Agree, Ait was very soft. In that situation if you play that soft they are going to score eventually. May take a while but they will svore. Why not get up on them and make them beat you? Worse case scenario is they score sooner and leave time on the clock. At least you have a chance to stop them.curiousfan wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:30 pmDuring that last drive, I am still wondering why we were playing a soft zone...put hands on the WR's and play ball...they had not shown that they could beat us...the soft zone allowed the offense to "hitch", curl and out-route us down the field!furmandad wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:19 pmgofurman wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 6:40 pmState of program. Good. Not great.
Superb D (occasional pass D bonehead play on third and long) but SUPERB D
O HAS TO SCORE 20. Please.
**+*+. As I look forward , my fear is the D might take a step back next year as the O progresses and we remain about 6-5. OL is young. JW is very young. We do lose Wynn - that will hurt. If Miller and Harris progress that’s awesome. O could definitely. Improve
But D losing Hope. McKoy. Clay. Several DL. I worry our D was best this year
D should be fine next year. Hope lost contain at least two times yesterday as ETSU basic toss sweep went wide without resistance (caught inside). My key concern is DB's. Our defensive backfield looked confused, or we were in wrong coverages, or both, particularly on their last/winning drive. A shame their winning TD came against maybe our best DB. Last drive we made their 5'10 175 lb QB look like Brady. Agree with apaladin - our kick off and kick off return teams need a lot of work. Same with punt return. Many on the board seem to think JW can run ... I haven't seen much game evidence of that (at Furman) yet. High School highlights were nice; he's been run down a few times by D-Lineman and LB's. He did throw some really nice balls yesterday; at least two were dropped and right on target, one for a TD. The throw back from inside the ETSU 10 that was intercepted should have been our score - receiver was wide open - just couldn't get it there.
State of the football program
When is the last time we have had a good punt or kickoff return? Those seem to be few and far between.
apaladin wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:31 pmAgree, Ait was very soft. In that situation if you play that soft they are going to score eventually. May take a while but they will svore. Why not get up on them and make them beat you? Worse case scenario is they score sooner and leave time on the clock. At least you have a chance to stop them.curiousfan wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:30 pmDuring that last drive, I am still wondering why we were playing a soft zone...put hands on the WR's and play ball...they had not shown that they could beat us...the soft zone allowed the offense to "hitch", curl and out-route us down the field!furmandad wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:19 pmgofurman wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 6:40 pmState of program. Good. Not great.
Superb D (occasional pass D bonehead play on third and long) but SUPERB D
O HAS TO SCORE 20. Please.
**+*+. As I look forward , my fear is the D might take a step back next year as the O progresses and we remain about 6-5. OL is young. JW is very young. We do lose Wynn - that will hurt. If Miller and Harris progress that’s awesome. O could definitely. Improve
But D losing Hope. McKoy. Clay. Several DL. I worry our D was best this year
D should be fine next year. Hope lost contain at least two times yesterday as ETSU basic toss sweep went wide without resistance (caught inside). My key concern is DB's. Our defensive backfield looked confused, or we were in wrong coverages, or both, particularly on their last/winning drive. A shame their winning TD came against maybe our best DB. Last drive we made their 5'10 175 lb QB look like Brady. Agree with apaladin - our kick off and kick off return teams need a lot of work. Same with punt return. Many on the board seem to think JW can run ... I haven't seen much game evidence of that (at Furman) yet. High School highlights were nice; he's been run down a few times by D-Lineman and LB's. He did throw some really nice balls yesterday; at least two were dropped and right on target, one for a TD. The throw back from inside the ETSU 10 that was intercepted should have been our score - receiver was wide open - just couldn't get it there.
I realize it has been a familiar refrain here over the years to criticize "soft zone coverage." It's not that simple.
I think you are focused on criticizing the result, not the process. For instance, you (or someone) complained during the game about not pressuring the QB enough on third down. Well, here you go.
3rd and 13 in the 4th Q. Furman brings a 6 man pressure - all four defensive linemen and both inside linebackers.
ETSU picks up the blitz. Their running backs did a great job picking up Furman blitzes all afternoon, and did so again here.
So, then what about the coverage? Furman looks to drop into a cover three with maybe two DBs underneath. I count three safeties on the field (Ryan, Brinson, and Clay).
With ETSU's excellent running backs and constant attempt to run screens, we didn't play a lot of man coverage (thereby forcing our defensive backs to turn their backs to the ETSU backfield). So, we drop back knowing they have to throw a deep ball. The one thing our CB can't allow is a ball over his head down the sideline (remember, we have a lead).
So, is this "soft" coverage? We brought 6 pass rushers - is that "soft?" 5 DBs can't cover every zone of the field against 4 WRs with all of our linebackers engaged at the line. Too much space.
Some of you (maybe you) complained that Furman didn't bring enough pressure on third downs against ETSU. It's hard to have it both ways. You bring 6 and leave your self exposed if they pick it up. If you bring 6, it's hard to cover the rest of the field and every possible route combination.
Here's another long 3rd down.
Furman rushes 4 and drops everyone else. Yes, this is zone, but on a 3rd and long, you are fine if ETSU wants to throw the ball underneath. In my view, this just a really good throw by the QB. Maybe our safety or linebacker was a step slow in closing a hole. But that's a beautifully thrown ball right over the LB and under the S and an excellent catch.
I get the frustration, but this isn't as simple as watching a completed pass and complaining about "soft" coverage. In several of these instances, you have to tip your cap to ETSU. The Citadel and Wofford didn't make these throws. ETSU did.
It looks like 5 guys are playing 8-10 yards pack and backpedaling. That’s pretty soft. Giving them a first down on every play with that much time left seems a tad over conservative. BUT I’ve seen the prevent defense defended on enough tv shows to know that the metrics people say it works even though it often appears suicidal. So everybody does it. Not sure how they know that when nobody ever tries just running the defense that worked the whole game.
It seems pretty obvious to me that Furman was playing not to lose on the final drive. They were ok giving up a FG, just not a TD. I’m ok with that knowing a sack, fumble, INT, or blocked FG are all possible to win the game. They wanted underneath plays that kept the clock moving. Unfortunately they needed 10 less seconds on the clock to execute that plan.
I have said this about 5 times. WIth an O that is struggling we could REALLY use a good KOR or PR. FGs have been great but we can't seem to break the 30 on any KOR.. I don't recall us ever even getting to the 35 all year? Have we gotten to the 35 on a KOR once?purplehorse wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:24 amWhen is the last time we have had a good punt or kickoff return? Those seem to be few and far between.
If not, that is bad. We shoud have at least two to midfield by this time of the year.
These are very easy things to research…gofurman wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:59 pmI have said this about 5 times. WIth an O that is struggling we could REALLY use a good KOR or PR. FGs have been great but we can't seem to break the 30 on any KOR.. I don't recall us ever even getting to the 35 all year? Have we gotten to the 35 on a KOR once?purplehorse wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:24 amWhen is the last time we have had a good punt or kickoff return? Those seem to be few and far between.
If not, that is bad. We shoud have at least two to midfield by this time of the year.
PUNT RETURNS https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fc ... team/97/p3
Last updated October 24, 2021 - Through games October 23, 2021
RANK TEAM G PUNT RET PUNT RET YDS PUNT RET TDS AVG
102 Furman 7 12 43 0 3.58
KICKOFF RETURNS https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fc ... team/96/p2
Last updated October 24, 2021 - Through games October 23, 2021
RANK TEAM G KO RET KO RET YDS KICK RET TDS AVG
93 Furman 7 15 262 0 17.47
On the other hand, Top 10, 7-1 Montana State is ranked next to last in KOR’s. Also, ranked and SoCon leading VMI is 7th to last in PR’s…so not sure how success-predictive either of these stats are in the big picture
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20.10.1.2 …maintaining a line of demarcation between student-athletes who participate in the Collegiate Model and athletes competing in the professional model
20.10.1 ...intercollegiate athletics...competition in amateur athletics…
20.10.1.2 …maintaining a line of demarcation between student-athletes who participate in the Collegiate Model and athletes competing in the professional model
I don't think this is a big deal.
Furman averages 17.5 yards on a kick return. The entire SoCon with the exception of ETSU is right around 20 yards per return. So, a couple of yards here and there on average. Nothing significant.
Most of the teams with the best kickoff return averages are also the league's weakest teams. That's not coincidental. Long kick returns are somewhat random and require some luck and teams that have more of them (i.e., the teams giving up the most points) have a higher probability of breaking a long return because they have more opportunities to do so.
Furman, for instance, has a top defense and fewer chances to return kicks because fewer teams score on them.
As far as punt returns, I really don't think Hendrix emphasizes that part of the game. Since becoming head coach, Furman is generally one of the league's worst teams in punt return average (with the exception of 2019). I think this is philosophical. Hendrix would prefer a fair catch and safely secure the ball than the riskier attempt at a return that usually does not result in significant yardage but comes with a much higher risk of a turnover.
So, out of everything to worry about with the program, these two areas are low down the list for me.
Furman averages 17.5 yards on a kick return. The entire SoCon with the exception of ETSU is right around 20 yards per return. So, a couple of yards here and there on average. Nothing significant.
Most of the teams with the best kickoff return averages are also the league's weakest teams. That's not coincidental. Long kick returns are somewhat random and require some luck and teams that have more of them (i.e., the teams giving up the most points) have a higher probability of breaking a long return because they have more opportunities to do so.
Furman, for instance, has a top defense and fewer chances to return kicks because fewer teams score on them.
As far as punt returns, I really don't think Hendrix emphasizes that part of the game. Since becoming head coach, Furman is generally one of the league's worst teams in punt return average (with the exception of 2019). I think this is philosophical. Hendrix would prefer a fair catch and safely secure the ball than the riskier attempt at a return that usually does not result in significant yardage but comes with a much higher risk of a turnover.
So, out of everything to worry about with the program, these two areas are low down the list for me.
The Jackal wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:43 pmSo, out of everything to worry about with the program, these two areas are low down the list for me.
Well, maybe the right things are not being prioritized in all cases. Given the mixed results on the field.
So while your assessment of what has happened seems correct, that doesn't mean it should automatically continue into the future.
I assume the coaches think critically about all this kind of stuff on an ongoing basis, but of course have no way to know.
FYI Punt returns:
FU avg. 3.58
Opp avg. 14.38
FU avg. 3.58
Opp avg. 14.38
FUBeAR, thank you for the links - that is on me ...FUBeAR wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:41 pmThese are very easy things to research…gofurman wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:59 pmI have said this about 5 times. WIth an O that is struggling we could REALLY use a good KOR or PR. FGs have been great but we can't seem to break the 30 on any KOR.. I don't recall us ever even getting to the 35 all year? Have we gotten to the 35 on a KOR once?purplehorse wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:24 amWhen is the last time we have had a good punt or kickoff return? Those seem to be few and far between.
If not, that is bad. We shoud have at least two to midfield by this time of the year.
PUNT RETURNS https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fc ... team/97/p3
Last updated October 24, 2021 - Through games October 23, 2021
RANK TEAM G PUNT RET PUNT RET YDS PUNT RET TDS AVG
102 Furman 7 12 43 0 3.58
KICKOFF RETURNS https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fc ... team/96/p2
Last updated October 24, 2021 - Through games October 23, 2021
RANK TEAM G KO RET KO RET YDS KICK RET TDS AVG
93 Furman 7 15 262 0 17.47
On the other hand, Top 10, 7-1 Montana State is ranked next to last in KOR’s. Also, ranked and SoCon leading VMI is 7th to last in PR’s…so not sure how success-predictive either of these stats are in the big picture
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I am with you all on punt returns as I see too many fumbles there. I think the key with a PR is to not let it bounce away and go 15 more yards. That's the objective - just catch it very safely. I understand our theory there.
However, it would be nice to get a strong KOR or two. That could literally be worth an extra W. One KOR to the 50 could have won us the game vs ETSU.. I don't think it is too much to ask to have one or two KOR to midfield each year. Seems pretty typical and really can add one win which can win the conference or get us in the playoffs.
I'm not happy about the loss and I understand this is part of a larger trend BUT losing to a top 15 opponent by 4 is not the canary in the coal mine.
We are not going to beat a good team with our current offense, that would be the takeaway here.
Right now as it stands we have 4 wins against losing teams, and things are not looking promising for this Saturday @UTC to be frank, I hope we light up the scoreboard, but judging by how our past 16 Div. I games have gone I doubt it, lets see what happens.
2015purplehorse wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:24 amWhen is the last time we have had a good punt or kickoff return? Those seem to be few and far between.