If we win Saturday we are going to the playoffs (3 ranked wins ETSU at the time and Mercer and UTC) Win out and Samford loses one we are at least cochamps.
I think in the long run I am for whatever gets the most Socon teams in the playoffs (as long as one of those is Furman). The more SOCOn teams get in, the more playoff wins, the higher the rankings next year and the more chance of seeded SOCON teams. Rinse and repeat. Somehow the MVFC is still one of the “big three” though only 1 team has a seed worthy resume and the conference should really only get 2 in playoffs.
So our top 4 need to end w 2 teams w 1 FCS loss and 2 teams w 2 FCS losses. Samford may have best OOC win (then ranked KSU) so let’s give them 2 losses and we have to give Mercer the other loss since they play Furman. Maybe w that scenario all 4 get in.
Playoff projections
Straight from the horse’s mouth - everything you want to know about Playoffs selection, seeding, and bracketing.
A few things FUBeAR learned…Committee Chair is AD from Patriot League and PL is gonna be a 2 bid league this year if Fordham doesn’t lose to 3-6 Lafayette or 3-6 Colgate in the next 2 weeks…because they took another PL Team, Holy Cross (who will be seeded unless they lose to 3-6 Bryant or 2-7 Georgetown), to OT. Don’t ever tell FUBeAR, “there’s no such thing as a good loss” or “it doesn’t matter who you lose to; it’s only who you beat that counts.” And, no…the Chair didn’t actually say any of these things outright, but FUBeAR is an expert at listening between the lines…and he said ‘em. Mark FUBeAR’s words.
Anyway…it is a very informative listen and worth the 30 minutes if you care about FCS Playoffs.
https://herosports.com/fcs-podcast-pla ... ruax-bzbz/
FCS Podcast: FCS Playoff Committee Chair Jermaine Truax
Sam Herder by Sam Herder November 10, 2022
On this episode, Sam is joined by the Division I Football Championship Committee chair Jermaine Truax to talk FCS playoffs. They discuss the selection process, including what committee members look at on resumes, how ranked wins are viewed, how FBS wins are evaluated, and how the seeds are ordered.
They also discuss strength of schedule, losses, regionalization, why the committee is not doing an in-season rankings reveal, and the championship game being on a Sunday this season.
A few things FUBeAR learned…Committee Chair is AD from Patriot League and PL is gonna be a 2 bid league this year if Fordham doesn’t lose to 3-6 Lafayette or 3-6 Colgate in the next 2 weeks…because they took another PL Team, Holy Cross (who will be seeded unless they lose to 3-6 Bryant or 2-7 Georgetown), to OT. Don’t ever tell FUBeAR, “there’s no such thing as a good loss” or “it doesn’t matter who you lose to; it’s only who you beat that counts.” And, no…the Chair didn’t actually say any of these things outright, but FUBeAR is an expert at listening between the lines…and he said ‘em. Mark FUBeAR’s words.
Anyway…it is a very informative listen and worth the 30 minutes if you care about FCS Playoffs.
https://herosports.com/fcs-podcast-pla ... ruax-bzbz/
FCS Podcast: FCS Playoff Committee Chair Jermaine Truax
Sam Herder by Sam Herder November 10, 2022
On this episode, Sam is joined by the Division I Football Championship Committee chair Jermaine Truax to talk FCS playoffs. They discuss the selection process, including what committee members look at on resumes, how ranked wins are viewed, how FBS wins are evaluated, and how the seeds are ordered.
They also discuss strength of schedule, losses, regionalization, why the committee is not doing an in-season rankings reveal, and the championship game being on a Sunday this season.
NCAA MANUAL
20.10.1 ...intercollegiate athletics...competition in amateur athletics…
20.10.1.2 …maintaining a line of demarcation between student-athletes who participate in the Collegiate Model and athletes competing in the professional model
20.10.1 ...intercollegiate athletics...competition in amateur athletics…
20.10.1.2 …maintaining a line of demarcation between student-athletes who participate in the Collegiate Model and athletes competing in the professional model
I think there's a good shot at 4 SoCon teams. That said, none of us want any part of being the #4 SoCon team this season. Some SoCon team is going to get hosed.
This is obviously a big game on that front. A win tomorrow would give Furman the tie breaker over both UTC and Mercer.
This is obviously a big game on that front. A win tomorrow would give Furman the tie breaker over both UTC and Mercer.
I think there should be a national method for choosing autobid and breaking ties that applies to all conference. Ours isn’t bad though I would change our nebulous points allowed to
Points scored minus points allowed in games between the tied teams
If still tied
Points scored minus points allowed in conference games
If still tied (very unlikely)
Higher rates team in some accepted rating system (sagarin, Massey)
Coin flips are bogus
Points scored minus points allowed in games between the tied teams
If still tied
Points scored minus points allowed in conference games
If still tied (very unlikely)
Higher rates team in some accepted rating system (sagarin, Massey)
Coin flips are bogus
Agreed. And this OVC coin flip is extra-bogus.
All SEMO and UTM have to do to tie for the OVC Championship is each beat 2-7 Eastern Illinois and UTM has to also beat 3-6 Tennessee State, while SEMO has to also beat 1-8 Murray State. So, it’s a near certainty, they WILL tie for the OVC Championship at 5-0 without having played each other.
SEMO will be 9-2 and a lock for an at-large bid. UTM will be 7-4 and barely even on the bubble for an at-large bid. One can almost guarantee that UTM is gonna win that coin toss and steal an extra Playoff bid for the OVC.
So…there goes another of the 13 At-Large bids. With Fordham being a lock, IFBO, being the other one.
Would imagine this WackySun Alliance cockamamie PowerRanking scheme is gonna work out for that collection of renegade malcontents to try to another bid also. So, whichever Team has the best shot at an At-large - Probably Abilene Christian @ 8-3 will finish 2nd in the ShamScheme and the next closest to Playoffs Team - could be Kennesaw @ 7-4 will ‘win’ their AQ. Watch for it.
Down to 10…the more FUBeAR is looking at this fattening bubble, the more he fears they may find a way to screw 2 SoCon Teams out of an At-Large and only take 2.
NCAA MANUAL
20.10.1 ...intercollegiate athletics...competition in amateur athletics…
20.10.1.2 …maintaining a line of demarcation between student-athletes who participate in the Collegiate Model and athletes competing in the professional model
20.10.1 ...intercollegiate athletics...competition in amateur athletics…
20.10.1.2 …maintaining a line of demarcation between student-athletes who participate in the Collegiate Model and athletes competing in the professional model
I've also listened to the podcasts this week and FUBear's assessment is right on. We do NOT want to be the 4th SoCon team. I think a 2-L #3 SoCon gets in before OVC#2, ASUN-WAC#2, and even Fordham IMO just because a lot of committee members still recognize the brand of football and quality of athletes varies greatly between "power 3", mid-tier, and non-schollies like Patriot league. I also wouldn't be shocked if they steal an additional spot. The committee has just been that bad in recent years.
We also have to hope the CAA chops each other up and doesn't get 4-5 teams in. Even minus JMU, their status is still better than ours in the eyes of many pollsters. The math is slightly in our favor for 3-4 at-large spots, but I wouldn't doubt recency bias will work against us somewhat.
Furman can do our part by punching definitive wins this week and next.
We also have to hope the CAA chops each other up and doesn't get 4-5 teams in. Even minus JMU, their status is still better than ours in the eyes of many pollsters. The math is slightly in our favor for 3-4 at-large spots, but I wouldn't doubt recency bias will work against us somewhat.
Furman can do our part by punching definitive wins this week and next.
One positive this year too is that the top four SoCon teams really don't have any garish losses on their record.fupaladin01 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:57 amI've also listened to the podcasts this week and FUBear's assessment is right on. We do NOT want to be the 4th SoCon team. I think a 2-L #3 SoCon gets in before OVC#2, ASUN-WAC#2, and even Fordham IMO just because a lot of committee members still recognize the brand of football and quality of athletes varies greatly between "power 3", mid-tier, and non-schollies like Patriot league. I also wouldn't be shocked if they steal an additional spot. The committee has just been that bad in recent years.
We also have to hope the CAA chops each other up and doesn't get 4-5 teams in. Even minus JMU, their status is still better than ours in the eyes of many pollsters. The math is slightly in our favor for 3-4 at-large spots, but I wouldn't doubt recency bias will work against us somewhat.
Furman can do our part by punching definitive wins this week and next.
Everyone's handled their out of conference business and beaten the teams they should have beaten.
Yep - These 4 SoCon Teams beat all Teams played from the WAC/ASUN, the Big South, the OVC, and the PFL. 2 of these SoCon defeated opponents (Kennesaw (beaten by Samford) & Gardner-Webb (slaughtered by Mercer)) are still very much in contention for their Conference Championships/AQ berths.The Jackal wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:51 amOne positive this year too is that the top four SoCon teams really don't have any garish losses on their record.fupaladin01 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:57 amI've also listened to the podcasts this week and FUBear's assessment is right on. We do NOT want to be the 4th SoCon team. I think a 2-L #3 SoCon gets in before OVC#2, ASUN-WAC#2, and even Fordham IMO just because a lot of committee members still recognize the brand of football and quality of athletes varies greatly between "power 3", mid-tier, and non-schollies like Patriot league. I also wouldn't be shocked if they steal an additional spot. The committee has just been that bad in recent years.
We also have to hope the CAA chops each other up and doesn't get 4-5 teams in. Even minus JMU, their status is still better than ours in the eyes of many pollsters. The math is slightly in our favor for 3-4 at-large spots, but I wouldn't doubt recency bias will work against us somewhat.
Furman can do our part by punching definitive wins this week and next.
Everyone's handled their out of conference business and beaten the teams they should have beaten.
Samford and Mercer have already defeated their 5 SoCon “NOT’s” (ETSU, Woff, WCU, VMI, CIT) matchups and assuming Furman and Chatt TCB over Woffy & WCU, respectively, in the final week of the Season, all 4 of the SoCon “GOT’s” will have only lost to each other (Samford maybe not even that) and to an FBS P5 opponent.
SoCon is 4 Playoff Teams worthy.
Purple rain liked this
NCAA MANUAL
20.10.1 ...intercollegiate athletics...competition in amateur athletics…
20.10.1.2 …maintaining a line of demarcation between student-athletes who participate in the Collegiate Model and athletes competing in the professional model
20.10.1 ...intercollegiate athletics...competition in amateur athletics…
20.10.1.2 …maintaining a line of demarcation between student-athletes who participate in the Collegiate Model and athletes competing in the professional model
I think the chances of hosting a game are pretty slim. Furman in the past has shown no interest in hosting a first round game. It is understandable as those games are poorly attended everywhere. Thanksgiving weekend and fbs rivalry games and weather are all factors, excuses.
UTC and Samford knotted at 7 with 3:22 left in first.
would think we would get in now even if we lost to wofford as we hold the tiebreaker vrs both chattanooga and mercer should we all 3 end up with 2 losses or even if only 2 of us have 2 losses which chattanooga and mercer already have.also i do not think mercer can beat samford.and i do not believe we will lose to wofford.kudos to them though for turning their season around.
apaladin liked this
I think Mercer and UTC need to win next week or they will be in jeopardy of not making the playoffs.
UTC should be heavily favored over Western Carolina.
Mercer desperately needs a win against a ranked opponent (something Furman, Samford, and UTC have).
The hard part for the Bears is that they lose the tie breaker to both Furman and UTC. So, they are all but guaranteed the 4th spot even with a win unless UTC loses to WCU.