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Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:30 pm
by purplehorse
In the event of a three-way tie, the won-loss records of the tied teams against each other is first considered (i.e., head to head concept). If the teams are still tied, then each team’s record against the highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered. If the tie is still not broken, the teams’ won-loss record against the next highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered and so on down the line until the tie is broken. If the tie is still not broken, the team with the fewest points allowed among the tied teams shall be considered. If this does not resolve the tie, then the automatic bid will be determined by a random draw conducted by the Commissioner;
C. In the event of multiple ties after a three-way tie, the same procedure as used to break a three- way tie will be applied until the tie is broken.


I would interpret this as with a 3 way tie-ETSU, Wofford and FU-since we are all 1-1 against each other-that the winner would be who had the best record against other teams going down the line-which I do not think breaks the tie. By my calculations, please correct me if I am wrong, if we beat Mercer and hold them to 14 points we would get the automatic bid. Help me out here, am I correct? Wofford-175 points allowed, thru 8 games, ETSU-179 thru 7, FU 159 thru 7 games.

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:50 am
by soconjohn
I thought it was combined points surrendered against the other two, but Furman would lead in one scenario should ETSU lose and would be leading in the other if they held Mercer to less than 16 points.

Furman surrendered 43 combined pts to ETSU and Wofford
ETSU surrendered 57 points to Furman and Wofford
Wofford surrendered 51 points to ETSU and Furman

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:16 pm
by fufanatic
purplehorse wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:30 pm
In the event of a three-way tie, the won-loss records of the tied teams against each other is first considered (i.e., head to head concept). If the teams are still tied, then each team’s record against the highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered. If the tie is still not broken, the teams’ won-loss record against the next highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered and so on down the line until the tie is broken. If the tie is still not broken, the team with the fewest points allowed among the tied teams shall be considered. If this does not resolve the tie, then the automatic bid will be determined by a random draw conducted by the Commissioner;
C. In the event of multiple ties after a three-way tie, the same procedure as used to break a three- way tie will be applied until the tie is broken.


I would interpret this as with a 3 way tie-ETSU, Wofford and FU-since we are all 1-1 against each other-that the winner would be who had the best record against other teams going down the line-which I do not think breaks the tie. By my calculations, please correct me if I am wrong, if we beat Mercer and hold them to 14 points we would get the automatic bid. Help me out here, am I correct? Wofford-175 points allowed, thru 8 games, ETSU-179 thru 7, FU 159 thru 7 games.
I believe you are correct, but man it's confusing. And we still don't really know if it means the points allowed against just the other two teams or all SoCon opponents.

First and foremost, we need to win and we need Samford to beat ETSU, which triggers a long series of tiebreakers between ETSU, Wofford and Furman.

In the above scenario, ETSU, Wofford and Furman would all be 1-1 against each other and all lost to Samford. At that point it turns to the next team on the list, which then gets confusing because Mercer, Chattanooga and The Citadel would all be 4-4. Mercer beat Chattanooga and lost to The Citadel. The Citadel lost to Chattanooga and beat Mercer. Chattanooga beat The Citadel and lost to Mercer. So I don't know who would be in the fifth spot because I don't know how those tiebreakers work. But ETSU, Wofford and Furman are all 3-0 against those teams. All three would also be 2-0 against Western and VMI. So none of those tiebreakers would help. Remarkable stuff.

So we keep going ... if it's total points allowed among just ETSU, Wofford and Furman games, it would be:

Furman: 43 points allowed
Wofford: 51 points allowed
ETSU: 57 points allowed

So Furman gets the auto bid.

If it's overall, ETSU has allowed 179, Wofford 175 and Furman 159 with one game to go. So need to hold Mercer to 15 or under to get auto bid or 16 to trigger I guess a coin flip by the commissioner between Wofford and Furman. I guess both head coaches would meet in person for coin toss?

Yikes.

Beat Mercer.

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:30 pm
by gofurman
Beat mercer. Please.

Here is the guy who has done remarkably well at picking FCS playoff -

http://nobowls.com

He has us as first team out but we were never listed until this week. His is a listing of ‘if the season ended today’. I if it ended this week he thinks we are first team out. I have to think if we beat mercer that puts us in. People above us will lose

He has picked 169 of the 180 playoff teams in last decade. That’s his specialty. He had us in last year.

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:45 pm
by The Jackal
gofurman wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:30 pm
Beat mercer. Please.

Here is the guy who has done remarkably well at picking FCS playoff -

http://nobowls.com

He has us as first team out but we were never listed until this week. His is a listing of ‘if the season ended today’. I if it ended this week he thinks we are first team out. I have to think if we beat mercer that puts us in. People above us will lose

Hard to know what to do with Furman's canceled game against Colgate.

At bottom, if we don't make the post season, we have no one to blame but ourselves. Our complete meltdown in the fourth quarter against ETSU was incredibly costly.

Furman can only handle its business on Saturday. Beat Mercer and then let everything else fall out.

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:50 pm
by paladinduece
It is overall so need a monster defensive game this week

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:56 pm
by fufanatic
Say we give up 17 or more points but win ... would we rather have ETSU win so we finish in tie for second place with tiebreaker over Wofford or would we rather be co-champions with two teams and be the clear third option with Wofford getting the auto and ETSU sitting at 8-3 with a win over us? Something tells me the SoCon isn't getting three teams so I guess I would choose the former and hope the committee gives us edge over Wofford because of head-to-head. The former would also not give us a conference championship, while the latter would mean a title, but potentially no playoffs.

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:18 pm
by gofurman
Either way winning is the answer (Capt. obvious)

Win for
A) Winning season
B) seniors beat all rivals in Wofford, Citadel and Mercer (mercer is probably the least rival - more a Bobby Lamb thing)
C). Possible playoff ! maybe with just a Win over Mercer. Don't worry about points just win!
D). Possible SoCon Champion. If we win and Samford win too then we are SoCon champs along w Wofford and ETSU. May not get auto bid but you all are SoCon champs !!!

Just beat Mercer. That's all we probably need to do

Beat mercer guys !!!

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:12 pm
by FUBeAR
paladinduece wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:50 pm
It is overall so need a monster defensive game this week
If Mercer’s Offense remains as limited as it has been since the backup QB & starting RB were injured in the 1st quarter (2nd series) @ Wofford and then the 2nd-best WR was injured vs. ETSU, Kicking the ball out of the end zone on Kickoffs & Punting the ball high (& covering) should be sufficient to keep Mercer’s points down.

On the other hand, don’t allow Mercer’s Defensive Stats to fool you. When their D plays up to their potential (which they haven’t for all 4 quarters in many games this season), they can shut down a very good Offense. And they can be very opportunistic - took balls away at the goal line from Chatt & ETSU RB’s who had broken long runs in the past 2 weeks, as examples.

Despite the very reasonable possibility that FU’s O could blow this one open, I’d still bet the under...unless Mercer gets their injured Players back & they are ‘properly tuned.’ In that event, we could have a FUN ballgame.

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:23 pm
by gofurman
FUBeAR wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:12 pm
paladinduece wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:50 pm
It is overall so need a monster defensive game this week
If Mercer’s Offense remains as limited as it has been since the backup QB & starting RB were injured in the 1st quarter (2nd series) @ Wofford and then the 2nd-best WR was injured vs. ETSU, Kicking the ball out of the end zone on Kickoffs & Punting the ball high (& covering) should be sufficient to keep Mercer’s points down.

On the other hand, don’t allow Mercer’s Defensive Stats to fool you. When their D plays up to their potential (which they haven’t for all 4 quarters in many games this season), they can shut down a very good Offense. And they can be very opportunistic - took balls away at the goal line from Chatt & ETSU RB’s who had broken long runs in the past 2 weeks, as examples.

Despite the very reasonable possibility that FU’s O could blow this one open, I’d still bet the under...unless Mercer gets their injured Players back & they are ‘properly tuned.’ In that event, we could have a FUN ballgame.
FUBeAR. NOT askin' if they are back vs us.

Just asking did any of the injured guys play vs Chatt? You would know. And I am taking the lazy way

Q2. Is this correct? Starting QB Riddle broke his collarbone and hasn't played since September?
Next QB - socon freshman of year- Riley hurt ankle vs Wofford ? Was that it?
Tee Mitchell ankle sprain?
What's the guy's name that's the great athlete Mercer has you were talking about w a concussion?

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:33 pm
by apaladin
As far as playoff chances the worst thing is for WC to get the auto bid.

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:00 pm
by FUBeAR
gofurman wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:23 pm
FUBeAR wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:12 pm
paladinduece wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:50 pm
It is overall so need a monster defensive game this week
If Mercer’s Offense remains as limited as it has been since the backup QB & starting RB were injured in the 1st quarter (2nd series) @ Wofford and then the 2nd-best WR was injured vs. ETSU, Kicking the ball out of the end zone on Kickoffs & Punting the ball high (& covering) should be sufficient to keep Mercer’s points down.

On the other hand, don’t allow Mercer’s Defensive Stats to fool you. When their D plays up to their potential (which they haven’t for all 4 quarters in many games this season), they can shut down a very good Offense. And they can be very opportunistic - took balls away at the goal line from Chatt & ETSU RB’s who had broken long runs in the past 2 weeks, as examples.

Despite the very reasonable possibility that FU’s O could blow this one open, I’d still bet the under...unless Mercer gets their injured Players back & they are ‘properly tuned.’ In that event, we could have a FUN ballgame.
FUBeAR. NOT askin' if they are back vs us.

Just asking did any of the injured guys play vs Chatt? You would know. And I am taking the lazy way

Q2. Is this correct? Starting QB Riddle broke his collarbone and hasn't played since September?
Next QB - socon freshman of year- Riley hurt ankle vs Wofford ? Was that it?
Tee Mitchell ankle sprain?
What's the guy's name that's the great athlete Mercer has you were talking about w a concussion?
Q1 - https://mercerbears.com/documents/2018/ ... _Stats.pdf

Q2 - sure...something like that

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:12 pm
by gofurman
FUBeAR wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:00 pm
gofurman wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:23 pm
FUBeAR wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:12 pm
paladinduece wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:50 pm
It is overall so need a monster defensive game this week
If Mercer’s Offense remains as limited as it has been since the backup QB & starting RB were injured in the 1st quarter (2nd series) @ Wofford and then the 2nd-best WR was injured vs. ETSU, Kicking the ball out of the end zone on Kickoffs & Punting the ball high (& covering) should be sufficient to keep Mercer’s points down.

On the other hand, don’t allow Mercer’s Defensive Stats to fool you. When their D plays up to their potential (which they haven’t for all 4 quarters in many games this season), they can shut down a very good Offense. And they can be very opportunistic - took balls away at the goal line from Chatt & ETSU RB’s who had broken long runs in the past 2 weeks, as examples.

Despite the very reasonable possibility that FU’s O could blow this one open, I’d still bet the under...unless Mercer gets their injured Players back & they are ‘properly tuned.’ In that event, we could have a FUN ballgame.
FUBeAR. NOT askin' if they are back vs us.

Just asking did any of the injured guys play vs Chatt? You would know. And I am taking the lazy way

Q2. Is this correct? Starting QB Riddle broke his collarbone and hasn't played since September?
Next QB - socon freshman of year- Riley hurt ankle vs Wofford ? Was that it?
Tee Mitchell ankle sprain?
What's the guy's name that's the great athlete Mercer has you were talking about w a concussion?
Q1 - https://mercerbears.com/documents/2018/ ... _Stats.pdf

Q2 - sure...something like that
Q2 - BEAR, I am not asking super intel.. just the name of the guy you said was a great athlete so I would know to look and see IF he is playing in the game. I am just asking the kids NAME

It's easy for me to see who is at QB when the game starts.. but I also wanted to see both if the kid you talked about was playing .. and if so you said to watch him that he was explosive - how can I watch him if I don't know his name?>

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:28 pm
by FUBeAR
gofurman wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:12 pm
FUBeAR wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:00 pm
gofurman wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:23 pm
FUBeAR wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:12 pm
paladinduece wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:50 pm
It is overall so need a monster defensive game this week
If Mercer’s Offense remains as limited as it has been since the backup QB & starting RB were injured in the 1st quarter (2nd series) @ Wofford and then the 2nd-best WR was injured vs. ETSU, Kicking the ball out of the end zone on Kickoffs & Punting the ball high (& covering) should be sufficient to keep Mercer’s points down.

On the other hand, don’t allow Mercer’s Defensive Stats to fool you. When their D plays up to their potential (which they haven’t for all 4 quarters in many games this season), they can shut down a very good Offense. And they can be very opportunistic - took balls away at the goal line from Chatt & ETSU RB’s who had broken long runs in the past 2 weeks, as examples.

Despite the very reasonable possibility that FU’s O could blow this one open, I’d still bet the under...unless Mercer gets their injured Players back & they are ‘properly tuned.’ In that event, we could have a FUN ballgame.
FUBeAR. NOT askin' if they are back vs us.

Just asking did any of the injured guys play vs Chatt? You would know. And I am taking the lazy way

Q2. Is this correct? Starting QB Riddle broke his collarbone and hasn't played since September?
Next QB - socon freshman of year- Riley hurt ankle vs Wofford ? Was that it?
Tee Mitchell ankle sprain?
What's the guy's name that's the great athlete Mercer has you were talking about w a concussion?
Q1 - https://mercerbears.com/documents/2018/ ... _Stats.pdf

Q2 - sure...something like that
Q2 - BEAR, I am not asking super intel.. just the name of the guy you said was a great athlete so I would know to look and see IF he is playing in the game. I am just asking the kids NAME

It's easy for me to see who is at QB when the game starts.. but I also wanted to see both if the kid you talked about was playing .. and if so you said to watch him that he was explosive - how can I watch him if I don't know his name?>
https://mercerbears.com/cumestats.aspx?path=football

Re: Our Playoff Chances

PostPosted:Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:57 pm
by Paul C
Furman opens -8 (o/u 56.5)

And Samford opens -10 at ETSU