a similar bias for years.

Under the current 24/8 Playoff Structure...

Exactly 1 out of 35 Visiting Teams (0.028) facing seeded Home NDSU and/or Home Montana State Teams have accomplished what you are saying must be accomplished "to shift the thinking." - #4 Seed, eventual National Champion, 2016's JMU


18 of 216 (0.083) Playoff Teams have been SoCon Teams...so, if FUBeAR is mathing correctly...that means a SoCon Team has less than one quarter of one percent chance (0.23%, to be more precise) of doing what you are saying must be accomplished. And that % doesn't consider that SoCon Team's have rarely been seeded and never above a #6 in this Playoff Structure.

NDSU has a .963 record at home
Montana State has a .875 record at home and a .200 record in non-home games.

Typical home field advantage in one study of college football (cannot cite source or link - sorry) was found to produce a .628 winning record.

So...in the Playoffs, NDSU & Montana State have a historical Home Field Advantage ~40-55% Higher than the typical College Football home field advantage.

In the 24/8 structure, NDSU has NEVER played an Away Playoff Game and Montana State has played 3/4's of their Playoff Games at home with an Average Seed of 6.81 in their 4 Playoff Seasons. Other #7 Seeds (6.81 is pretty darn close to #7) have played 43% of their games at Home. Why 75% @ Home for the Bobcats and <50% @ Home for similarly seeded Teams? Dunno....seems odd, don't it?

No - what needs to happen IF the Playoff Structure remains unchanged (and BTW, FUBeAR has ciphered out that Seeding 16 vs. 8 Teams would actually be a very bad thing for Teams seeded from 13-16 (which would most likely 'fall' to SoCon at-large Teams - it would further exacerbate the Double/Triple/Quadruple Stacked Decks we have now)) is that the Committee needs to REALLY watch games and REALLY see what the SoCon is doing as FUBeAR has called out... and granting the SoCon Teams Playoff opportunities and Playoff Seeding that are commensurate with the quality of SoCon Teams. This quality cannot be determined by ONLY looking at the self-fulling biases propagated by the current Playoff structure and Playoff selection & seeding process.

#DefundTheCommittee

I think it depends on how you want to look at the math.

The playoff field expanded to 20 teams in 2010. That expansion roughly coincides with NDSU's appearance on the national FCS scene. They had moved conferences by that point and fully transitioned from DII.

There have been 12 FCS playoff brackets since the field expanded to 20 (I'm not counting 2020 because that was a strange COVID season and everything was different). Of those 12 playoff brackets, the SoCon has sent a representative to Fargo in 6 of them (50%). I do not believe any SoCon team has won up there (2022 Samford, 2021 ETSU, 2017 Wofford, 2013 Furman, 2012 Wofford/GSU, 2011 GSU).

In at least one season (2012), the SoCon sent two teams to Fargo (Wofford and Georgia Southern). That almost happened again in 2022 but for the phantom holding call in the Furman/UIW game (NDSU had already vanquished Samford).

I don't disagree with your premise, though. The committee and national FCS landscape should be more up to speed on what the SoCon is doing.

I think Furman really opened some eyeballs last year by blasting Elon. That Elon team had already beaten 3 of the 4 other CAA playoff teams and looked completely outclassed by Furman.

At bottom, however, I do not see a SoCon team getting one of those precious few top seeds until one of our teams goes on the road and shows they can win. The air of inevitability and invincibility is just too strong with some of these teams. Ideally, the committee would take each season on its face and watch the games and see what happens. They don't. They look at records, strength of schedule, and then prior history/pedigree.

Other than 1 Team, 1 time - a Team that ended up as FCS Champions - no Team from ANY Conference has gone into Fargo or Bozeman and beaten a seeded NDSU or seeded Montana State Team.

No Big Sky Team has done that.
No MVFC has done that.
No (other) CAA Team has done that.

Yet, here’s the breakdown of Participant #’s and Seeded Teams #’s by Conference since the 24/8 structure began (except 2020 - that was not a 24/8 tourney)…

By Number of Teams Selected...
Rank Conference # Teams # Top 8 Seeds Avg Top 8 Seed Avg Overall Seed
1 MVFC 37 16 2.89 10.16
2T Big Sky 35 19 5.02 10.35
2T CAA 35 13 4.28 11.28
4 Southland 23 8 5.67 12.62
5 SoCon 19 5 6.80 13.27
6 OVC 15 5 2.40 11.35
7 Big South 13 3 6.33 14.11
8 Patriot 12 2 8.00 15.08
9T NEC 9 0 n/a 16.53
9T PFL 9 0 n/a 16.50
11 MEAC 4 0 n/a 16.50
12 ASUN-WAC 3 1 1.00 12.63
13T SWAC 1 0 n/a 16.50
13T Independent 1 0 n/a 16.50
Totals 216 72 4.71 13.08

By Number of Top 8 Seeds 'gifted' by the Committee
Rank Conference # Teams # Top 8 Seeds Avg Top 8 Seed Avg Overall Seed
1 Big Sky 35 19 5.02 10.35
2 MVFC 37 16 2.89 10.16
3 CAA 35 13 4.28 11.28
4 Southland 23 8 5.67 12.62
5T SoCon 19 5 6.80 13.27
5T OVC 15 5 2.40 11.35
7 Big South 13 3 6.33 14.11
8 Patriot 12 2 8.00 15.08
9 ASUN-WAC 3 1 1.00 12.63
10T NEC 9 0 n/a 16.53
10T PFL 9 0 n/a 16.50
10T MEAC 4 0 n/a 16.50
10T SWAC 1 0 n/a 16.50
10T Independent 1 0 n/a 16.50
Totals 216 72 4.71 13.08

By Top 8 Seed Avg of Top 8 Seeds Rec'd
Rank Conference # Teams # Top 8 Seeds Avg Top 8 Seed Avg Overall Seed
1 ASUN-WAC 3 1 1.00 12.63
2 OVC 15 5 2.40 11.35
3 MVFC 37 16 2.89 10.16
4 CAA 35 13 4.28 11.28
5 Big Sky 35 19 5.02 10.35
6 Southland 23 8 5.67 12.62
7 Big South 13 3 6.33 14.11
8 SoCon 19 5 6.80 13.27
9 Patriot 12 2 8.00 15.08
10 NEC 9 0 n/a 16.53
11 PFL 9 0 n/a 16.50
12 MEAC 4 0 n/a 16.50
13 SWAC 1 0 n/a 16.50
14 Independent 1 0 n/a 16.50
Totals 216 72 4.71 13.08

By Average Overall Seed (using 16.5 for Unseeded Teams ((9+24)/2))
Rank Conference # Teams # Top 8 Seeds Avg Top 8 Seed Avg Overall Seed
1 MVFC 37 16 2.89 10.16
2 Big Sky 35 19 5.02 10.35
3 CAA 35 13 4.28 11.28
4 OVC 15 5 2.40 11.35
5 Southland 23 8 5.67 12.62
6 ASUN-WAC 3 1 1.00 12.63
7 SoCon 19 5 6.80 13.27
8 Big South 13 3 6.33 14.11
9 Patriot 12 2 8.00 15.08
10T PFL 9 0 n/a 16.50
10T MEAC 4 0 n/a 16.50
10T SWAC 1 0 n/a 16.50
10T Independent 1 0 n/a 16.50
10T NEC 9 0 n/a 16.50
Totals 216 72 4.71 13.08

Average of Each Conference's Rank across these 4 metrics of Playoffs Selections & Seedings - # of Teams, # Seeded, Avg Seed of Seeded Teams, and Average Seed of All Selected Teams...

Rank Conf Avg Rank
1 MVFC 1.75
2 Big Sky 2.5
3 CAA 3
4 OVC 4.25
5 Southland 4.75
6 SoCon 6.25
7 ASUN-WAC 6.75
8 Big South 7.25
9 Patriot 8.5
10 PFL 9.75
11 NEC 10.25
12 MEAC 10.75
13 SWAC 11.5
14 Independent 11.75

So....there it is....during the 24/8 Playoff Era - the SoCon has rec'd recognition (Selections / Seeds) from the Playoff Committee as the 6th best FCS Conference.

Massey has the SoCon 3rd. Sagarin lists the SoCon in 4th (ahead of the CAA). Warren Nolan shows the SoCon as 5th. The Analyst/Craig Haley ranks the SoCon as 4th.

Only the Playoff Committee has rated the SoCon so low. They've put us where they wanted us....and we'll stay there until we start getting equitable #’s of Teams Selected and for those Teams to be Seeded appropriately. The SoCon has been under-selected and under-seeded throughout this era and the Playoff success results reflect that reality WAY more than they reflect the quality of the Teams in the SoCon.

[FUBeAR]

Unrelated.

I had missed this. Samford goes to Cullowhee in Week 2. That's big early season SoCon game.

Yep - the cantamounts are plannin’ on comin’ after the bullpups as if theys them Nittany Lions!

[The Jackal]

Interesting you'd reference Penn State considering Samford's football uniforms are just about a clear knock off of the Nittany Lions. Other than a logo on the helmet and silver outline around the numbers, it's essentially the same uniform. Even the manufacturer (Nike) is the same.

That's not terribly surprising for Samford, who has never really been able to settle on school colors, a logo, a word mark, font style, or brand cohesiveness. Why not just copy someone else?

[Roundball]

Why do Bulldogs fans hate Furman so much? I witnessed it in Charleston this past basketball season as their Bulldogs beat our Paladins. They absolutely hate Furman.

['Din Djarin]

Why do Bulldogs fans hate Furman so much? I witnessed it in Charleston this past basketball season as their Bulldogs beat our Paladins. They absolutely hate Furman.

Who cares what they think?

[Roundball]

Why do Bulldogs fans hate Furman so much? I witnessed it in Charleston this past basketball season as their Bulldogs beat our Paladins. They absolutely hate Furman.

Who cares what they think?

I care, or would not have asked the question. Seriously, I witnessed and felt the hate as we left their nasty arena. It is a different kind of hatred. I call it being jealous.

[Roundball]

We are going to beat the Gamecocks, 31-27.