Our Playoff Chances
It's tough to gauge because there are a lot of teams on the bubble this year, and most of them are 6-4, 6-5, or 7-4. The North Dakota and Idaho State losses probably knock them out; I think Stony Brook is still in. With almost all of the games played today, our main competitors for the last couple of at-large bids would seem to be Eastern KY, Lamar, Monmouth, Incarnate Word (interesting case: they are also 6-4 with a cancelled game), and Northern Iowa. Only 1 or 2 of those teams will get in, and each of them has had good and bad games this year. This math professor thinks our chances of getting in are about 40%.
Difference with Incarnate Word is they intentionally canceled their game to play a later contest against Iowa State scheduled to be played during the FCS playoffs.mathprofhiker wrote: ↑Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:52 pmIt's tough to gauge because there are a lot of teams on the bubble this year, and most of them are 6-4, 6-5, or 7-4. The North Dakota and Idaho State losses probably knock them out; I think Stony Brook is still in. With almost all of the games played today, our main competitors for the last couple of at-large bids would seem to be Eastern KY, Lamar, Monmouth, Incarnate Word (interesting case: they are also 6-4 with a cancelled game), and Northern Iowa. Only 1 or 2 of those teams will get in, and each of them has had good and bad games this year. This math professor thinks our chances of getting in are about 40%.
I think the committee will look at Furman on their 10 game slate and not make any assumptions on the Colgate game. Furman won six of their last seven. They have quality wins and no terrible losses. A lot of at large teams have some truly bad losses on their resume.
I’m tired of keeping up with our chances and bubble teams. We will find out tomorrow afternoon. After the big win in basketball, I am going to believe.
nobowls.com has us in and going to Jacksonville State and then to Kennesaw State.
http://nobowls.com
http://nobowls.com
Anyone remember the last time we went to Jacksonville State? *Insert thinking emoji here*The Jackal wrote: ↑Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:00 pmnobowls.com has us in and going to Jacksonville State and then to Kennesaw State.
http://nobowls.com
Been 13 years.fufanatic wrote: ↑Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:43 pmAnyone remember the last time we went to Jacksonville State? *Insert thinking emoji here*The Jackal wrote: ↑Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:00 pmnobowls.com has us in and going to Jacksonville State and then to Kennesaw State.
http://nobowls.com
I also remember the hide tanning we gave them in the playoffs a few years before that.
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2 of the 3 FCS writers foe Hero Sports have us in.
One has us at Nichols St and the other at Towson.
One has us at Nichols St and the other at Towson.
Nobowls. 169 out of 180" correct since 2008The Jackal wrote: ↑Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:00 pmnobowls.com has us in and going to Jacksonville State and then to Kennesaw State.
http://nobowls.com
The guy that didn’t seemed to give an at large bid to Monmouth. I just don’t see a big south team without a single win over a good team getting in over furman.
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I think we will be a tough draw in the post season. Our offense is one of the more multiple looks in the country.
I think it would be hard for a team to pop in a video of us with a couple days to prepare and figure out how to stop our offensive attack. Mercer players, for instance, noted they had seen furman film for weeks leading up to this week while preparing for other teams. Last year, both teams we played in the playoffs had already seen us.
I like our chances against a defense that has never seen us before. We throw a lot at you.
I think it would be hard for a team to pop in a video of us with a couple days to prepare and figure out how to stop our offensive attack. Mercer players, for instance, noted they had seen furman film for weeks leading up to this week while preparing for other teams. Last year, both teams we played in the playoffs had already seen us.
I like our chances against a defense that has never seen us before. We throw a lot at you.
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Expanding/refining what I wrote before, we should be ahead of Monmouth and (probably) Incarnate Word based mainly on strength of schedule. We are probably behind Northern Iowa: they went 6-5 with a brutal schedule, and they have a win over a top 3 team (South Dakota State): no other bubble team has a win anywhere near that good. That's the kind of 6-5 resume that typically earns an at-large bid. So it probably comes down to us, Lamar, and Eastern KY. Lamar's resume is almost identical to ours: 6-4 (one of their wins is non-D1), 1 win over a sure playoff team (Sam Houston State), 1 win over a bubble team (Incarnate Word), a couple of questionable losses, and they are riding a 6 game winning streak. EKU is 7-4, all D1 wins and 2 FBS losses but only 1 win over a probable playoff team (SE MO St.) and a couple of FCS losses by large margins (56-7 vs. Jax St. and 34-6 vs. Murray St., the latter of which will not make the playoffs). Very tough call among those 3. We will know how it goes in about 4 hours. 
As a point of clarification...Sam Houston State is NOT going to the playoffs. Lamar's win over McNeese may get them in the playoffs, but possibly at the expense of Incarnate Word. There should never be 3 Southland conference teams in the playoffs...they're almost as weak as the OVC.mathprofhiker wrote: ↑Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:41 amExpanding/refining what I wrote before, we should be ahead of Monmouth and (probably) Incarnate Word based mainly on strength of schedule. We are probably behind Northern Iowa: they went 6-5 with a brutal schedule, and they have a win over a top 3 team (South Dakota State): no other bubble team has a win anywhere near that good. That's the kind of 6-5 resume that typically earns an at-large bid. So it probably comes down to us, Lamar, and Eastern KY. Lamar's resume is almost identical to ours: 6-4 (one of their wins is non-D1), 1 win over a sure playoff team (Sam Houston State), 1 win over a bubble team (Incarnate Word), a couple of questionable losses, and they are riding a 6 game winning streak. EKU is 7-4, all D1 wins and 2 FBS losses but only 1 win over a probable playoff team (SE MO St.) and a couple of FCS losses by large margins (56-7 vs. Jax St. and 34-6 vs. Murray St., the latter of which will not make the playoffs). Very tough call among those 3. We will know how it goes in about 4 hours.
You are correct; my apologies. Sam Houston finished 6-5; they were ranked in the top 20 earlier in the season and then lost 3 of their last 5. Thank you for noticing my error.MNORM wrote: ↑Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:55 amAs a point of clarification...Sam Houston State is NOT going to the playoffs. Lamar's win over McNeese may get them in the playoffs, but possibly at the expense of Incarnate Word. There should never be 3 Southland conference teams in the playoffs...they're almost as weak as the OVC.mathprofhiker wrote: ↑Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:41 amExpanding/refining what I wrote before, we should be ahead of Monmouth and (probably) Incarnate Word based mainly on strength of schedule. We are probably behind Northern Iowa: they went 6-5 with a brutal schedule, and they have a win over a top 3 team (South Dakota State): no other bubble team has a win anywhere near that good. That's the kind of 6-5 resume that typically earns an at-large bid. So it probably comes down to us, Lamar, and Eastern KY. Lamar's resume is almost identical to ours: 6-4 (one of their wins is non-D1), 1 win over a sure playoff team (Sam Houston State), 1 win over a bubble team (Incarnate Word), a couple of questionable losses, and they are riding a 6 game winning streak. EKU is 7-4, all D1 wins and 2 FBS losses but only 1 win over a probable playoff team (SE MO St.) and a couple of FCS losses by large margins (56-7 vs. Jax St. and 34-6 vs. Murray St., the latter of which will not make the playoffs). Very tough call among those 3. We will know how it goes in about 4 hours.
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The Southland is tough because they play, I think, 9 conference games. So, no one really knows how they stack up nationally because they mostly play themselves.mathprofhiker wrote: ↑Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:00 amYou are correct; my apologies. Sam Houston finished 6-5; they were ranked in the top 20 earlier in the season and then lost 3 of their last 5. Thank you for noticing my error.MNORM wrote: ↑Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:55 amAs a point of clarification...Sam Houston State is NOT going to the playoffs. Lamar's win over McNeese may get them in the playoffs, but possibly at the expense of Incarnate Word. There should never be 3 Southland conference teams in the playoffs...they're almost as weak as the OVC.mathprofhiker wrote: ↑Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:41 amExpanding/refining what I wrote before, we should be ahead of Monmouth and (probably) Incarnate Word based mainly on strength of schedule. We are probably behind Northern Iowa: they went 6-5 with a brutal schedule, and they have a win over a top 3 team (South Dakota State): no other bubble team has a win anywhere near that good. That's the kind of 6-5 resume that typically earns an at-large bid. So it probably comes down to us, Lamar, and Eastern KY. Lamar's resume is almost identical to ours: 6-4 (one of their wins is non-D1), 1 win over a sure playoff team (Sam Houston State), 1 win over a bubble team (Incarnate Word), a couple of questionable losses, and they are riding a 6 game winning streak. EKU is 7-4, all D1 wins and 2 FBS losses but only 1 win over a probable playoff team (SE MO St.) and a couple of FCS losses by large margins (56-7 vs. Jax St. and 34-6 vs. Murray St., the latter of which will not make the playoffs). Very tough call among those 3. We will know how it goes in about 4 hours.
I will say that last year, I think the committee took a 7 win Furman team that finished tied for second over a 9 win McNeese team.
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