Playoff projections

[AstroDin]

I listened to Sam Herder's podcast on my way home from Charlotte.
He replayed his guest appearance on the ESPN Montana podcast about FCS.
The guest of the Montana show asked Sam how he compared East Coast schools to West Coast Schools. Sam said he compared the O-Line sizes, height, weight, do they have guts, etc. He said a school like Weber St has massive linemen that aren't fat guys—that's my interpretation.

So I watched the SacSt - Weber game yesterday. Compared to Furman's o-line, I saw nothing that made me think Weber's line was more athletic than the DINS. I'm not sure comparing o-lines is a way to differentiate teams from opposite sides of the country.

I think where the SoCon this year is underrated and would match up very well against the Big Sky is OB and RB. I hope one of the four teams gets a shot as a Big Sky team this playoff season.

[The Jackal]

I listened to Sam Herder's podcast on my way home from Charlotte.
He replayed his guest appearance on the ESPN Montana podcast about FCS.
The guest of the Montana show asked Sam how he compared East Coast schools to West Coast Schools. Sam said he compared the O-Line sizes, height, weight, do they have guts, etc. He said a school like Weber St has massive linemen that aren't fat guys—that's my interpretation.

So I watched the SacSt - Weber game yesterday. Compared to Furman's o-line, I saw nothing that made me think Weber's line was more athletic than the DINS. I'm not sure comparing o-lines is a way to differentiate teams from opposite sides of the country.

I think where the SoCon this year is underrated and would match up very well against the Big Sky is OB and RB. I hope one of the four teams gets a shot as a Big Sky team this playoff season.

At the end of the day, SoCon schools are going to have to win in the post season again. It would also help if SoCon schools were not paired together in the second round.

A lot of it is going to be matchups, too. Assuming Furman makes the playoff field and is not seeded, a round two road game to Holy Cross or William & Mary is going to feel a lot different than a road game to Sacramento State or Weber State.

At some point, SoCon schools are going to have to go out west and get a win on the road.

[Davemeister]

For Furman, the playoffs begin Saturday in Macon. A loss puts our fate in the hands of people you do not want to trust.

[The Jackal]

For Furman, the playoffs begin Saturday in Macon. A loss puts our fate in the hands of people you do not want to trust.

I'd love to just take that decision away from the committee.

I personally think Furman's resume will be strong splitting the last two games of the season. An 8-3 Furman team should be in with two top 20 wins.

However, I've seen what the committee does to SoCon bubble team. They'll find a way to put in a 6-5 MVFC team if given the chance.

[The Jackal]

That said, if the Furman team I saw play UTC shows up in Macon on Saturday, the Bears better buckle up their chinstraps.

[Davemeister]

I personally think Furman's resume will be strong splitting the last two games of the season. An 8-3 Furman team should be in with two top 20 wins.

An 8-3 Furman team will prolly be considered a 7-3 team since one of our W's came against DII competition. Best not leave anything to chance. If we go to the playoffs, we need to go in with a full head of steam - rather than limp in.

[The Jackal]

I personally think Furman's resume will be strong splitting the last two games of the season. An 8-3 Furman team should be in with two top 20 wins.

An 8-3 Furman team will prolly be considered a 7-3 team since one of our W's came against DII competition. Best not leave anything to chance. If we go to the playoffs, we need to go in with a full head of steam - rather than limp in.

I've seen this argued before, but the DII thing is an oddity.

Furman beat North Greenville, a team with a couple dozen scholarship players. NGU doesn't have a great record, but have played four top 25 DII schools and lost by one score to three of them.

Mercer beat Morehead State. A 2-7 non-scholarship FCS team out of the Pioneer League whose only two wins are over NAIA Kentucky Christian and abysmally bad Presbyterian.

Mercer's win "counts" and Furman's does not.

[stonemd]

5 games remain with top 4 teams involved - 32 possible outcomes.

Only 2 scenarios where more than 2 teams tie for best record and are cochamps

3 cochamps each w 1 loss -
Furman and Chatt win out
and Samford beats Mercer and loses to Chatt. These teams 1-1 against the others so goes to least points given up to conference opponents.

4 cochamps each w 2 losses -
Furman loses to Wofford, beats Mercer
Chatt lose to Western, beats Samford
Samford loses to Chatt and Mercer and Mercer loses to Furman, beats Samford.

Furman and Chatt are 2-1 against tied teams
Chatt wins head to head


Most likely the champs will have 1 loss unless Samford wins out

Furmans path to autobid - win out and Samford loses 2

Furman path to cochamps - win out and Samford lose at least 1

I hope I got the analysis right

[stonemd]

All 4 teams can be cochamps
Samford 25 scenarios
Chatt 9 scenarios
Mercer 9 scenarios
Furman 7

All 4 teams can still win the autobid
Samford 16 scenarios
Chatt 9 9 scenarios - win out or the crazy 4way
Mercer 6 scenarios - win out and Chatt loses 2
Furman 1 scenario - win out and Samford loses 2, Chatt loses 1 more

[saltyshaker]

way too complicated. just win and finish 9-2.head to playoffs!

[stonemd]

9-2 and win autobid would make us top team in conference and get a seed

[The Jackal]

All 4 teams can be cochamps
Samford 25 scenarios
Chatt 9 scenarios
Mercer 9 scenarios
Furman 7

All 4 teams can still win the autobid
Samford 16 scenarios
Chatt 9 9 scenarios - win out or the crazy 4way
Mercer 6 scenarios - win out and Chatt loses 2
Furman 1 scenario - win out and Samford loses 2, Chatt loses 1 more

I think the point differential would come in if Furman wins out and UTC beats Samford.

Furman, UTC, and Samford would all be 7-1. They would all be 1-1 against the other two. All three would have beaten everyone else.

[AstroDin]

If the DINS go 8-3, our playoff spot competition IMO:
Idaho - they will finish with only 3 loses
Montana - we need the Griz to take the 4th loss at MonSt
North Dakota - if they beat NDSU in the season finale, they will get a bid at 8-3
Elon - is gonna finish at 8-3
Delaware and Richmond- the CAA is a cluster. One more loss, and Richmond is done. The Spiders still have to play Delaware, and W&M. Delaware could finish with only two losses.
UNH or Rhode Island they play each other this week, the loser is out with 4 losses.
Fordham - Is getting a lot of love due to their QB

[stonemd]

You are right
3 way tie goose to the points tiebreaker
But that is just one scenario out of 32

[The Jackal]

You are right
3 way tie goose to the points tiebreaker
But that is just one scenario out of 32

Honestly, I'm not sure I can remember a SoCon season with 4 teams in a legitimate hunt for the SoCon title with two to play.