Samford at ETSU

[FUBeAR]

If Wofford beats PC but loses to Western I would think a 6-4 FU team (6-2 in conference) would get in the playoffs over a 7-4 Wofford Team (5-3 in conference) and we beat them head-to-head...and we would have won 4 in a row with good losses. If ETSU beats Sammy (unlikely) Sammy would be 6-5 (assuming they beat Citadel) and 5-3 in conference. We would get in playoffs before Sammy. Unlikely but I still think POSSIBLE for FU to get in playoffs.

It seems to me that many folks are thinking that the Playoff Selection Committee has or will have a more or less fixed number of SoCon Teams that will receive At Large bids. While I could be wrong and it may have been ‘like that’ in prior years, I’m just not seeing that way this year.

If we assume the ‘Dins win out, I think we will be stacking up our 6-4/3 FCS losses resume against the rest of the non-autobid field. So, yes we will be vying against Wofford, Samford, ETSU, and, possibly, Chatt (if they beat Mercer & especially, if they beat the Cocks).

ALL of the FCS “power conferences,” - The CAA, the Big Sky, the Southland, and the MVFC (with the exception of NDSU) are in complete turmoil this year. With the possible exception of the OVC (JaxSt & SEMO), I think the other FCS Conferences are Auto-bid only (Patriot, NEC, Big South, PFL) Conferences. I don’t see a bid going to a SWAC Team or to FAMU (assuming A&T wins out...as they should).

I also think the Committee is going to ‘be kind’ and view FU as, essentially, a 7-4 Team with a tacit win over an avg. nameless opponent credited to the good side of the ledger, so that FU will be on equal footing with other Teams that are 3 FCS loss Teams in the ‘power conferences.’

So...14 spots...let’s look at the contendah’s...
1) UC Davis - will probably finish with 0 or 1 FCS loss & an FBS win; may win the Big Sky
2) EWU - will probably finish with 1 or 2 FCS losses; may win the Big Sky
3) WeberSt - will probably finish with 1 or 2 FCS losses; could win or tie for the Big Sky
4) IdahoSt - will probably finish with 1 or 2 FCS losses; could win or tie for the Big Sky
5) PortlandSt - could finish with 3 FCS losses, but unlikely. Also has 2 FBS losses
6) Delaware - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; could win CAA
7) Maine - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; 4 is likely; has FBS win; could win CAA
8) Elon - could finish with 1-3 FCS losses; could win CAA
9) JMU - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; could win CAA
10) Stony Brook - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; could win CAA
11) Towson - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; could CAA
12) Rhode Island - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses
13) North Dakota (IND.) - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses
14) SDakSt - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; 2 is likely
15) Northern Iowa - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; 3 is likely
16) Western Ill- could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; 3 is likely
17) IndianaSt - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; 4-5 is likely
18) IllinoisSt - could finish with 4-6 FCS losses and an FBS win; 3 of 4 losses to “Top Teams”
19) JaxSt - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; 2-3 is likely; could win OVC
20) SEMO - could finish with 1-3 FCS losses; 1 is likely; could win OVC
21) ETSU - could finish with 1-2 FCS losses; 2 is likely; could win SoCon
22) Wofford - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; 2 is likely; could win SoCon
23) Samford - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; 3 is likely; could win SoCon
24) Furman - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; 3 is likely (and assumed); could win SoCon
25) Chattanooga - could finish with 3-4 FCS losses; 3 is most likely
26) McNeeseSt - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; could win Southland
27) NichollsSt - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; 2 most likely; has FBS win; could win Southland
28) Incarnate Word - could finish with 2-3 FCS losses; could win Southland
29) Abilene Christian - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses
30) CentArk - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; could win Southland
31) Lamar - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; could win Southland (I think)

Take out 5 Autobids & we are left with 26 Teams for 14 spots.

Do we see 11 or 12 on this list that FU is going to ‘beat out’ in the eyes of the Commitee, once all the games have been played? I think I see about 11-12 “locks”...which means there MIGHT be 1-2 ‘open slots’ for 13 Teams once the games are played...Hey, we only need 1!!

[gofurman]

All of this talk is encouraging. Another question for us; if Furman does actually get a bid, will we be willing to step up with the money to get a home game?

Flag, I don't think it will matter this year but your point is a GREAT one. One way to increase football interest is to have home playoff games. So far our administration has NOT STEPPED UP in this regard.
2017 - Elon outbid us.
2013 - SC STATE outbid us !! They can't keep the lights on at SC State
2006 - Montana State outbid us

I believe in Hendrix and our team ... I love our new facilities etc. what needs to change is attendance AND bids for home playoff games

Please correct me if I am wrong.

Weren't we outbid all three of our last three playoff showings ?. (17, 13, 06)?

[FUBeAR]

If Wofford beats PC but loses to Western I would think a 6-4 FU team (6-2 in conference) would get in the playoffs over a 7-4 Wofford Team (5-3 in conference) and we beat them head-to-head...and we would have won 4 in a row with good losses. If ETSU beats Sammy (unlikely) Sammy would be 6-5 (assuming they beat Citadel) and 5-3 in conference. We would get in playoffs before Sammy. Unlikely but I still think POSSIBLE for FU to get in playoffs.

It seems to me that many folks are thinking that the Playoff Selection Committee has or will have a more or less fixed number of SoCon Teams that will receive At Large bids. While I could be wrong and it may have been ‘like that’ in prior years, I’m just not seeing that way this year.

If we assume the ‘Dins win out, I think we will be stacking up our 6-4/3 FCS losses resume against the rest of the non-autobid field. So, yes we will be vying against Wofford, Samford, ETSU, and, possibly, Chatt (if they beat Mercer & especially, if they beat the Cocks).

ALL of the FCS “power conferences,” - The CAA, the Big Sky, the Southland, and the MVFC (with the exception of NDSU) are in complete turmoil this year. With the possible exception of the OVC (JaxSt & SEMO), I think the other FCS Conferences are Auto-bid only (Patriot, NEC, Big South, PFL) Conferences. I don’t see a bid going to a SWAC Team or to FAMU (assuming A&T wins out...as they should).

I also think the Committee is going to ‘be kind’ and view FU as, essentially, a 7-4 Team with a tacit win over an avg. nameless opponent credited to the good side of the ledger, so that FU will be on equal footing with other Teams that are 3 FCS loss Teams in the ‘power conferences.’

So...14 spots...let’s look at the contendah’s...
1) UC Davis - will probably finish with 0 or 1 FCS loss & an FBS win; may win the Big Sky
2) EWU - will probably finish with 1 or 2 FCS losses; may win the Big Sky
3) WeberSt - will probably finish with 1 or 2 FCS losses; could win or tie for the Big Sky
4) IdahoSt - will probably finish with 1 or 2 FCS losses; could win or tie for the Big Sky
5) PortlandSt - could finish with 3 FCS losses, but unlikely. Also has 2 FBS losses
6) Delaware - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; could win CAA
7) Maine - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; 4 is likely; has FBS win; could win CAA
8) Elon - could finish with 1-3 FCS losses; could win CAA
9) JMU - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; could win CAA
10) Stony Brook - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; could win CAA
11) Towson - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; could CAA
12) Rhode Island - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses
13) North Dakota (IND.) - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses
14) SDakSt - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; 2 is likely
15) Northern Iowa - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; 3 is likely
16) Western Ill- could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; 3 is likely
17) IndianaSt - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; 4-5 is likely
18) IllinoisSt - could finish with 4-6 FCS losses and an FBS win; 3 of 4 losses to “Top Teams”
19) JaxSt - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; 2-3 is likely; could win OVC
20) SEMO - could finish with 1-3 FCS losses; 1 is likely; could win OVC
21) ETSU - could finish with 1-2 FCS losses; 2 is likely; could win SoCon
22) Wofford - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; 2 is likely; could win SoCon
23) Samford - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; 3 is likely; could win SoCon
24) Furman - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; 3 is likely (and assumed); could win SoCon
25) Chattanooga - could finish with 3-4 FCS losses; 3 is most likely
26) McNeeseSt - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; could win Southland
27) NichollsSt - could finish with 2-4 FCS losses; 2 most likely; has FBS win; could win Southland
28) Incarnate Word - could finish with 2-3 FCS losses; could win Southland
29) Abilene Christian - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses
30) CentArk - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; could win Southland
31) Lamar - could finish with 3-5 FCS losses; could win Southland (I think)

Take out 5 Autobids & we are left with 26 Teams for 14 spots.

Do we see 11 or 12 on this list that FU is going to ‘beat out’ in the eyes of the Commitee, once all the games have been played? I think I see about 11-12 “locks”...which means there MIGHT be 1-2 ‘open slots’ for 13 Teams once the games are played...Hey, we only need 1!!

Yes...self-quoting my own post...because I baked this cake a little further & have come up with the FUBeAR Field based on this selection methodology. I don’t have FU in it , but I do have Wofford, Samford, and ETSU. Obviously, that could change. BTW - Samford & Stony Brook were my ‘last 2 in.’ Hard to say which Teams were my ‘last ones out,’ but I think Maine, Furman, Illinois State, and Incarnate Word were probably the last 4.

FUBeAR Field
Kennesaw (could be Monmouth; doubtful, but, if so, KSU would replace Stony Brook)
Sacred Heart (could be Duquesne, Central Connecticut, or (maybe) Saint Francis - 1 only)
Colgate
San Diego (could be Marist or Stetson - 1 only)
UC Davis
EWU
Weber State
Idaho State
Delaware
Elon
JMU
Towson
Stony Brook
NDSU
S Dak St
N Iowa
Western Illinois
Jax State
SEMO
ETSU
Wofford
Samford
McNeese
Nicholls St

This may rile some folks, but what sux for me as a Furman Fan & a Mercer Fan is that I know Furman is better than Wofford and ETSU and I know Mercer is better than Samford and ETSU. QB injuries/issues were really the downfall for both those Teams in 2018. I hate QB’s...except when I love them, but, mostly, I hate them.

[The Jackal]

Good news, I guess, is a number of the teams you identified are already on the bubble as 4 loss teams or a potential second team from ordinary 1 bid conferences.

While it would scuttle Furman's push for an autobid, I'd like to see Wofford take another loss. It'd be hard to pass up Furman if we were standing in sole possession of 2nd place in the SoCon.

[FUBeAR]

Good news, I guess, is a number of the teams you identified are already on the bubble as 4 loss teams or a potential second team from ordinary 1 bid conferences.

While it would scuttle Furman's push for an autobid, I'd like to see Wofford take another loss. It'd be hard to pass up Furman if we were standing in sole possession of 2nd place in the SoCon.

I just don’t think that’s going to matter. Here’s an example - Chatt could lose to Mercer & finish as low as 5th in the SoCon and if they upset the Cocks (it’s happened before, y’know), do you think the Committee would pass over a 7-4 Team that is coming off a P5 win? I think it’s gonna be all about number & quality of wins/losses with very little regard to Conference finish because so many Conferences are going to be a muddled mess of tie-breaker scenarios.

If I were them, that’s the way I would do it, but I AM a Bear of little brain.

[The Jackal]

Good news, I guess, is a number of the teams you identified are already on the bubble as 4 loss teams or a potential second team from ordinary 1 bid conferences.

While it would scuttle Furman's push for an autobid, I'd like to see Wofford take another loss. It'd be hard to pass up Furman if we were standing in sole possession of 2nd place in the SoCon.

I just don’t think that’s going to matter. Here’s an example - Chatt could lose to Mercer & finish as low as 5th in the SoCon and if they upset the Cocks (it’s happened before, y’know), do you think the Committee would pass over a 7-4 Team that is coming off a P5 win? I think it’s gonna be all about number & quality of wins/losses with very little regard to Conference finish because so many Conferences are going to be a muddled mess of tie-breaker scenarios.

If I were them, that’s the way I would do it, but I AM a Bear of little brain.

I personally think we lost our playoff shot with a terrible fourth quarter against ETSU. Do anything other than have a complete meltdown for 15 minutes and we are probably playing postseason ball.

As of now, the best thing Furman can do is try their best to notch convincing wins over VMI and Mercer and hope the rest of the FCS continues its current trend of muddledness.

[Affirm]

I feel fortunate to have access to the kind of analysis and info as in this thread. NEVER available in local or national newspapers sports sections, nor any national websites from any FU or SoCon context. I’m serious. Thanks to FUBeAR and all the rest of you.

[apaladin]

affirm, If you haven't already, check out www.anygivensaturday.com This a great site for all FCS fans. Covers the whole country and there is plenty of FU/SoCon stuff there. Just click on "FCS discussion" thread.

[FUBeAR]

affirm, If you haven't already, check out www.anygivensaturday.com This a great site for all FCS fans. Covers the whole country and there is plenty of FU/SoCon stuff there. Just click on "FCS discussion" thread.

FYI - there’s some anti-Furman sentiment on AGS right now because some FU peeps have been bravely (and, somewhat relentlessly) taking the “We should be in the Playoffs (if we win out)” meassage to the masses...and also to the Members of the Playoff Selection Committee, who, I’m sure, will each swear that they never read FCS Football Message Boards...but they ALL do.

FUBeAR agrees with the approach, but isn’t ‘engaging’ this time; so...more power to those FU Peeps who are!

If you head over there as a “newbie,” don’t let the current negative FU vibe dissuade you. It’ll pass. Everybody LOVES Furman!!

[gofurman]

I'll say again though. Playoffs or not. Hendrix got us playoffs in first year here. And we are one game of help and two wins of our own from being. SoCon champs in second year !

If we could win out and Samfird beats ETSU our players get SoCon champ rings... And 2018 goes on the field house as a champion year !!!

Think about that. I would be excited about that. Tremendously even without a playoff

Playoffs in year one of CCH tenure. SoCon champs in year two ? Phenomenal we can even talk,about that as possible. When Hendrix arrived two years ago we had 3 wins the prior yr.

That's amazing. Especially when you consider his forte is OL which takes 3/4 years to get his recruits on the OL. YES, Neely is at Center and McKinney is playing sims but basically he is coaching up Fowlers OL recruits and making us better. AND they are doing great ! No offense at all to our OL. they have improved tremendously.

But Just think when it's Hendrix OL recruits and his coaching (he appears to want a slightly different OL type)

[Affirm]

affirm, If you haven't already, check out www.anygivensaturday.com This a great site for all FCS fans. Covers the whole country and there is plenty of FU/SoCon stuff there. Just click on "FCS discussion" thread.

Thanks. Minimally aware of that site, but have not gone except when directed to an occasional article. Good to be reminded.

[The Jackal]

affirm, If you haven't already, check out www.anygivensaturday.com This a great site for all FCS fans. Covers the whole country and there is plenty of FU/SoCon stuff there. Just click on "FCS discussion" thread.

FYI - there’s some anti-Furman sentiment on AGS right now because some FU peeps have been bravely (and, somewhat relentlessly) taking the “We should be in the Playoffs (if we win out)” meassage to the masses...and also to the Members of the Playoff Selection Committee, who, I’m sure, will each swear that they never read FCS Football Message Boards...but they ALL do.

FUBeAR agrees with the approach, but isn’t ‘engaging’ this time; so...more power to those FU Peeps who are!

If you head over there as a “newbie,” don’t let the current negative FU vibe dissuade you. It’ll pass. Everybody LOVES Furman!!

Except that one Citadel guy.