Incarnate Word

[FUwolfpacker]

I listen to every FCS podcast I can find.
Big difference between the podcasters who actually watch the games and those who just look at the box score and stats.
The former are very impressed w Furman.
The latter consistently predict Furman to lose.
I think part of lower ranking in pass defense is because teams just can’t run against us.

The FCS reddit guy did a twitter space last night and I pointed that out as well.

We're still very prone to give up the deep ball. We have won very few jump balls relative to how good we've been everywhere else. Our defensive pass efficiency is 27th in the country. If you look at the number of passes attempted, no one in the top 50 has faced more attempts than we have. The only other team to have faced more than 400 pass attempts in the top 50 is Sacramento St. Defensive 3rd down percentage is also 10th in the country. 6th in scoring defense. 22nd in red zone defense. I think we're going to have a really hard test against UIW, but everyone focusing singularly on the pass defense number doesn't tell the full story of this defense.

I'm sure some people will look at all of that and think people throw more on us because we're susceptible to the pass (probably true). But if we're really THAT bad on pass defense, wouldn't those other numbers also be a lot worse? I'm not smart enough to make sense of all of that, and we can twist stats to fit most narratives. I think we're a little tougher on D than people are making us out to be.

A couple of things that concern me with UIW...

I think a lot of it has to do with how much the rest of the Southland struggled this year, but UIW's defensive stats are better than I thought they would be. If their defense can play up near that level, it's going to put a good bit of pressure on our offense to put up points consistently (preferably TDs and not FGs).

The speed they operate is going to make getting everyone in the right place tough. When you make a mistake is usually when they burn you. Thankfully we have seen something like that with WCU. We'll find out how much we learned and improved from that game this week.

[Davemeister]

When asked his thoughts on the game, CCH said "It isn't going to be 14-10."

No matter how well our D holds up, UIW is going to put up some points. Our O will have to be at its most productive to hang with them.

We can't take a knife to a gunfight. This one is likely to be a Wild West shootout.

I hope gofurman is very, very, VERY, skeered of The Word.

[The Jackal]

A few thoughts

1. Teams can't run on us. They essentially have to throw the ball to move it.

2. We are 6th nationally in scoring defense. Yardage is an odd stat that is both sort of relevant but mostly not relevant. You win football games by keeping teams from scoring, not by keeping teams from gaining passing yards.

3. Only four teams nationally have faced more third downs than Furman (179), and we are top 10 in third down defense. So, in situations where we need to get off the field, we've been excellent.

4. We are highly ranked in pass defense efficiency. We keep teams to a low completion percentage and force a lot of interceptions.

5. Even though you can gain yards through the air, it can be risky. We limit completions and we are one of the nation's best teams at breaking up passes and forcing turnovers on throws.

6. We are frequently leading in the game - teams are unable to establish the run and are having to throw the ball while trailing in the game.

[The Jackal]

When asked his thoughts on the game, CCH said "It isn't going to be 14-10."

No matter how well our D holds up, UIW is going to put up some points. Our O will have to be at its most productive to hang with them.

We can't take a knife to a gunfight. This one is likely to be a Wild West shootout.

I hope gofurman is very, very, VERY, skeered of The Word.

Hendrix also mentioned that UIW is nothing we haven't seen before scheme-wise.

He compared them primarily to the Tyrie Adams era Western Carolina teams (who we can all remember was an incredibly dangerous team prone to a shootout).

At the same time, we've proven we can win shootouts.

[FUBeAR]

I hope gofurman is very, very, VERY, skeered of The Word.

Needs to stay Old Testament focused this week then, don’t he?

[Purple rain]

We have won a bunch of tough games coming down the stretch. I hope that grind will pay dividends with this matchup Saturday.
We have beat some dang good football teams.

[FUBeAR]

Passing Yards Allowed is a pretty stupid stat taken as a stand-alone…

For example…

Illinois State is ranked #6 in Passing Yards Allowed AND they are giving up 6.92 yds/pass attempt. Furman is giving up 6.85 yds/pass attempt. Which Team is better on Defense? Furman is #6 in Scoring Defense and Illinois State is #16. Advantage Paladins!

Villanova is ranked #23 in Passing Yards Allowed AND has allowed 23 TD passes. Furman has allowed 17 TD passes (while playing 1 more game). Which Team is better on Defense? Furman is #6 in Scoring Defense and Villanova is #69. Advantage Paladins!

[The Jackal]

Passing Yards Allowed is a pretty stupid stat taken as a stand-alone…

For example…

Illinois State is ranked #6 in Passing Yards Allowed AND they are giving up 6.92 yds/pass attempt. Furman is giving up 6.85 yds/pass attempt. Which Team is better on Defense? Furman is #6 in Scoring Defense and Illinois State is #16. Advantage Paladins!

Villanova is ranked #23 in Passing Yards Allowed AND has allowed 23 TD passes. Furman has allowed 17 TD passes (while playing 1 more game). Which Team is better on Defense? Furman is #6 in Scoring Defense and Villanova is #69. Advantage Paladins!

To quote Dean Peas:

"I could really care less about where we end up in total yardage at the end of the year. Could care less. What I want to be is good in the red zone, good on third down, good in takeaways, good in scoring. Those are the important factors."

We're good in the red zone. Good on third down. Good in takeaways. Good in scoring.

[Davemeister]

We better be.

[stonemd]

Massey has the game as a tossup
https://masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/games

Furman ranked 7 sos 26
UIW Ranked 9 sos 58

[FUBeAR]

Massey has the game as a tossup
https://masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/games

Furman ranked 7 sos 26
UIW Ranked 9 sos 58

Using Massey…

Furman has beaten #16, #19, #23, #44, #53, #54, #57, ____________#83, and #100. _________Furman lost to #6
UIW has beaten _________#21, ________________#74, #77, #78, #80, #90,_____ #114, #115. UIW lost to__________ #22

#21 is Southern Illinois. UIW beat them 9/3 in Game #1. SIU finished 5-6 and are only #21 because Massey has a heavy positive bias toward MVFC Teams that lose to other MVFC Teams. 6-5 UNI is #13, for example.

Meanwhile, Furman has defeated 7 Teams FAR better than any other (besides SIU) FCS Team that UIW defeated.

Meanwhile, also, UIW lost to the only other FCS Team that was better than, say, Wofford or Tennessee Tech that they played (SELA).

Oh…UIW also defeated FBS (2-10) Nevada, who Massey would slot in at #32 in FCS, which is about halfway between Elon & WCU.

Bottom line…We may find out Saturday that UIW is a good Football Team, but they really haven’t done much to prove it, so far this season…other than putting up some very flashy numbers.

[fupaladin01]

UIW is a very good football team. They have an incredible talent at QB. They are not enormous all across the roster, but they have good size at key positions and on the lines. Scott will probably hurt us a few times with his range and accuracy, and maybe his legs- similar to what Elon QB did. However, I doubt UIW has had the constant pressure in the backfield that our D will bring, or the disruptions to the pass that our CBs and Safeties will bring.
Their defense has been solid, but not many Southland teams challenged UIW with the balanced offense that we will.
I'm willing to predict a competetive game, and I believe we can win, but we must be the aggressors on O and D and we must execute.

[fupaladin01]

I hope gofurman is very, very, VERY, skeered of The Word.

Needs to stay Old Testament focused this week then, don’t he?

Won't be able to avoid The (John 1:1) Word as theophanies abound in the OT from Genesis to the prophets. But being appropriately skeered is wise. (Prov. 9:10)

[The Jackal]

UIW is a very good football team. They have an incredible talent at QB. They are not enormous all across the roster, but they have good size at key positions and on the lines. Scott will probably hurt us a few times with his range and accuracy, and maybe his legs- similar to what Elon QB did. However, I doubt UIW has had the constant pressure in the backfield that our D will bring, or the disruptions to the pass that our CBs and Safeties will bring.
Their defense has been solid, but not many Southland teams challenged UIW with the balanced offense that we will.
I'm willing to predict a competetive game, and I believe we can win, but we must be the aggressors on O and D and we must execute.

One game that keeps jumping to mind is our 2004 clash against Georgia Southern. I believe that Eagle team came into Paladin Stadium averaging close to 50 points a game and winning by massive margins every week. No team was able to stay on the field with them.

Good things happen when you play physical fundamental football - tackle, block, do not turn the ball over, and be opportunistic on offense.

One takeaway from that game, too, was that sometimes these high flying teams that look unstoppable are not used to playing four quarters of football. They are used to playing a half - maybe three quarters - and watching the backups play out the game. The coaches aren't used to managing the clock late. They aren't used to coaching and playing in a tight game.

Sometimes the advantage goes to the more experienced team that has been in these battles.

[Bootie]

I got lost in a rabbit hole tonight reading the play-by-play charts of the UIW games. Some random things I noted…

No huddle.
They will rush on any down, more often than I had thought. 3rd and long is our friend.
Not afraid to go for it on 4th down…. Example: 4th and 4 on opponent’s 16 yd line, no huddle shotgun, pass complete for TD.

1st and 10 at their own 43 in a tight game:
Rush for 10
Rush for 3
Rush for 9
Rush for 2
TD pass

Another tight game, drive begins on UIW 25:
40 yard pass
Rush for 9
Rush for 5
Rush for 21 and TD

I found it interesting how long they would leave Scott in the game even after it was well in hand…

Vs SIU:
50-22 w 5:00 left in game. Scott still in game, throws TD pass.

vs Mcneese
41-20 with 40 seconds left, Scott still in game, throws TD pass.

vs Northwestern St
59-7 with 9:34 left, Scott still in game until TD.