Our SoCon Tourney Road to the Championship

[cavedweller2]

I kinda think we have a better chance than anyone else, but it’s still less than 50 %.

that makes sense - barring absolute domination you would always take the 'field... Furman / Woff / UNCG / Chatt / ETSU etc so many have a realistic chance to win it all. In no order it is probably 15 / 15 / 20 / 10/ 10 / 10 / 10/ 5/ 5 to win it all. That probably isn't the right number of teams but you get my pt. You would Always take "the field" over any one team. Say WOff or UNCG is top chance to win it.. I would give them each a 20/25% at best to win it - too much parity

I figured we had like a 25% chance, but I was afraid to say that.

Apparently, what is being said here is that Furman's chance is maybe 15%.
Over the years of 1981-2020 (40 years), the number of times that Furman won the annual tournament was ZERO. "ZERO and 40". Is there someone on here who could please tell me what is the statistical probability of that happening ZERO times out of 40, if random? I realize it is not random and is influenced by resources of each school, but overall, I am not convinced that Furman's resources compared to each of the other teams' resources have been that much lower (nor higher).
Also, over the years of 1971-1980 (10 years), the number of times that Furman won the annual tournament was SIX. "SIX and 4." What is the statistical probability of SIX out of 10, if random?
The following probably does not matter, but here is some additional information:

• during 1971 - 1980, Furman won the regular season 4 times, each in years that Furman won the conference tournament also; during 1981-2020, Furman won the regular season 2 times

Back in the day we had some dominant teams that could really only be challenged by maybe one other SoCon team. Few teams had any chance at all of beating us. So we probably had about a 70-80% chance. It was way non random. This year everybody seems to be able to lose to everybody so it’s more random. But I think we have a slightly better roster than anybody else, so I’d still say we have more like a 25% hope.

Should have been 7 but we lost to ECU in a game we should have won on a goofy play where they got ridiculously loose/open under the basket. 1972 in the Brown Box.

[apaladin]

I remember that ECU game. They threw up a hail Mary from over half court and I was thinking we won when it hit the backboard and fell right in the hands of an ECU player and he laid it in at the buzzer. Like I said in the football thread I think I have seen FU lose in every conceivable way but the fb game Saturday proved me wrong. That ECU games was an all-time top 5 pisser.

[apaladin]

I kinda think we have a better chance than anyone else, but it’s still less than 50 %.

that makes sense - barring absolute domination you would always take the 'field... Furman / Woff / UNCG / Chatt / ETSU etc so many have a realistic chance to win it all. In no order it is probably 15 / 15 / 20 / 10/ 10 / 10 / 10/ 5/ 5 to win it all. That probably isn't the right number of teams but you get my pt. You would Always take "the field" over any one team. Say WOff or UNCG is top chance to win it.. I would give them each a 20/25% at best to win it - too much parity

I figured we had like a 25% chance, but I was afraid to say that.

Apparently, what is being said here is that Furman's chance is maybe 15%.
Over the years of 1981-2020 (40 years), the number of times that Furman won the annual tournament was ZERO. "ZERO and 40". Is there someone on here who could please tell me what is the statistical probability of that happening ZERO times out of 40, if random? I realize it is not random and is influenced by resources of each school, but overall, I am not convinced that Furman's resources compared to each of the other teams' resources have been that much lower (nor higher).
Also, over the years of 1971-1980 (10 years), the number of times that Furman won the annual tournament was SIX. "SIX and 4." What is the statistical probability of SIX out of 10, if random?
The following probably does not matter, but here is some additional information:

• during 1971 - 1980, Furman won the regular season 4 times, each in years that Furman won the conference tournament also; during 1981-2020, Furman won the regular season 2 times

Back in the day we had some dominant teams that could really only be challenged by maybe one other SoCon team. Few teams had any chance at all of beating us. So we probably had about a 70-80% chance. It was way non random. This year everybody seems to be able to lose to everybody so it’s more random. But I think we have a slightly better roster than anybody else, so I’d still say we have more like a 25% hope.

Probably best chance in years to get to the tourney and some folks want to rehash the last 40 years?

Thats a good topic if Dins dont make it... but right now... full steam ahead... damn the torpedoes!

We get to the tournament every year, problem is hanging around and winning it.

[Affirm]

40 years of disappointment just makes you think it's going to be the same old, again. Sorry. But it also makes you think it's got to end sometime. After all, Clemson finally won in Chapel Hill, and they thought that would never happen.

[apaladin]

40 years of disappointment just makes you think it's going to be the same old, again. Sorry. But it also makes you think it's got to end sometime. After all, Clemson finally won in Chapel Hill, and they thought that would never happen.

Yep after 40 years it’s hard for fans to believe. Especially after last year when we had a very good team and lost the first game. How many times have we even made the finals? I don’t know but maybe twice in 40 years? I really just remember the one a few years ago when we finished last in the regular season but made it to the finals. Has there been another one?

[tim]

40 years of disappointment just makes you think it's going to be the same old, again. Sorry. But it also makes you think it's got to end sometime. After all, Clemson finally won in Chapel Hill, and they thought that would never happen.

Yep after 40 years it’s hard for fans to believe. Especially after last year when we had a very good team and lost the first game. How many times have we even made the finals? I don’t know but maybe twice in 40 years? I really just remember the one a few years ago when we finished last in the regular season but made it to the finals. Has there been another one?

There was a Larry Davis team in Charleston that made it to the finals against Davidson. We were fine until a kid went off and hit five straight threes against us.

[apaladin]

Remember that top 25 Richmond team we missed playing back in December? They finishef 8th in the A10.

[apaladin]

That can work as a psychological advantage for us. Time to dish out some payback to VMI for canceling and time to even the score with Woffy.

Seems like those payback and revenge games never pan out like you think.

[Roundball]

That can work as a psychological advantage for us. Time to dish out some payback to VMI for canceling and time to even the score with Woffy.

Seems like those payback and revenge games never pan out like you think.

Exactly. If the focus is on payback and revenge, we lose.

[furpop16]

Exactly. If the focus is on payback and revenge, we lose.

"There's not a lot of money in revenge." - Inigo Montoya

[Paul C]

40 years of disappointment just makes you think it's going to be the same old, again. Sorry. But it also makes you think it's got to end sometime. After all, Clemson finally won in Chapel Hill, and they thought that would never happen.

Yep after 40 years it’s hard for fans to believe. Especially after last year when we had a very good team and lost the first game. How many times have we even made the finals? I don’t know but maybe twice in 40 years? I really just remember the one a few years ago when we finished last in the regular season but made it to the finals. Has there been another one?

twice

2001-02
2014-15

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S ... _champions

[apaladin]

Remember that top 25 Richmond team we missed playing back in December? They finishef 8th in the A10.

Richmond lost their first A10 tournament game to #9.

[DoomedDin1127]

https://www.thepaladin.news/articles/th ... redictions

This is what the student-lead news had to say about Furman’s road to the championship.

[apaladin]

SoCon scores:
Citadel scored 68 points in the second half and came from behind to beat WCU 100-86
Mercer as expected routed Sammy 87-69. Sammy was never in the game.

[tya1]

Hopefully the team spent some time this past week practicing three point shooting. If you compare stats you will see a big drop in the stats compared to last year.

Last year the Paladins hit 35.2% from the outside. This year that dropped to 33.8% Two years ago that number was 36.1% Oddly enough the drop was due to big drops from some of our top players. Bothwell plunged from 37.7% to 27.8%, Mounce dropped from 39.1% to 3l.3%, Gurley from 40.7% to 33%.

35% from three point range would have won four of the five SoCon losses and maybe all five games. The losses to Alabama and Winthrop were the only losses that would not have been reversed.