• 2020(21) Preseaon Predictions

 #33206  by The Jackal
 Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:39 am
It is November, and I guess it's a good time to talk some preseason predictions(?).

I'm bullish on the season. Furman ended last season as both the league's top offense and top defense. I think we will be better on both sides of the ball this season.

WCU (W) - WCU played two games this fall and didn't look particularly good. The defense gave up all sorts of yards to a not-very-good Eastern Kentucky team. I'd expect WCU to look a lot like WCU does most seasons - talented athletically, potential for some potent offensive games, not particularly physical, weak on defense.

@VMI (W) - The Keydets ran an almost middle-schoolish 5-3 defense against us this past fall. It didn't help. They are typically a scrappy bunch, but we should physically handle them. One concern might be inclement weather, playing in the Virginia mountains in February. We don't have a great track record in less-than-ideal conditions.

Samford (W) - Samford was no match for Furman's offense last season. They were steamrolled. The Hatch Attack ran a bunch of plays, but for short yardage and Furman's defense didn't expose the end zone. They return their same QB tandem, but, I think, are going to have to vastly elevate their play in Greenville.

@ETSU (W) - The Bucs are a bit of an enigma. Won the SoCon title two years ago. Finished last in 2019. They were still respectable on defense in 2019, but have graduated a few of their best players. They still feature two excellent running backs. I expect a scrappy team that Furman will need to put away late. Like VMI, I think the Bucs can hang around if you let them.

UTC (W) - I think this will be Furman's toughest test. The Mocs are well coached and sound defensively. They'll return most of their offense and nearly all of the offensive line. They have an excellent RB in Ford and WR in Nunnelly. QB is still a question mark. They looked good in their lone fall game against Western Kentucky (an FBS school) and should have beaten them. I would expect a four quarter fight.

@Mercer (W) - Cronic will have this team heading in the right direction, but I don't think he inherited a lot of depth from Lamb. I watched some of their games this fall. They look more disciplined, especially on defense, but are still a mixed bag at QB. I'd put Mercer in the same bag as teams like Samford and WCU right now. In a rebuilding season, we will be their biggest game and certainly biggest home game. They'll be up for knocking us off.

@the Citadel (W) - The Citadel on the road is always tricky. They run a unique offense and have essentially two playmakers on offense and a stud on defense we have to deal with. Last year's game was an abomination and easily the worst I've seen Furman play under Hendrix. If Furman plays it's game, we're the better team. Like WCU, they lost to a not-great Eastern Kentucky team at home. Under Thompson, though, the Bulldogs are typically good to upset at least one team a year. Last year it was us. This year let's make it not us.

Wofford (W) - The Terriers have been the final boss for Furman in its push back to national relevancy. They lost a ton of players off last year's team (something like nine of eleven starters on offense) and we are really going to see how Conklin and his staff handles the first season where most of Mike Ayers players are finally gone. Lot of unknowns for Wofford this year, but we'll see them in Greenville, we'll have just seen an option team, and we will know a great deal more about them by the season's last game.

There it is - a not-terribly-common 8-0 SoCon season en route to a playoff seed. Don't disappoint me.

Remember - there really is no backdoor for the SoCon this season. Win the conference, or go home. Every game is monumentally important. No off days.
AstroDin, furman88, fupaladin01 and 2 others liked this
 #33210  by Davemeister
 Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:46 am
Very good game-by-game breakdown.

Like Jackal, I expect Furman to be the best team in the SoCon. However . . . I do not expect us to win all eight of our games in the upcoming Spring Season. Can't say who it is that will knock us off, but we will have one game in which we can't kill nuthin' and won't nuthin' die. That's just how the sport works.

My Prediculation: 7-1.

Still think we can win the title & make the playoffs, but we won't be immaculate.
furman88 liked this
 #33226  by AstroDin
 Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:43 am
fupaladin01 wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:19 pm
Here's a prediction: Furman will score 40+ three times and hold opponents under 10 twice. At least one game won't be played.
I think there is a lot of truth to your point. Furman has relied on deception for the past three years under CCH. Year by year talent level and depth have increased to what Furman will put on the field in 2021.

I would rank 2021 SoCon Offenses
1. Furman
2. Samford
3. Chatty
4. Mercer
5. The Citadel
6. Wofford
7-9 Western, ETCU, VMI

I've already said it - I think this offensive line will be far more physical and dominate - if this does play out - this will be the beginning of an era of dominant Paladin offensive teams. I don't see a SoCon school on the schedule that can match this team's offensive capabilities. I think we (us Furman fans) might be underestimating the talent, depth, and skill set of the Furman running back corp. Besides having five guys that can tote the rock they can all catch it. Two (Wynn and Anderson) are very dangerous and now you have possibly the best of the bunch at catching and running Kendall Thomas.

Anything can happen on a Saturday and I'm sure adversity will strike in 2021 - but the potential is there for Furman to have a very dominant 2021.
 #33227  by The Jackal
 Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:45 am
Davemeister wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:46 am
Very good game-by-game breakdown.

Like Jackal, I expect Furman to be the best team in the SoCon. However . . . I do not expect us to win all eight of our games in the upcoming Spring Season. Can't say who it is that will knock us off, but we will have one game in which we can't kill nuthin' and won't nuthin' die. That's just how the sport works.

My Prediculation: 7-1.

Still think we can win the title & make the playoffs, but we won't be immaculate.
I don't necessarily disagree with you. While not rare, perfect runs through the SoCon are not entirely common (2 times in last 10 seasons).

As we sit here today, I do think we are the most talented team on paper. Of course, games are not played on paper. We will have the target on our backs.

The specter of last year's Citadel game is still fresh on my mind - a game where we were not necessarily outplayed or outcoached, but just couldn't execute the offense. Bad games happen. When you hit that next level, though, you win ugly.

I believe our defense is going to keep us in every game. The question mark is going to be whether our offense can keep the pressure up on a team for four quarters.
 #33229  by The Jackal
 Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:49 am
AstroDin wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:43 am
fupaladin01 wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:19 pm
Here's a prediction: Furman will score 40+ three times and hold opponents under 10 twice. At least one game won't be played.
I think there is a lot of truth to your point. Furman has relied on deception for the past three years under CCH. Year by year talent level and depth have increased to what Furman will put on the field in 2021.

I would rank 2021 SoCon Offenses
1. Furman
2. Samford
3. Chatty
4. Mercer
5. The Citadel
6. Wofford
7-9 Western, ETCU, VMI

I've already said it - I think this offensive line will be far more physical and dominate - if this does play out - this will be the beginning of an era of dominant Paladin offensive teams. I don't see a SoCon school on the schedule that can match this team's offensive capabilities. I think we (us Furman fans) might be underestimating the talent, depth, and skill set of the Furman running back corp. Besides having five guys that can tote the rock they can all catch it. Two (Wynn and Anderson) are very dangerous and now you have possibly the best of the bunch at catching and running Kendall Thomas.

Anything can happen on a Saturday and I'm sure adversity will strike in 2021 - but the potential is there for Furman to have a very dominant 2021.
At our best, we can throw so much at a defense. We have a playmakers coming from every direction.

The issue will be - as it was last year - can we get the ball from point A to point B in the air?
 #33230  by AstroDin
 Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:25 am
to your point above Jackal ^^^

Grainger and Sisson aren't just sitting at home even during a pandemic off-season. I saw numerous twitter images of Grainger working out with his personal QB coach along with several lower state QBs and Sisson did the same in Bama and an image was posted of him working out with Devlin Hodges.

That doesn't mean success but I like our odds that these two are making needed improvements and gaining experience. This is just a gut call - I think we will see Sisson emerge as a very good option QB.
PalaDad, gofurman liked this
 #33232  by The Jackal
 Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:08 am
AstroDin wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:25 am
to your point above Jackal ^^^

Grainger and Sisson aren't just sitting at home even during a pandemic off-season. I saw numerous twitter images of Grainger working out with his personal QB coach along with several lower state QBs and Sisson did the same in Bama and an image was posted of him working out with Devlin Hodges.

That doesn't mean success but I like our odds that these two are making needed improvements and gaining experience. This is just a gut call - I think we will see Sisson emerge as a very good option QB.
To be honest, at this stage of the "restart" under Clay Hendrix, it's time for the next step.

We have watched this team grow and develop the last few years. We knew there would be some hitches as the new staff basically took the team down to the studs and started to rebuild it.

I do think it is sort of "put up or shut up" time for Furman.
 #33287  by gofurman
 Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:34 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:08 am
AstroDin wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:25 am
to your point above Jackal ^^^

Grainger and Sisson aren't just sitting at home even during a pandemic off-season. I saw numerous twitter images of Grainger working out with his personal QB coach along with several lower state QBs and Sisson did the same in Bama and an image was posted of him working out with Devlin Hodges.

That doesn't mean success but I like our odds that these two are making needed improvements and gaining experience. This is just a gut call - I think we will see Sisson emerge as a very good option QB.
To be honest, at this stage of the "restart" under Clay Hendrix, it's time for the next step.

We have watched this team grow and develop the last few years. We knew there would be some hitches as the new staff basically took the team down to the studs and started to rebuild it.

I do think it is sort of "put up or shut up" time for Furman.
And I think CCH has "put up" VERY well. Two playoff appearances in his first few years and a SoCon title. I am very pleased

To Astro's point above I agree - a few other fans and I had this same discussion - that we have had to utilize a little more 'deception' than you would want for the first few years. We couldn't quite push the best teams (our OL v their DL) off the ball. This became apparent against Wofford a few times. I hope we are a little more physical this year on OL as everything starts with the big guys on the OL and DL !!

Jackal, good stat - "perfect runs through the SoCon are not common (2 times in last 10 seasons)."
Last edited by gofurman on Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 #33289  by The Jackal
 Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:04 pm
gofurman wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:34 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:08 am
AstroDin wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:25 am
to your point above Jackal ^^^

Grainger and Sisson aren't just sitting at home even during a pandemic off-season. I saw numerous twitter images of Grainger working out with his personal QB coach along with several lower state QBs and Sisson did the same in Bama and an image was posted of him working out with Devlin Hodges.

That doesn't mean success but I like our odds that these two are making needed improvements and gaining experience. This is just a gut call - I think we will see Sisson emerge as a very good option QB.
To be honest, at this stage of the "restart" under Clay Hendrix, it's time for the next step.

We have watched this team grow and develop the last few years. We knew there would be some hitches as the new staff basically took the team down to the studs and started to rebuild it.

I do think it is sort of "put up or shut up" time for Furman.
And I think CCH has "put up" VERY well. Two playoff appearances in his first few years and a SoCon title. I am very pleased

To Astro's point above I agree - a few other fans and I had this same discussion - that we have had to utilize a little more 'deception' than you would want for the first few years. We couldn't quite push the best teams (our OL v their DL) off the ball. This became apparent against Wofford a few times. I hope we are a little more physical this year on OL as everything starts with the big guys on the OL and DL !!

I realize I tend to be quite bullish, but I think the change in our defensive line will be noticeable.

For the first time in ages, I believe we will see Furman legitimately three deep across the defensive front. We will have rotational guys this season that probably would have started on many of our defensive lines the last 10 years.
 #33290  by gofurman
 Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:14 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:04 pm
gofurman wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:34 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:08 am
AstroDin wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:25 am
to your point above Jackal ^^^

Grainger and Sisson aren't just sitting at home even during a pandemic off-season. I saw numerous twitter images of Grainger working out with his personal QB coach along with several lower state QBs and Sisson did the same in Bama and an image was posted of him working out with Devlin Hodges.

That doesn't mean success but I like our odds that these two are making needed improvements and gaining experience. This is just a gut call - I think we will see Sisson emerge as a very good option QB.
To be honest, at this stage of the "restart" under Clay Hendrix, it's time for the next step.

We have watched this team grow and develop the last few years. We knew there would be some hitches as the new staff basically took the team down to the studs and started to rebuild it.

I do think it is sort of "put up or shut up" time for Furman.
And I think CCH has "put up" VERY well. Two playoff appearances in his first few years and a SoCon title. I am very pleased

To Astro's point above I agree - a few other fans and I had this same discussion - that we have had to utilize a little more 'deception' than you would want for the first few years. We couldn't quite push the best teams (our OL v their DL) off the ball. This became apparent against Wofford a few times. I hope we are a little more physical this year on OL as everything starts with the big guys on the OL and DL !!

I realize I tend to be quite bullish, but I think the change in our defensive line will be noticeable.

For the first time in ages, I believe we will see Furman legitimately three deep across the defensive front. We will have rotational guys this season that probably would have started on many of our defensive lines the last 10 years.
I hope you are right about the DL !! - I know I catch a little heck for my "realism" but many here have stopped lumping me with pessimists and given over (maybe I wore them down :lol: :lol: :lol: ) that I really am just being objective.

Like assessing our offense.. I don't think anyone can deny our RBs are more proven than our WRs etc. I truly hope our WR are great but I haven't seen it yet .. .as you said, most big WR games last year involved a guy named Gordon... or on D - I know McKoy and Hope etc are strong on the LB corps but I hope our DBs youth doesn't bite us. Hopefully it won't

Go Dins !
 #33291  by gofurman
 Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:27 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:39 am
It is November, and I guess it's a good time to talk some preseason predictions(?).

I'm bullish on the season. Furman ended last season as both the league's top offense and top defense. I think we will be better on both sides of the ball this season.

WCU (W) - WCU played two games this fall and didn't look particularly good. The defense gave up all sorts of yards to a not-very-good Eastern Kentucky team. I'd expect WCU to look a lot like WCU does most seasons - talented athletically, potential for some potent offensive games, not particularly physical, weak on defense.

@VMI (W) - The Keydets ran an almost middle-schoolish 5-3 defense against us this past fall. It didn't help. They are typically a scrappy bunch, but we should physically handle them. One concern might be inclement weather, playing in the Virginia mountains in February. We don't have a great track record in less-than-ideal conditions.

Samford (W) - Samford was no match for Furman's offense last season. They were steamrolled. The Hatch Attack ran a bunch of plays, but for short yardage and Furman's defense didn't expose the end zone. They return their same QB tandem, but, I think, are going to have to vastly elevate their play in Greenville.

@ETSU (W) - The Bucs are a bit of an enigma. Won the SoCon title two years ago. Finished last in 2019. They were still respectable on defense in 2019, but have graduated a few of their best players. They still feature two excellent running backs. I expect a scrappy team that Furman will need to put away late. Like VMI, I think the Bucs can hang around if you let them.

UTC (W) - I think this will be Furman's toughest test. The Mocs are well coached and sound defensively. They'll return most of their offense and nearly all of the offensive line. They have an excellent RB in Ford and WR in Nunnelly. QB is still a question mark. They looked good in their lone fall game against Western Kentucky (an FBS school) and should have beaten them. I would expect a four quarter fight.

@Mercer (W) - Cronic will have this team heading in the right direction, but I don't think he inherited a lot of depth from Lamb. I watched some of their games this fall. They look more disciplined, especially on defense, but are still a mixed bag at QB. I'd put Mercer in the same bag as teams like Samford and WCU right now. In a rebuilding season, we will be their biggest game and certainly biggest home game. They'll be up for knocking us off.

@the Citadel (W) - The Citadel on the road is always tricky. They run a unique offense and have essentially two playmakers on offense and a stud on defense we have to deal with. Last year's game was an abomination and easily the worst I've seen Furman play under Hendrix. If Furman plays it's game, we're the better team. Like WCU, they lost to a not-great Eastern Kentucky team at home. Under Thompson, though, the Bulldogs are typically good to upset at least one team a year. Last year it was us. This year let's make it not us.

Wofford (W) - The Terriers have been the final boss for Furman in its push back to national relevancy. They lost a ton of players off last year's team (something like nine of eleven starters on offense) and we are really going to see how Conklin and his staff handles the first season where most of Mike Ayers players are finally gone. Lot of unknowns for Wofford this year, but we'll see them in Greenville, we'll have just seen an option team, and we will know a great deal more about them by the season's last game.

There it is - a not-terribly-common 8-0 SoCon season en route to a playoff seed. Don't disappoint me.

Remember - there really is no backdoor for the SoCon this season. Win the conference, or go home. Every game is monumentally important. No off days.
Interested in everyone's thoughts.

List our games from toughest to easiest: (or at least two or three toughest)

Toughest
- Wofford. It's just a bugaboo thing. They dominated us last year. We couldn't complete enough passes... I believe they have the best record against CCH. I know they lost some great OL to the BIG. Two studs, Jeresaty and another went to play P5 ball (which says something about those OL!). Jeresaty won the best OL last year so that helps that he is gone. Beating us twice in 2017 still pisses me off.
- @ Citadel. I hate playing in Charleston. As Jackal said they are very tough there. Plus you throw in game 100 in the series and they might have a few fans and be jacked up...
- UTC. Good team. Glad we have them and Woff in Greenville. Running back Ford is a load.
- @ Mercer. Cronic can coach.
- @ ETSU. Decent team who scared us last year.


*I would be happy w 7-1 as I think that wins the SoCon ... I would be surprised if anyone went 8-0. Not saying it's impossible but it is improbable. Jackal noted it has only happened 2 of the last 10 years.

Nerd People who like math understand how truly hard it is to go undefeated: Say these are your chances in your 8 games (you are a FAVORITE in every game!!):
I will use us as an example going through our schedule starting w Western through to Woff:
WCU .80 chance we win
@VMI .92 chance we win
Sam .80 chance we win
@ETSU .70 chance we win
UTC .60 chance we win
@Mercer .75 chance we win
@Cit .60 chance we win
WOf .55 chance we win

Using those numbers (again, Favored in every game !) - we have a SIX PERCENT chance to go undefeated. SIX percent. would anyone say I really missed on one of those numbers above where I designate our chance to win a given game?

Or, if I even raise our chances to above what I think most would view for each game:

WCU .90 chance we win
@VMI .95 chance we win
Sam .90 chance we win
@ETSU .75 chance we win
UTC .70 chance we win
@Mercer .80 chance we win
@Cit .65 chance we win
WOf .65 chance we win

Even w those chances "raised" in each single game.. I think most people would say those odds are right or too high.. As a prohibitive Fav in each game in this math model.. we have only a FOURTEEN percent chance of going undefeated.. I hope we do, just showing how hard it is to do that.

Using them noggin' heads down the road who are about a 90% chance to win every game.. they lost to Syracuse in 2017 and ND this year and Pitt in 2016.

And then you have to throw in the evil COVID and missing players etc. That's the HUGE asterisk this year. I just hope we are all healthy over the Holidays and that everything is back to normal sometime in the spring w a vaccine...

Everyone stay healthy !!!- I mean everyone who reads this board and your families and the players etc
 #33296  by The Jackal
 Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:13 am
gofurman wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:14 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:04 pm
gofurman wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:34 pm
The Jackal wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:08 am
AstroDin wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:25 am
to your point above Jackal ^^^

Grainger and Sisson aren't just sitting at home even during a pandemic off-season. I saw numerous twitter images of Grainger working out with his personal QB coach along with several lower state QBs and Sisson did the same in Bama and an image was posted of him working out with Devlin Hodges.

That doesn't mean success but I like our odds that these two are making needed improvements and gaining experience. This is just a gut call - I think we will see Sisson emerge as a very good option QB.
To be honest, at this stage of the "restart" under Clay Hendrix, it's time for the next step.

We have watched this team grow and develop the last few years. We knew there would be some hitches as the new staff basically took the team down to the studs and started to rebuild it.

I do think it is sort of "put up or shut up" time for Furman.
And I think CCH has "put up" VERY well. Two playoff appearances in his first few years and a SoCon title. I am very pleased

To Astro's point above I agree - a few other fans and I had this same discussion - that we have had to utilize a little more 'deception' than you would want for the first few years. We couldn't quite push the best teams (our OL v their DL) off the ball. This became apparent against Wofford a few times. I hope we are a little more physical this year on OL as everything starts with the big guys on the OL and DL !!

I realize I tend to be quite bullish, but I think the change in our defensive line will be noticeable.

For the first time in ages, I believe we will see Furman legitimately three deep across the defensive front. We will have rotational guys this season that probably would have started on many of our defensive lines the last 10 years.
I hope you are right about the DL !! - I know I catch a little heck for my "realism" but many here have stopped lumping me with pessimists and given over (maybe I wore them down :lol: :lol: :lol: ) that I really am just being objective.

Like assessing our offense.. I don't think anyone can deny our RBs are more proven than our WRs etc. I truly hope our WR are great but I haven't seen it yet .. .as you said, most big WR games last year involved a guy named Gordon... or on D - I know McKoy and Hope etc are strong on the LB corps but I hope our DBs youth doesn't bite us. Hopefully it won't

Go Dins !

I think we will be just fine in the defensive backfield.

Blackshear started as a freshman over several seniors. He was an all-conference player last season and, I think, already one of the league's better CBs.

I'm not sure who else gets the majority of playing time at the other CB, but Darius Kearse is a senior and has close to 30 games under his belt. Cally Chizik played a bunch as a freshman. So two solid options there. While the group is young, there are also some impressive newcomers that you may see work into the rotation.

At safety, Dimarcus Clay seems like a logical choice as a starter at one of the spots. He's a senior and played in 35 games and started most all of last season.

I think the only real question mark is who starts at the other safety and which players work into the rotation. Coach Hendrix singled out Hugh Ryan and Kam Brinson this fall (he singled both those guys out last year as well in the preseason). Ryan backed up Okeh last year and played in every game. Brinson redshirted, but played in a few games at CB last season as well. Austin Jones is another guy that came highly regarded and missed time last season.
 #33298  by AstroDin
 Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:22 am
I had a thought this morning… thank you coffee.

For the last two seasons, Furman has had a few players graduate early from HS and enroll at Furman to participate in Spring practice. I wonder if any of the 12 commits are graduating early and if so can they play in 2021 part one?
 #33300  by The Jackal
 Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:14 am
AstroDin wrote:
Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:22 am
I had a thought this morning… thank you coffee.

For the last two seasons, Furman has had a few players graduate early from HS and enroll at Furman to participate in Spring practice. I wonder if any of the 12 commits are graduating early and if so can they play in 2021 part one?

Found this article from a West Virginia writer. https://wvsportsnow.com/ncaa-mid-year-e ... ll-season/

My take is that players could still enroll early, but could not play until the fall.

What I don't know is whether they could practice. Spring 2021 practices will, I assume, be more akin to practices in the fall, with game preparation the primary objective. That would be different than a typical spring practice, where I would assume fundamentals, install, and weight training are more the focus.

That said, I have no idea.
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