Parity

[fu77fan]

It is my opinion that there is going to be lots of parity in the conference this year , just like every other year. I think this year will be no different.
ETSU beat UNCG at UNCG
UNCG beat Wofford at Wofford
Furman edges UTC
Furman edges Mercer without their best player.
The top teams will be ETSU, Furman, Mercer , UNCG and Wofford, in no particular order. On a given night any of these teams could lose to
UTC , Sammy , Western or VMI. And the Citadel will pull a few upsets.
While I would like to see Furman dominate the league, I do not see us going 18-0 in the conference. I think the top team will have 3-4 losses.

[apaladin]

I agree more parity this year. Lsst year you had 3 teams in the regular season above everyone else and except for a rare occasion those 3 teams losses were to each other.

[stonemd]

I think parity is significantly down the last 2 years and this season is certainly tbd
I looked at the last 6 years and deviation from the mean record has been increasing since 2014
I think this represents decreased parity, but i need help from a statistician

These are the SOCON teams regular season conference records
for the last 6 years
14-15 16,15,12,9,8,7,6,6,6,5
15-16 15,14,11,11,10,10,8,4,4,3
16-17 14,14,14,10,10,9,8,4,4,3
17-18 15,14,13,11,11,8,6,5,4,3
18-19 18,15,13,13,7,6,6,4,4,4
19-20 16,15,13,11,10,10,8,4,3,0

all teams are equal Maximum parity would result in 10 way tie
9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9

Minimum parity would occur if teams always lost to superior teams
18,16,14,12,10,8,6,4,2,0
or if 5 teams always beat bottom 5 teams
14,14,14,14,14,4,4,4,4,4

Average deviation / Deviation squared
14-15 3.20 / 142
15-16 3.40 / 158
16-17 3.40 / 164
17-18 3.80 / 172
18-19 4.60 / 246
19-20 4.20 / 250
max parity 0.00 / 0
min parity1 5.00 / 330
min parity2 5.00 / 250

[tya1]

Any discussion of parity in the SoCon has to take into account the fact that The Citadel and VMI start from a much tougher position than the other schools and are usually near or at the bottom of the league. Add in the inevitable team or two having a tough year and you end up with the finishes stonemd posted.

[CharlieFU]

Wonder what it would look like if you took into account margins of victory. But I ain’t got that kind of time on my hands.

Our wins over UTC and Mercer, close games at the end, make it FEEL like more parity. That’s not a statistical analysis.