Pre-Season Rankings

[Affirm]

This discussion should probably matriculate over to the '22 Schedule thread, but I'll deposit my thougts here...

Looking at Austin Peay's OOC/FBS schedule, they have the following upcoming games-

2022- Alabama, Western KY
2023 - Tennessee
2024 - Georgia Tech(and Chatty)
2025 - Georgia and Middle Tenn St
2026 - Vanderbilt and NDSU

Personally I would LOVE this schedule.

Poo-poo APSU if you want, but the OVC has been ranked alongside the SoCon for several seasons, and the Gov'ners kicked the crap out of us last time we met. They are no slouch, yet their schedulde is packed with Power 5 teams- some exciting top-5 competition as well as some possible wins. Add to that the best program in FCS, and I'd say we need to take notes from their AD or whoever is doing their scheduling.

I definitely will not poo-poo that schedule.
Alabama, WKU, UT, GT, UGA, MTSU, VU. Barely have to travel for great FBS opponents for 5 consecutive years. Plus NDSU. Wow. Ole Miss, Pitt, Cincinnati, Georgia, and Cincinnati (again) already were on their OOC schedules of the most recent previous 5-year span. Yes, we need to take notes from their AD or whoever.

[The Jackal]

i haven't really looked but my recollection is that ETSU lost a bunch of talent....

Off the top of my head, they lost their star OT and RB. I think their middle linebacker was old enough to collect social security, so I believe he's gone as well.

Might be posted elsewhere bUt biggest loss was Quay Holmes all SoCon RB declared for NFL draft!! I don’t see that he was drafted. Regardless good for us

- I still wish we had a schedule that allowed room for an at large bid. We basically have to win the conference. People say “that’s fine”. And I want to win conference. But I’ll always take two playoff opportunities over one. Ask Mercer from last year !!

Last season, Mercer scheduled only 10 games. In addition, they scheduled Point and Alabama. That schedule requires you to essentially beat Alabama or win the SoCon. There was incredibly little wiggle room.

Furman has scheduled 11 games. Even assuming a steep climb against Clemson and NGU "not counting," Furman will need to win 7 games of the remaining 9 to have a pretty good shot at the playoffs.

Not quite the same situation, but if we can't do that, we don't deserve to be in the post season anyway.

Valid point about the D2 AND the 10 games for Mercer Jackal. You are right. Still, I wish we had Tennessee Tech again (opposed to NGU asjust making the playoffs is worth some PR and an extra week or so of practice which is good for team and QB learning etc

I think Point is NAIA.

Ideally, you want two winnable FCS out of conference games. Furman typically tries to schedule that. They weren't able to swing it this season. It happens.

If FUBeAR recalls correctly (too lazy to confirm his recollection), weren’t you calling for everyone from Mercer University’s President to their stadium Sno-Cone vendor to be fired for their scheduling issues last season?

Not that FUBeAR, necessarily, disagreed with you (except the Prez - he’s a Keeper…really don’t like that sno-cone guy tho). Just seems like one of those sauce/goose/gander kinda things, y’know.


*NAIA, D2, D3, or anything not D1 FBS or FCS doesn’t matter to the Playoff Selection Committee. To them, a non-D1 FBS/FCS game just didn’t happen. A D1 FBS loss, regardless of P5 SEC or G5 lower-tier carries similar weight (none)…just didn’t happen…regardless of the score. So, to the Committee, Mercer was 6-2 last year…Dammit sno-cone man!!!

You are well aware they are not the same situation. Mercer's scheduling certainly seemed like an unforced error.

First, I'm not sure why an FCS would schedule only 10 games. Even if you have to play a local high school, play 11. That's not a Mercer thing, though. If Furman scheduled only 10 games, they'd hear it from me too.

Second, Mercer had a decent opponent to open the season in Charleston Southern, a game that was canceled for whatever reason. Mercer then replaced CSU with Point on the schedule.

I've never seen an explanation for why the CSU game was canceled. It was on the schedule in the summer, and then it wasn't. My only supposition is that Mercer felt it had too many road games and was struggling to find an 11th opponent. I think the CSU game was the road leg of a home and home where the home leg was a COVID casualty in 2020.

As a SoCon fan, it was disappointing to see one of the league's better teams essentially out of the playoff conversation largely because of their schedule.

[FUBeAR]

i haven't really looked but my recollection is that ETSU lost a bunch of talent....

Off the top of my head, they lost their star OT and RB. I think their middle linebacker was old enough to collect social security, so I believe he's gone as well.

Might be posted elsewhere bUt biggest loss was Quay Holmes all SoCon RB declared for NFL draft!! I don’t see that he was drafted. Regardless good for us

- I still wish we had a schedule that allowed room for an at large bid. We basically have to win the conference. People say “that’s fine”. And I want to win conference. But I’ll always take two playoff opportunities over one. Ask Mercer from last year !!

Last season, Mercer scheduled only 10 games. In addition, they scheduled Point and Alabama. That schedule requires you to essentially beat Alabama or win the SoCon. There was incredibly little wiggle room.

Furman has scheduled 11 games. Even assuming a steep climb against Clemson and NGU "not counting," Furman will need to win 7 games of the remaining 9 to have a pretty good shot at the playoffs.

Not quite the same situation, but if we can't do that, we don't deserve to be in the post season anyway.

Valid point about the D2 AND the 10 games for Mercer Jackal. You are right. Still, I wish we had Tennessee Tech again (opposed to NGU asjust making the playoffs is worth some PR and an extra week or so of practice which is good for team and QB learning etc

I think Point is NAIA.

Ideally, you want two winnable FCS out of conference games. Furman typically tries to schedule that. They weren't able to swing it this season. It happens.

If FUBeAR recalls correctly (too lazy to confirm his recollection), weren’t you calling for everyone from Mercer University’s President to their stadium Sno-Cone vendor to be fired for their scheduling issues last season?

Not that FUBeAR, necessarily, disagreed with you (except the Prez - he’s a Keeper…really don’t like that sno-cone guy tho). Just seems like one of those sauce/goose/gander kinda things, y’know.


*NAIA, D2, D3, or anything not D1 FBS or FCS doesn’t matter to the Playoff Selection Committee. To them, a non-D1 FBS/FCS game just didn’t happen. A D1 FBS loss, regardless of P5 SEC or G5 lower-tier carries similar weight (none)…just didn’t happen…regardless of the score. So, to the Committee, Mercer was 6-2 last year…Dammit sno-cone man!!!

You are well aware they are not the same situation. Mercer's scheduling certainly seemed like an unforced error.

First, I'm not sure why an FCS would schedule only 10 games. Even if you have to play a local high school, play 11. That's not a Mercer thing, though. If Furman scheduled only 10 games, they'd hear it from me too.

Second, Mercer had a decent opponent to open the season in Charleston Southern, a game that was canceled for whatever reason. Mercer then replaced CSU with Point on the schedule.

I've never seen an explanation for why the CSU game was canceled. It was on the schedule in the summer, and then it wasn't. My only supposition is that Mercer felt it had too many road games and was struggling to find an 11th opponent. I think the CSU game was the road leg of a home and home where the home leg was a COVID casualty in 2020.

As a SoCon fan, it was disappointing to see one of the league's better teams essentially out of the playoff conversation largely because of their schedule.

Ah…so the gander sauce has a can of cream of mushroom soup added. Got it.

And the Sno-Cone guy - DEFINITELY FIRED…along with a few others, perhaps.

A few comments…

* Along with Mercer, Sam Houston played 10 regular season games last season, as did Davidson, Charleston Southern, Robert Morris, Howard, Youngstown State, Long Island University, Duquesne, St. Thomas, Dayton, Marist, Georgetown, and the entire 8 Team Ivy League. Further, Incarnate Word, Southeastern Louisiana, Houston Baptist, McNeese, Nicholls, and Northwestern State all played 11 games, but they played 3 of one another 2x in order to get to 11. FUBeAR will get you the phone numbers for all 27 of their AD’s if you want to give them some of that ‘what for’ you would have given to Furman’s…if it weren’t for that can of cream of mushroom soup…and all. Coming off Spring Football & 2021 Conference realignments, it wasn’t ‘zactly a “normal” year…as continues into 2022.

* Pretty sure FUBeAR has laid this out there before, but he’ll trot it out again since it apparently didn’t take. No idea of what actually happened with that Charleston Southern away game, but what FUBeAR believes prolly happened is Mercer looked at their schedule once the SoCon schedule was set…and saw that Students were going to be returning in August and knew that local fans in Maconga hadn’t had any local college football in the Fall since 2019….and the ‘powers that were’ saw that they ain’t have a home game in Five Star Stadium until October…OCTOBER! Mercer didn’t re-start Football in 2013 to NOT have Football games on campus in the Fall until almost Basketball season…so…they made sure to book a home game (Point was prolly all they could get) and hoped to pick up another (11th) game at some point…like they had did in 2019, when they added PC the week before the game (available due to a hurricane cancellation). Didn’t happen…and now their Sno-cone guy is coolin’ his heels in the Bibb County Unemployment Office.

There ya have it Sports Fans…and Jackal.

[The Jackal]

That's a lot of words to not actually disagree with anything I said.

Schedule 10 games if you want, just don't be surprised when the at large playoff bid isn't forthcoming.

[FUBeAR]

That's a lot of words to not actually disagree with anything I said.

Schedule 10 games if you want, just don't be surprised when the at large playoff bid isn't forthcoming.

LOL - you must have missed this in my original post - “Not that FUBeAR, necessarily, disagreed with you…”

FUBeAR’s eloquent commentary (Thank you!) is not related to your position on the matter; just to the flexible positioning of your position.

[FUBeAR]

Can’t locate a link, but elsewhere posted, this is rumored to be Lindy’s Pre-season FCS Top 25

1 NORTH DAKOTA STATE
2 SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
3 SAM HOUSTON STATE
4 MONTANA STATE
5 MONTANA
6 MISSOURI STATE
7 KENNESAW STATE
8 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
9 VILLANOVA
10 EAST TENNESSEE STATE
11 EASTERN WASHINGTON
12 JACKSON STATE
13 S.F. AUSTIN
14 SACRAMENTO STATE
15 HOLY CROSS
16 INCARNATE WORD
17 SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
18 FLORIDA A&M
19 RICHMOND
20 WEBER STATE
21 JACKSONVILLE STATE
22 UT MARTIN
23 MERCER
24 DELAWARE
25 CHATTANOOGA

OK with ETSU as low as #10 (but s/b higher) and agree that Mercer should be ahead of Chatt, but both should be much closer to ETSU in any ranking/poll.

Don’t agree that SHSU or JaxSt should be ranked as they are Playoff and Conference Championship ineligible. Wonder what the difference in them and JMU is?

[fupaladin01]

I think that is a very good list given what the avg media type/FCS afficianado was able to see from the past season's games. My personal list would have Richmond a tick higher, Mercer and Chatty up 1-2 spots maybe, but I think it's fair considering the overall records and the playoff resume.

Personally I'm glad for FU to fly under the radar until we let our 2022 record speak for itself. I expect no one will talk about us until we're 6-1. A close game at Clemson and a butt-whoopin of ETSU in week 3 could change that of course.

[The Jackal]

This isn't scientific, but I think conference national perception can be influenced by scheduling.

ETSU is perceived as the SoCon front runner (mostly based on last year's results). The Bucs, though, have a pretty difficult schedule out of the gate - early road trip to Charleston, playing Citadel, Furman, and UTC in 3 of their first 5 games, back to back road trips to Mercer and VMI. One can very easily see the Bucs stumbling out of the gates, which ends up lowering the perception of the SoCon.

Mercer's in a good spot to move up. Most of their tougher games will come later in the season, so they should be able to rack up some wins.

UTC has some opportunity to help out the SoCon by beating some out of conference FCS teams early and a usually vulnerable FBS team. That always helps raise the profile.

Best case for Furman is to roll into Johnson City in week 3 against a 2-0 ETSU team, which would still then be in the top 10 and get a win. I imagine an early road win against a top 10 team would put Furman well up the rankings.

[FUBeAR]

This isn't scientific, but I think conference national perception can be influenced by scheduling.

ETSU is perceived as the SoCon front runner (mostly based on last year's results). The Bucs, though, have a pretty difficult schedule out of the gate - early road trip to Charleston, playing Citadel, Furman, and UTC in 3 of their first 5 games, back to back road trips to Mercer and VMI. One can very easily see the Bucs stumbling out of the gates, which ends up lowering the perception of the SoCon.

Mercer's in a good spot to move up. Most of their tougher games will come later in the season, so they should be able to rack up some wins.

UTC has some opportunity to help out the SoCon by beating some out of conference FCS teams early and a usually vulnerable FBS team. That always helps raise the profile.

Best case for Furman is to roll into Johnson City in week 3 against a 2-0 ETSU team, which would still then be in the top 10 and get a win. I imagine an early road win against a top 10 team would put Furman well up the rankings.

Yep - Also, for SoCon perception reasons, Mercer needs to find a way to destroy…even run the score up (if possible)…against what should be a pretty good Morehead State Team in Week 0 (8/27). Reason being is that Morehead State travels to consensus Top 5 Montana State in their next game (9/10)…and despite the ‘transitive property’ naysayers, the SoCon does get a pretty good Big Sky & Top 5 FCS comparison based on the outcomes and relative scoring margins in those 2 games. Hopefully, Mercer will dominate and Morehead State will upset the Bobcats…or maybe playing them close, but not knocking them off would be better…not sure.

[Affirm]

This isn't scientific, but I think conference national perception can be influenced by scheduling.

ETSU is perceived as the SoCon front runner (mostly based on last year's results). The Bucs, though, have a pretty difficult schedule out of the gate - early road trip to Charleston, playing Citadel, Furman, and UTC in 3 of their first 5 games, back to back road trips to Mercer and VMI. One can very easily see the Bucs stumbling out of the gates, which ends up lowering the perception of the SoCon.

Mercer's in a good spot to move up. Most of their tougher games will come later in the season, so they should be able to rack up some wins.

UTC has some opportunity to help out the SoCon by beating some out of conference FCS teams early and a usually vulnerable FBS team. That always helps raise the profile.

Best case for Furman is to roll into Johnson City in week 3 against a 2-0 ETSU team, which would still then be in the top 10 and get a win. I imagine an early road win against a top 10 team would put Furman well up the rankings.

Yep - Also, for SoCon perception reasons, Mercer needs to find a way to destroy…even run the score up (if possible)…against what should be a pretty good Morehead State Team in Week 0 (8/27). Reason being is that Morehead State travels to consensus Top 5 Montana State in their next game (9/10)…and despite the ‘transitive property’ naysayers, the SoCon does get a pretty good Big Sky & Top 5 FCS comparison based on the outcomes and relative scoring margins in those 2 games. Hopefully, Mercer will dominate and Morehead State will upset the Bobcats…or maybe playing them close, but not knocking them off would be better…not sure.

A Pioneer Football League team could do that? (Upset a top 5)
A Pioneer Football League team can be that?
(Be pretty good)
Maybe it’s a good thing Furman does not have to play a Pioneer Football League team in the first game?
(If I am a transitive property naysayer, I guess I need to know. Don’t know what transitive property naysayer is, but I guess I’d better find out, for better or for worse.)
PS: Wondering how much Mercer and Montana State each has to pay to get a Pioneer Football League team to come play them.

[FUBeAR]

Not gonna quote…

* San Diego has won 2 Playoff games over Big Sky Teams (2016 & 2017) and beat Harvard in 2019, Princeton in 2014
* Jacksonville beat CAA top-tier (usually) Delaware.
* Dayton beat the OVC’s Eastern Illinois in 2021 & the MVFC’s Indiana State and the NEC’s (now Big South) Robert Morris in 2019 (and in 2018 & 2016 & 2015 & 2014 2013…along with Duquesne (2015 & 2013)), another NEC Team). The Flyers also beat the OVC’s SEMO in 2017 and Kennesaw in 2015 and Patriot League Georgetown in 2014.
* In 2020, Davidson was leading #21 ranked Elon with 32 seconds to play and gave up a TD pass to lose by 3.

0 outcomes of non-fixed (if ‘fixed FCS games’ even exist) games are pre-determined.

PFL Teams winning games is good for PFL & FCS Football.
Doesn’t mean FU should join the PFL.
Johnny Depp won a lawsuit against an ex-wife. Doesn’t mean FUBeAR wants to marry him or date the same women he does.

You will have to practice the art of deep self-examination to determine your position with regard to transitive properties. FUBeAR cannot do that for you.

No idea of the financial terms. Would imagine Montana State is picking up some travel costs. Just a guess though. As both are state schools, you may consider filing a FOIA request for the Morehead State @ Montana State contract, if it’s not readily available at the procurement websites of either university…wait…FBGIFY…

“The Morehead State Eagles will travel to take on Montana State in Bozeman on Sept. 3, 2022. Montana State will pay Morehead State a $250,000 guarantee, per the contract copy.”

[FUBeAR]

Athlon Sports' Preseason FCS Top 25 for 2022 (CRAIG HALEY’s ranking)
https://athlonsports.com/college-footb ... op-25-2022

1. North Dakota State (14-1, 7-1 Missouri Valley)
2. South Dakota State (11-4, 5-3 Missouri Valley)
3. Montana (10-3, 6-2 Big Sky)
4. Montana State (12-3, 7-1 Big Sky)
5. Missouri State (8-4, 6-2 Missouri Valley)
6. Sacramento State (9-3, 8-0 Big Sky)
7. Southern Illinois (8-5, 5-3 Missouri Valley)
8. Villanova (10-3, 7-1 CAA)
9. Kennesaw State (11-2, 6-0 Big South)[Now ASUN/WAC]
10. Stephen F. Austin (8-4, 4-2 AQ7) [Now ASUN/WAC]
11. Holy Cross (10-3, 6-0 Patriot)
12. Chattanooga (6-5, 5-3 Southern) - In a deep SoCon, the Mocs may have the most talent. Their defense is the conference's best, returning Player of the Year Devonnsha Maxwell on the edge and linebackers Ty Boeck and Jay Person. Returning QB Cole Copeland or transfer Preston Hutchinson will get the ball to Ailym Ford and Reggie Davis, who combined to rush for 1,924 yards and 20 TDs, and tight end Chris James is a red-zone weapon.
13. Weber State (6-5, 5-3 Big Sky)
14. Rhode Island (7-4, 4-4 CAA)
15. Eastern Washington (10-3, 6-2 Big Sky)
16. UIW (10-3, 7-1 Southland)[Now ASUN/WAC]
17. Mercer (7-3, 6-2 Southern) - Motivation isn't a problem after last season: The Bears fell just short of their first SoCon title and playoff bid. Neither is talent: They return seven of their top eight tacklers, including first-team all-conference selections Solomon Zubairu (defensive end) and Lance Wise (safety), and a veteran offense that features quarterback Fred Payton and running back Fred Davis (14 TDs).
18. ETSU (11-2, 7-1 Southern) - Former Furman offensive coordinator George Quarles is the new head coach, replacing the retired Randy Sanders. Even with the loss of 1,500-yard rusher Quay Holmes, the defending SoCon champion returns 1,000-yard rusher Jacob Saylors, quarterback Tyler Riddell, and top receiver Will Huzzie. Cornerback Alijah Huzzie is only a redshirt sophomore, but he's one of the Bucs' best players already.
19. Southeastern Louisiana (9-4, 6-2 Southland)
20. Delaware (5-6, 3-5 CAA)
21. Northern Iowa (6-6, 4-4 Missouri Valley)
22. Jackson State (11-2, 8-0 SWAC)
23. William & Mary (6-5, 4-4 CAA)
24. Eastern Kentucky (7-4, 4-2 AQ7)[Now ASUN/WAC]
25. Elon (6-5, 5-3 CAA)

5 More Teams to Watch [appear to be listed in alphabetical order - FUBeAR]:
Furman (6-5, 4-4 Southern)
Harvard (8-2, 5-2 Ivy)
Murray State (6-5, 3-3 Ohio Valley)
North Dakota (5-6, 3-5 Missouri Valley)
Richmond (6-5, 4-4 CAA)

[The Jackal]

Interesting comment from Haley on UTC football.

Reggie Davis rushed 3 times for 36 yards for UTC last season. Aliym Ford, who is very good, rushed for roughly 1100.

Quite certainly he was meaning to reference Terrell Price, who rushed for nearly 900 yards, but is no longer on UTC's roster (I think he was a senior last season).

[apaladin]

Interesting comment from Haley on UTC football.

Reggie Davis rushed 3 times for 36 yards for UTC last season. Aliym Ford, who is very good, rushed for roughly 1100.

Quite certainly he was meaning to reference Terrell Price, who rushed for nearly 900 yards, but is no longer on UTC's roster (I think he was a senior last season).

Does being a senior at UTC mean anythung? Remember basketball’s Baptiste played 8 years at UTC.

[FUBeAR]

Interesting comment from Haley on UTC football.

Reggie Davis rushed 3 times for 36 yards for UTC last season. Aliym Ford, who is very good, rushed for roughly 1100.

Quite certainly he was meaning to reference Terrell Price, who rushed for nearly 900 yards, but is no longer on UTC's roster (I think he was a senior last season).

Does being a senior at UTC mean anythung? Remember basketball’s Baptiste played 8 years at UTC.

23 TYRELL PRICE
POSITION Running Back
HEIGHT 5-11
WEIGHT 211
CLASS Senior
HOMETOWN Abbeville, Miss.
PREV SCHOOL East Mississippi CC
HIGH SCHOOL Lafayette HS
CAREER
- Completed sixth years of eligibility, for at Chattanooga, in 2021 (sic - c’mon, it’s Chattanooga. You can’t expect them to win any grammar contests up there)

…and with all that said, FUBeAR believes Gino Appleberry, a Jr, who Xferred from Western Kentucky a few seasons ago will be the Mocs #2 RB behind Ford, as he was their #3 ball carrier in 2021…

RUSHING GP Att Gain Loss Net Avg TD Long Avg/G
Appleberry, Gino 10 37 201 7 194 5.2 2 35 19.4