Chattanooga 10/29 - Homecoming

[apaladin]

Giving up the big play is a huge concern. We’ve done it every game. Give up 3-4 and it could be a long day.

[gofurman]

"Cliff Notes" Keys to the Game:

1) Doesn't take a crystal ball to know that the Mocs are going to play Run-First on D and dare Furman to throw the ball. Tyler is going to have to throw it successfully AND make some plays with his feet to loosen things up.

2) Our D is going to have to TACKLE better than we have all season, otherwise Ford is going to have a HUGE day.

3) gofurman needs to be very, very, VERY skeered of Chattanooga.

Great point. I am very very VERY skeered. I am

[gofurman]

People talk of. “statement games”.
1. Our first was Samford. The statement there ended with a big fat question mark. And a LOSS. Why let a call affect TWO FULL QUARTERS of play (or lack of play by the D). Huge gashing runs for three TDs. Not rehashing that particular game so much as mentioning we have three shots this year
2. This is statement game number 2. Vs Chatt. Can we win a tough game at home or is Chatt gonna break our hearts …
3. Finally Mercer. If we beat Chatt then this game is different. Would be great and you want them all but MAYBE not necessary. If we lose to Chatt this is a MUST WIN for a playoff shot.

We have no excuses this year (other than if D2 keeps us out at 8-3.. that I will allow) as, for once, the SoCon has three high-ranked teams … and us at 24. We get three shots. Lose all 3 and we can’t complain about no post season.

Cmon guys win!!!!!!!!!

GoFurman

[purplehorse]

Good question about when is the last time we have won a really big game. We laid an egg out last two playoff games (Austin Peay and Wofford). Last playoff win was against Elon (Wofford whipped us the next week). The big wins have been few and far between.

IT IS TIME! We control our own destiny about getting in the playoffs.

[The Jackal]

Giving up the big play is a huge concern. We’ve done it every game. Give up 3-4 and it could be a long day.

It's rare that a team doesn't occasionally give up big plays in a game. Remember, the other team has D1 athletes and coaches trying to win too. The key is to limit them and, ideally, make sure they aren't scoring plays.

Dean Pees, one of the great NFL defensive coordinators over the last 20 years, had this statement last week:

I could really care less about where we end up in total yardage at the end of the year," Pees said. "Could care less. What I want to be is good in the red zone, good on third down, good in takeaways, good in scoring. Those are the important factors.

If you're good in the red zone, you're probably good on the scoring. If you're good in scoring, you're probably going to win a lot of games. Third down is key, too, because you get off the field. Those things are way more important that total yardage.

Furman:

Good in the redzone? 2nd in SoCon in red zone defense. Only Mercer has allowed few red zone touchdowns
Good on third downs? 1st in SoCon in third down defense.
Good on takeaways? 1st in SoCon in takeaways
Good on scoring? 2nd in SoCon in scoring defense

[Affirm]

Ancient history, but in 2000 and in 2006, we beat Chattanooga in Paladin Stadium in OT, one point win and six point win. Hoping we don’t have to go into overtime day after tomorrow. If we do have to (get to?), hoping we can prevail.

[AllTimeFU]

Some interesting analysis from Milktruck over on that Mocs message board.

Doing a little data crunching this morning...per Mr. Kenneth Massey (a Carson Newman Professor BTW)

Using just the conference games and looking at the spread between Points For/Points Against

AVERAGE SPREAD

Mocs 21.8 points
Furple 12.4

AVERAGE SPREAD (EXCLUDING LOSSES)

Mocs 21.8
Furple 17.25 (removing a 34-27 loss to Sammy)

DEFENSE
So far the Mocs have faced the # 2, #5, # 8 and #9 point scoring teams in the league for an average of 6.0 (-1.0) and have given up only 12.5 points per game
So far Furple has faced the #1, #5, #6, #7 and #8 point scoring teams in the league for an average of 5.4 (+0.6) and have given up 20.2 points per game
Remove their loss to #1 and the teams they faced average 6.5(-1.5) but still gave up 16.75 points per game

OFFENSE
So far the Mocs have faced the #2, #6, #7, and #9 point allowing teams in the league for an average place of 6.0 (-1.0) again and the Mocs averaged 34.3 per game
So far Furple has faced #4, #5, #7, #8, and #9 point allowing teams in the league for an average place of 6.6 (-1.6) and Furple has averaged 32.6 points of offense
Remove their loss to #5 and the teams they faced averaged 7.0 (-2.0) place and furple has averaged 34.0 points

So what does all this mean...Absolutely nothing....However, when looking at the teams both have played, it is pretty even as far as the level of offense and defense production. Saying they have faced very similar competition. At the end of the season after everybody plays everyone the number will be 5.0 for both sides... Mocs have a -2.0 total and Furple has a -1.0 total...meaning the Mocs have faced an overall slightly less talented group than Furple (Sammy Skews it a bit). Remove Sammy and Furple is at -3.5...so Obviously Sammy is the Best team they played and they lost to them....But...based on the data, competition has been similar and the Mocs have outscored their opponents by 21.8 while Furple has outscored their by 12.4....... Advantage Mocs by 9.4...give furple a +3 for being at home...MOCS by 6. Final Score 27-21.

[The Jackal]

Generally speaking, you can make the argument that the teams are pretty even. Furman has the slightly better offense. UTC has the slightly better defense.

Furman's schedule has been slightly tougher.
Furman looked better against a ranked FBS opponent
There are two common opponents - VMI and ETSU. Furman beat both (on the road, incidentally) by bigger point margins than UTC did.

UTC is a good team. Don't get me wrong. So are we.

Surprisingly, this is only UTC's 4th road game. Furman has already played 5 road games

[FUBeAR]

Some interesting analysis from Milktruck over on that Mocs message board.

Doing a little data crunching this morning...

Blah, blah, blah…

Advantage Mocs by 9.4...give furple a +3 for being at home...MOCS by 6. Final Score 27-21.

MilkTruck = MathFail

[AstroDin]

All the STAT stuff makes me wonder about the Special Teams comparison.
The one area of play for Furman that has performed better week to week is special teams.

[The Jackal]

All the STAT stuff makes me wonder about the Special Teams comparison.
The one area of play for Furman that has performed better week to week is special teams.

I think Furman has the edge in special teams, especially in the kicking and return game.

Watch kickoffs. UTC doesn't kick many touchbacks and Furman has Wayne Anderson and Kendall Thomas returning kicks.

This may be a game where field position becomes critical. I would expect a lot of conservative calls on fourth down - trying to pin the opponent deep.

[AstroDin]

Wayne Anderson does so many things well on special teams. If UTC leaves a seam open to Anderson or KT - they're not going to catch them.

Also, our punt returns have improved. I think Coach Wright in his press conference said the Mocs punt coverage was a concern.

[AstroDin]

Let's also not forget - Furman isn't lacking in offensive weapons…

[FUBeAR]

NOTE - This (below) is/was written for a broader audience than typically ‘reside’ here. Some of the commentary within is specifically curated & ‘advantaged’ in such a way as to really ‘reach’ that non-UFFP audience, particularly those who are ‘big fans’ of FUBeAR’s work.


No one under 18 should be allowed to attend this game. It is going to be a bloody, bloody war that should carry a Hard R rating. R is for “Run the dang ball” and both of these Teams do. And they do it well. Furman runs it a bit better than Chatt and they also both defend it well. Chatt defends the run a little bit better than FU. Both have very heady & talented QB’s who can throw the ball and can run as needed. We could run down each unit and each stat, but the bottom line is that these are 2 evenly matched Teams, that should both be ranked in the FCS Top 10. Turnovers will matter, but those have more random occurrences than we like to admit to ourselves. And, although Coach Wright already started whining at his weekly press conference about the Refs always being way too mean to his poor victimized & innocent Mocs when they play in Paladin Stadium, that kinda BS better fall on newly-deafened SoCon Officials’ ears after their early-season, job-costing debacle there. So we’ll assume fair & balanced officiating and a wash on turnovers. But that leaves 2 things - Special Teams. Chatt’s ST’s performed flawlessly against Mercer, but that is out of character for them - so odds are against a 2nd consecutive flawless performance. Furman has the edge here. And the game is at FU’s Home with FUBeAR serving as an Honorary Captain … So… +3 points for Special Teams edge, +3 points for Home Field Advantage, and +1 for the FUBeAR effect.

Final Score: Furman 24 - Chattanooga 17

[Davemeister]

Anything and everything this 2022 Team has got, NOW is the time to roll it out!

That "complete game" CCH talks about needs to happen Saturday.

Play like there's no tomorrow, Boys, cause if you don't - there probably won't be.