gofurman wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:45 pm
Southern Conference 2019 records - HAVE NOT Looked at schedules except ours so that would affect this some.. admit my ignorance:
WOFFORD (6-2) Wofford lost some key D Players but returns (like FU) the ENTIRE OL. That's huge on an ooption team that keeps getting in the playoffs. They have basically the entire offense back except 2 (KEY) RBs. I HATE that we travel to WOff. The record in Greenville is so much better - example- see 2017 v 2018 !!
FURMAN (5-3) IF our QB i splaying strong.. 6-2 is possible. IF Not, 4-4 is possible. I'll go 5-3 for now.
MERCER ((5-3) I am w Paul on this. Merecer is be scary - almost beat us with a gimpy QB last year and a RB who is becoming a beast/bear... Healthy QBs they probably win at Mercer last year. Glad this is in Greenville. Could see them getting us and/or Wofford easy.
SAMFORD (5-3) How much was Devlin and Gooden? But we have to travel to their place - i hate goin to Samford. Can we please beat these guys?
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CHATTY 6-6 (4-4) Just need coaching. Did lose TWO STUDS on DL though! big losses - my mind fails me.. what were their names? One got taken by NFL maybe? Two stars on DL?
CITADEL (4-4) They are on the rise and may upset some SoCon foes
ETSU (4-4) Decent team. Got lucky last year. How will new QB do?
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W. CAROLINA (3-5) Think they lost most of their OL... Adams is scary !
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VMI (1-7) I hope they get someone this year. So many close losses -0 just please not us...
to me 4 teams could win the SoCon - Woff, FU, Mercer, Samford. Yes, I am calling ETSU out on this one. I Not an insult. Just a lot of 50/50 breaks seem to go their way. Honestly, wonderful job by them to win Conference in 2018. I would put them a notch below the 4 I named in terms of odds to win conference. If they do it again this year or 2020 I am a believer... they will have found a coach and that's good for SoCon
Things change year to year. My general take in June is this:
Wofford - loses a lot on defense. The offense doesn't lose quite as much, though they graduate their top two running backs. The Terrier offense, though, generally complements its usually strong defense.
My question about Wofford is what happens if the defense takes a small step back defensively. The Terriers win a lot of close games and have recently struggled against teams that throw the ball well (both Samford and Furman beat them last year by double digits). Can their offense pick up that slack?
Mercer - has a lot of talent. They lose some key pieces on both sides to graduation, especially pass catchers. Riddle looks like the real deal, but does not have much game experience to this point to do a full evaluation. I like Devezin a lot at running back.
With Mercer, I think they need to find someone to give Devezin some help. I don't think he (or really any back) can sustain 40+ touches a game for an entire season (which is what he was doing against us in the final game of the year).
Also, Bobby Lamb is now in his 15th season as a SoCon head coach (9 with Furman, going on 6 with Mercer). During that span he's finished with 5 or 6 wins 9 different times including 7 straight seasons (not counting Mercer's single year in the Pioneer League). The last time Lamb coached a SoCon team to more than 6 wins was 2008 with Furman. Like most years, odds are that Mercer will sneak up and bite a team or two, but probably also lose a few head-scratchers.
Samford - Hatcher is a good recruiter, but they lose a ton of production. I don't think they are going to simply replace Hodges, McKnight, and Gooden with the next man up. Gooden, for instance, just about single-handedly beat Furman this year. Samford played without Gooden a few weeks later against the Citadel, and the cadets ran all over that defense.
Samford is going to have to find some guys. They aren't going to reinvent themselves at this stage, but are going to have figure out how to win with new faces. They had gobs of talent in 2018 and limped to a disappointing finish.
ETSU - I believe the Bucs lose both of their QBs from 2018, so they'll be breaking in new players there. I have constantly underestimated ETSU, and probably will again this season. The Bucs played 12 games in 2018, and trailed at some point in 8 of them. They caught lightening in a bottle a few times, I think, but it is going to be hard to sustain another title run when having to play comeback kids every week.
WCU - It's no secret that I think Tyrie Adams is the best QB in the league. I've loved watching him play. WCU had another dissapointing season last year in spite of him.
When you look at the numbers, though, WCU is among the conference leaders in just about everything. If they ever - and that is a big if - figure out a defense they could be a big surprise in the conference. They'll score points, most likely, as long as Adams is healthy. The question is - and has always been - whether they can keep other teams from scoring.