DOWN THE STRETCH

[apaladin]

Hard to believe we are heading down the stretch with only 4 games left. Right now the conference is split between the haves and have nots. The top 4 teams have at least 3 wins. The bottom 5 teams have at least 3 losses. Here is a look at what’s left and my predictions which of course mean nothing:

AT VMI- currently 1-5 0-3 only team in the SoCon without a conference win. In SoCon play they are averaging 17 ppg and giving up 41 ppg, Their closest SoCon loss was 38-17 at WCU. Their only W was against a now 0-6 Bucknell team. They are a 50/50 run/pass team. They were down to their 3rd QB Saturday against UTC. This will be the second game in a row FU will be facing a team that was embarrassed the previous week. AP prediction: FU 35-31.

CHATTANOOGA- currently 5-1 3-0 one of 3 undefeated teams in league play. In SoCon play they are averaging 32 ppg and giving up only 9.7 ppg. Their closest SoCon win was 24-16 at ETSU. UTC is a 60-40 run/pass team. Their QB completes almost 63% of his passes. FU gets UTC after their big game with MU. Don’t know if that will be good or not. AP prediction: UTC 34-13.

AT MERCER- currently 6-1 4-0 only team with 4 conference wins. In SoCon play they are averagng 41 ppg and giving up 11.5 which is the best scoring margin in the league. Their closest SoCon win was 17-0 vs. Citadel. Mercer is a 57-43 run/pass team. Their QB completes 67% of his passes and has thrown 21 td passes. Both FU and MU will be coming off bye weeks for this game. AP prediction: MU 41-17

WOFFORD currently 1-6 1-3 got their first win in their last 17 games Saturday. In SoCon play they are averaging 13 ppg and giving up 29.5 ppg. WC is a 54-46 run/pass team. Their QB completes 57% of his passes. I look for WC to improve more as the season winds down under their new HC. Not sure but FU may have reached their peak way too early but still think they will be good enough to take care of the Tearriers. AP prediction: FU 27-21

If the above predictions come true that will leave a FU at 7-4 5-3 with no playoff bid again. In the middle of the SoCon again. Hoping for better but after watching the debacle on Saturday I am afraid this is best case scenario.

[FUBeAR]

Not gonna have President Davis open a plagiarism investigation into AP just yet, but FUBeAR similarly broke down and published elsewhere the current state of the SoCon before he turned in Sat. night…

GOT’s
1. Mercer (4-0, 6-1 (FBS P5 SEC loss))
2. Furman (3-1, 5-2 (#4 in FBS P5 ACC loss))
3. Chattanooga (3-0, 5-1 (#24 in FBS P5 B1G loss))
4. Samford (3-0, 5-1 (#1 in FBS P5 SEC loss))
———————————————
NOT’s
5. ETSU (1-4, 3-4)
6. WCU (1-3, 3-4)
7. Wofford (1-3, 1-6)
8. CIT (1-3, 1-5)
9. VMI (0-3, 1-5)

…and did a little more optimistic (no surprise there, huh?) analysis of the 4 GOT’S Playoffs situations…

FUBeAR’s POWER RANKINGS
This week brought about some clear delineation in the SoCon ranks for FUBeAR.

Pretty clear to see who are the GOT’s and who are the NOT’s in the SoCon this season. Now, if the GOT’s will only lose to other GOT’s the rest of the way, the SoCon SHOULD get 4 Teams in the Playoffs.

Furman, due to playing a D2 Team and already having a SoCon-Referee-assisted-loss to Samford, can only lose to 1 more GOT - either Mercer OR Chatt, but not both, in order to make the Playoffs…unless, a number of the GOT’s, including Furman, end up tied and somehow Furman would end up with the AQ in the tiebreaker ciphering.

Samford only has 2 more GOT’s to play (Mercer & Chatt). So, given no future losses to NOT’s, the Bullpups are already a near-lock for the Playoffs @ no worse than 8-3…even if they lose to Mercer & Chatt. Better offer Coach Hatcher a new contract THIS WEEK!

Mercer & Chatt, who go to war with one another this week, could (and should) make the playoffs @ 7-4 if either lost to all 3 remaining GOT’s, but the winner of this week’s matchup, given no future losses to NOT’s, is pretty much punching their playoff ticket at no worse than 8-3.

[The Jackal]

As I see it, Furman needs to beat VMI, Wofford, and at least split UTC/Mercer.

We cannot afford one of those late season trip ups against a team we should beat.

[tim]

Not seeing a down the stretch team. I'm seeing a team that is struggling with fundamentals. Apparently getting ahead of Mercer or Chatt late in the game and running them out of timeouts won't do it. We may just stop the clock ourselves

[Affirm]

We may not have >1 more win. 6-5.

[FU3]

I think 8-3 is about right. Predictions from folks who thought we had a good chance of losing to NGU and were going to be embarrassed by Clemson should be taken with a grain of salt.

[gman84]

The glass is half empty peeps will never change and they will thump their chests when we don't win and remind us how foolish we can be. After 60 years of life, I have learned to savor the great moments and put the down moments in my rear view mirror. I know this season has been perplexing at times. But, we are 5-2. We control our own destiny at this point, and the sun did rise this morning. Let's win them all!

[Affirm]

I will be amazed if we beat Mercer or Chattanooga.
I will not be surprised if we lose to VMI or Wofford.
If we lose, or win, all of our next 4 games, the sun will rise on November 20, and a whole lot of people will NOT know what Furman did in the final 5 regular season games.
Whatever happens, I will be interested.
Even so, it’s only football.

[Davemeister]

How do we close out the season?

9-2? Step outside and look for Signs in the sky.

8-3? Possible, but not likely.

7-4? The most likely outcome.

6-5? Possible, but not likely.

5-6? Let's not even think about it.

[FU3]

I will be amazed if we beat Mercer or Chattanooga.
I will not be surprised if we lose to VMI or Wofford.
If we lose, or win, all of our next 4 games, the sun will rise on November 20, and a whole lot of people will NOT know what Furman did in the final 5 regular season games.
Whatever happens, I will be interested.
Even so, it’s only football.

Just curious, on what factors are you basing your predictions ?Can’t imagine given your (often) stated views about the irrelevance of Furman football you are burning up an ESPN+ subscription viewing their equally irrelevant competition.

[Furmanoid]

I will be amazed if we beat Mercer or Chattanooga.
I will not be surprised if we lose to VMI or Wofford.
If we lose, or win, all of our next 4 games, the sun will rise on November 20, and a whole lot of people will NOT know what Furman did in the final 5 regular season games.
Whatever happens, I will be interested.
Even so, it’s only football.

Just curious, on what factors are you basing your predictions ?Can’t imagine given your (often) stated views about the irrelevance of Furman football you are burning up an ESPN+ subscription viewing their equally irrelevant competition.

He just said he would be amazed, that’s all. “Amazed” might be a little strong, but we certainly wouldn’t be favorites in either game. Why would you expect us to beat either one? I have a FEELING we’ll beat one of them, but I certainly can’t back it up with reason.

[The Jackal]

I will be amazed if we beat Mercer or Chattanooga.
I will not be surprised if we lose to VMI or Wofford.
If we lose, or win, all of our next 4 games, the sun will rise on November 20, and a whole lot of people will NOT know what Furman did in the final 5 regular season games.
Whatever happens, I will be interested.
Even so, it’s only football.

Just curious, on what factors are you basing your predictions ?Can’t imagine given your (often) stated views about the irrelevance of Furman football you are burning up an ESPN+ subscription viewing their equally irrelevant competition.

He just said he would be amazed, that’s all. “Amazed” might be a little strong, but we certainly wouldn’t be favorites in either game. Why would you expect us to beat either one? I have a FEELING we’ll beat one of them, but I certainly can’t back it up with reason.

I think everyone might be giving UTC more credit than they've earned to this point.

To this point, UTC's best win is a road win against ETSU, where they had to come back in the 4th quarter.

[AllTimeFU]

We will know a lot more after this week and next.

[Furmanoid]

I will be amazed if we beat Mercer or Chattanooga.
I will not be surprised if we lose to VMI or Wofford.
If we lose, or win, all of our next 4 games, the sun will rise on November 20, and a whole lot of people will NOT know what Furman did in the final 5 regular season games.
Whatever happens, I will be interested.
Even so, it’s only football.

Just curious, on what factors are you basing your predictions ?Can’t imagine given your (often) stated views about the irrelevance of Furman football you are burning up an ESPN+ subscription viewing their equally irrelevant competition.

He just said he would be amazed, that’s all. “Amazed” might be a little strong, but we certainly wouldn’t be favorites in either game. Why would you expect us to beat either one? I have a FEELING we’ll beat one of them, but I certainly can’t back it up with reason.

I think everyone might be giving UTC more credit than they've earned to this point.

To this point, UTC's best win is a road win against ETSU, where they had to come back in the 4th quarter.

UTC is beating bad teams pretty badly. We struggle with bad teams. So you have to give the edge to UTC. If we are who we want to be, sure, we beat them. But at this point there isn’t much evidence to point that way.

[Affirm]

I will be amazed if we beat Mercer or Chattanooga.
I will not be surprised if we lose to VMI or Wofford.
If we lose, or win, all of our next 4 games, the sun will rise on November 20, and a whole lot of people will NOT know what Furman did in the final 5 regular season games.
Whatever happens, I will be interested.
Even so, it’s only football.

Just curious, on what factors are you basing your predictions ?Can’t imagine given your (often) stated views about the irrelevance of Furman football you are burning up an ESPN+ subscription viewing their equally irrelevant competition.

Sorry you are offended or puzzled. My predictions are based on in-person observation at 2 FU 2022 home games , plus casual* observation of scores, opponents, reports, and events related to all Furman opponents this season.
*”Casual*” = “more casual” than maybe 90% of other regular UFFP football posters, but “less casual” than at least 90% of all living FU alumni.