• Samford

 #4957  by FUBeAR
 Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:38 pm
Paul C wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:28 pm
One defensive player I'm going to be watching on every snap is Adrian Hope. This is a chance for him to be a game changer.

Also interested to see how much we blitz. I'd hate to see us overdo the blitzing and give up big plays...rather see us rush 4, keep him in the pocket and make him check down. Even if it does mean we give up alot of yards, these offenses can bog down in the red zone when they back line of the end zone becomes an extra defender.

One wild card, the forecast for Sat is 90% chance of rain.....FUBear had some interesting correlation of Samford winning percentage when the weather was poor.....
Yeah - I took a long look at that for a game of theirs last year...not sure if it was against FU or Mercer, but they had gotten whipped by ETSU & Youngstown in cold and wet weather...and I went back and pulled the rest of their games’ weather reports since Coach Hatcher has been there...and I don’t remember the exact stats, but they were not good. Seemed to be a definite correlation with temperature, but I think the rainy/wet sample size was really too small to draw much inference from it. Regardless, let’s just go with it - Rain = ADVANTAGE Paladins!
 #4959  by apaladin
 Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:25 pm
In regards to the weather, it does say mainly in the morning and only a quarter of an inch, so if this forecast is good(which it won't be) then the weather for the 2PM game should be ok. Of course the forecast will change 5-10 times between now and Saturday. As for the defense why don't we blitz more on 3rd and long. Seems like every time in that situation we give the QB too much time to throw.
 #4960  by The Jackal
 Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:47 pm
FUBeAR wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:38 pm
Paul C wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:28 pm
One defensive player I'm going to be watching on every snap is Adrian Hope. This is a chance for him to be a game changer.

Also interested to see how much we blitz. I'd hate to see us overdo the blitzing and give up big plays...rather see us rush 4, keep him in the pocket and make him check down. Even if it does mean we give up alot of yards, these offenses can bog down in the red zone when they back line of the end zone becomes an extra defender.

One wild card, the forecast for Sat is 90% chance of rain.....FUBear had some interesting correlation of Samford winning percentage when the weather was poor.....
Yeah - I took a long look at that for a game of theirs last year...not sure if it was against FU or Mercer, but they had gotten whipped by ETSU & Youngstown in cold and wet weather...and I went back and pulled the rest of their games’ weather reports since Coach Hatcher has been there...and I don’t remember the exact stats, but they were not good. Seemed to be a definite correlation with temperature, but I think the rainy/wet sample size was really too small to draw much inference from it. Regardless, let’s just go with it - Rain = ADVANTAGE Paladins!
Last year’s Furman Samford game was not played in the rain, but man it was coming. By the fourth quarter the winds were moving quick.
 #4961  by FUBeAR
 Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:58 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:47 pm
FUBeAR wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:38 pm
Paul C wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:28 pm
One defensive player I'm going to be watching on every snap is Adrian Hope. This is a chance for him to be a game changer.

Also interested to see how much we blitz. I'd hate to see us overdo the blitzing and give up big plays...rather see us rush 4, keep him in the pocket and make him check down. Even if it does mean we give up alot of yards, these offenses can bog down in the red zone when they back line of the end zone becomes an extra defender.

One wild card, the forecast for Sat is 90% chance of rain.....FUBear had some interesting correlation of Samford winning percentage when the weather was poor.....
Yeah - I took a long look at that for a game of theirs last year...not sure if it was against FU or Mercer, but they had gotten whipped by ETSU & Youngstown in cold and wet weather...and I went back and pulled the rest of their games’ weather reports since Coach Hatcher has been there...and I don’t remember the exact stats, but they were not good. Seemed to be a definite correlation with temperature, but I think the rainy/wet sample size was really too small to draw much inference from it. Regardless, let’s just go with it - Rain = ADVANTAGE Paladins!
Last year’s Furman Samford game was not played in the rain, but man it was coming. By the fourth quarter the winds were moving quick.
Oh yeah - that's right. We were expecting a torrential downpour at kickoff, but, instead, it came when I was driving home after eating dinner in Homewood. Couldn't see a thing. Had to pull over and wait it out. Coach Hatcher obviously was horsetradin' wit da debil. Perhaps, his payment comes due this week. :twisted:
 #4962  by FUBeAR
 Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:02 pm
apaladin wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:25 pm
As for the defense why don't we blitz more on 3rd and long. Seems like every time in that situation we give the QB too much time to throw.
In Conference-Games-Only, Furman is 2nd in the SoCon in preventing Opponents' 3rd down conversions...

OPP 3RD-DN CONVERT G Conv. Att. Pct.
1. Wofford 4 15 55 27.3
2. Furman 3 13 40 32.5
3. Samford 4 20 57 35.1
4. Western Carolina 4 21 54 38.9
5. Mercer 3 18 46 39.1
6. The Citadel 4 18 45 40.0
7. Chattanooga 5 30 74 40.5
8. ETSU 4 28 69 40.6
9. VMI 5 26 64 40.6

...doesn't break it down into 3rd/short vs. 3rd/long...but the Dins are getting off the field better than most.
 #4963  by The Jackal
 Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:20 pm
Another guy that might cause trouble is Taylor Hodge.

Just an observation from Saturday. During the time when you would expect Wofford to be passing more (3rd down late) Furman went a lot faster on defense.

On this play, the front four was Seabrook, Reid, Hodge, and Hope. Perryman stays in the middle and McKoy and Willis flare outside against the double twins look and drop back some.

I think Seabrook is credited with a sack here, but seems clearly a designed QB draw. Hodge isn’t a guy who gets his name called much, but Wofford tries cutting him and can’t block him. Wofford’s RG is listed at 6’4 305 and Hodge at 5’9 255. Physics alone might suggest it is tough for an OL to cut block a screaming bullet 7 inches shorter than he is.

You might see this alignment a good bit against Samford. Fast off the ball and almost forces OL in 1 v 1 matchups.

 #4965  by FUBeAR
 Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:29 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:20 pm
Another guy that might cause trouble is Taylor Hodge.

Just an observation from Saturday. During the time when you would expect Wofford to be passing more (3rd down late) Furman went a lot faster on defense.

On this play, the front four was Seabrook, Reid, Hodge, and Hope. Perryman stays in the middle and McKoy and Willis flare outside against the double twins look and drop back some.

I think Seabrook is credited with a sack here, but seems clearly a designed QB draw. Hodge isn’t a guy who gets his name called much, but Wofford tries cutting him and can’t block him. Wofford’s RG is listed at 6’4 305 and Hodge at 5’9 255. Physics alone might suggest it is tough for an OL to cut block a screaming bullet 7 inches shorter than he is.

You might see this alignment a good bit against Samford. Fast off the ball and almost forces OL in 1 v 1 matchups.

That 6’ 4” 305 Wofford OLman has at least 2x the athleticism & agility of 4/5’s of Sanford’s OL.

But...Samford & Wofford, typically, go about PassPro with almost completely opposite approaches. Wofford wants you to think it’s a run on almost every pass play, so their OL typically take a step or a half-step forward and keep their hats low cuz LB’s are taught to read OLmen hats to distinguish between pass & run. Wofford tends to have more of a man-scheme to their PassPro with pass-offs & switches to manage blitz pick-up. All this plays into the super-quick / great ball-getoff guys like Hope & Hodge.

Samford, on the other hand, knows that you know that they know that they know they are gonna pass, so they don’t care about stepping slightly forward or keeping their hats low. They raise up to their full (too) tall selves and begin retreating as fast as they can at the snap of the ball. Defeat steps, I call them, but I’m old-school. They become, essentially, a retreating wall of beef. I would say wall of fat, but I’ve found some people are offended by that characterization. They want to delay contact with any DLmen as long as possible, while maintaining a protective shell around their QB. So, moves & leverage of DLmen are less effective. You can beat their OT’s to their spot if you have AMAZING ball-getoff and Hope may have that. I would imagine we will see if he does. They also are primarily zone scheme, so all of your twisting & looping at the LOS doesn’t matter because they want to and will let you just do that ...and they’ll make contact with you ‘later’ when you catch up to them and enter their zone..and you show your hands & contact them. They want to counter your hands, not allow you to counter theirs. Meanwhile, while all this is going on, Hodges just threw the ball 22.5 yards sideways to McKnight in the slot. Did you have him covered from the inside out with your walked LB? Did your inched-up Safety beat the block of the Split Receiver and help the CB tackle #6 to the ground? Did they all 3 maintain proper leverage to keep him from water-bugging himself thru for a big gain? Good. 2 yard gain. Line up and do it again. Double-loops (over 2 gaps...or more, even) & delayed blitzes can get to #8 if the DL can ‘draw fire’ from one or more of their fa...I mean, Beefy Boys and get him to turn to open up a hole in the wall. But, if their quick game is getting yards, that ball won’t be there by the time that loopy or delayed blitz gets to him. Pass rushing Sanford is more about finesse & ‘catching’ them wrong than it is showing off your 1-on-1 camp moves.
Paul C, The Jackal, FUKA61 and 2 others liked this
 #4966  by DeepPurple
 Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:34 am
Really think we need some ball control, eat the clock, like we saw this past Saturday. Thankful we play at Paladin Stadium this Saturday.
 #4967  by The Jackal
 Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:01 am
DeepPurple wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:34 am
Really think we need some ball control, eat the clock, like we saw this past Saturday. Thankful we play at Paladin Stadium this Saturday.
Of course, the easiest way to limit Hodges and his effectiveness is to keep him standing on the sideline.

When Samford is at their best, they are pumping and going up and down the field. When they feel like they have momentum, they'll go even faster.

Yards gained is an irrelevant statistic against Samford. Samford had 31 first downs, had nearly 100 more yards of offense, and ran 25 more plays than Chattanooga did and lost.

I also had not realized this, but Samford is the most penalized team in the league. They've played two more games than Furman, but have been flagged 35 more times for an average of nearly 75 yards a game. Furman is the least penalized team in the league.

I feel similarly about this one as I did against Wofford. I think Furman is a better team than Samford. I think Samford does one thing really well, and if you can limit their ability to do that one thing, they are imminently beatable.
FUBeAR, QCGlue, Jasper and 1 others liked this
 #4969  by apaladin
 Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:24 am
One thing we can count on: Samford will not play like they did against Mercer and Chatty. They will play their absolute best against FU. We better be ready!!
 #4970  by FUBeAR
 Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:28 am
Those that make a living by enabling addicted degenerates to separate themselves from their assets have installed Sanford as a 7 point favorite on Saturday...

Sanford at Furman - Saturday, October 20, 2018 2:00 PM
Sanford -7 Over 64


I know it ain’t how it works, so don’t @ me...but I like to think that means they are projecting the score ‘in the neighborhood’ of...

Sanford 35
Furman 28

What y’all think about that?
 #4971  by Jasper
 Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:30 am
The Jackal wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:01 am
DeepPurple wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:34 am
Really think we need some ball control, eat the clock, like we saw this past Saturday. Thankful we play at Paladin Stadium this Saturday.
Of course, the easiest way to limit Hodges and his effectiveness is to keep him standing on the sideline.

When Samford is at their best, they are pumping and going up and down the field. When they feel like they have momentum, they'll go even faster.

Yards gained is an irrelevant statistic against Samford. Samford had 31 first downs, had nearly 100 more yards of offense, and ran 25 more plays than Chattanooga did and lost.

I also had not realized this, but Samford is the most penalized team in the league. They've played two more games than Furman, but have been flagged 35 more times for an average of nearly 75 yards a game. Furman is the least penalized team in the league.

I feel similarly about this one as I did against Wofford. I think Furman is a better team than Samford. I think Samford does one thing really well, and if you can limit their ability to do that one thing, they are imminently beatable.
You are correct, Jackal. There should not be any mystery to this one. We need to defend the pass against a very good QB in a much better fashion than we have shown against good throwers yet this year. A big part of that defense may will be in our offense keeping Hodges off the field as much as possible but it still should come down to our DB's playing aggressively with good technique.
 #4973  by youwouldno
 Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:54 am
FUBeAR wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:28 am
Those that make a living by enabling addicted degenerates to separate themselves from their assets have installed Sanford as a 7 point favorite on Saturday...

Sanford at Furman - Saturday, October 20, 2018 2:00 PM
Sanford -7 Over 64


I know it ain’t how it works, so don’t @ me...but I like to think that means they are projecting the score ‘in the neighborhood’ of...

Sanford 35
Furman 28

What y’all think about that?
I think I want to know what sportsbook that is from, because it's a really unusual spread - Massey has Furman as a 3-point favorite.
 #4974  by FUBeAR
 Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:13 pm
youwouldno wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:54 am
FUBeAR wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:28 am
Those that make a living by enabling addicted degenerates to separate themselves from their assets have installed Sanford as a 7 point favorite on Saturday...

Sanford at Furman - Saturday, October 20, 2018 2:00 PM
Sanford -7 Over 64


I know it ain’t how it works, so don’t @ me...but I like to think that means they are projecting the score ‘in the neighborhood’ of...

Sanford 35
Furman 28

What y’all think about that?
I think I want to know what sportsbook that is from, because it's a really unusual spread - Massey has Furman as a 3-point favorite.
https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx#al_27

Click on the box to the left that says “College Extra” and scroll down
 #4976  by Paul C
 Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:45 pm
apaladin wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:24 am
One thing we can count on: Samford will not play like they did against Mercer and Chatty. They will play their absolute best against FU. We better be ready!!
No question they are on a roll after playing VMI and WCU at home. Definitely think that home field advantage plays in our favor as they are winless on the road so far this year.