Playoffs
PostPosted:Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:05 pm
Sacramento State jumping on North Dakota early.
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I suppose one positive point is the SoCon is guaranteed to get a team in the round of 8.
Yeah. Rough for Mercer and the SoCon this weekend. Probably 1 moves on.FUBeAR wrote: ↑Sun Nov 26, 2023 9:58 pmIt would undoubtedly be as Luke Jackson was, a "WORLD-SHAKER" .... but, to be honest, because of the triple-stacked deck and the way the system is gamed, those 2 events both occurring are highly unlikely...pretty much the same odds as FUBeAR winning PowerBall.
Since FUBeAR did this research last summer and just opened the file for another reason, he thought he would provide some historical data that may interest peeps posting in this thread...
PART 1
In the 9 prior Playoffs that have utilized the 24 Team / 8 Seeds (with home games AND 1 week rests prior), the record of #1 Seeds vs. Unseeded Opponents is:
#1 Seeds = 9 WINS
Unseeded = 9 L's
The Average Score in these matchups has been #1 Seed ~42 - Unseeded Team ~16; a margin of victory of ~26 points.
In the 9 #1 Seed Wins, only 2 times has the margin of victory been less than double digits. In 2021, unseeded Incarnate Word (Southland) lost to #1 Seed Sam Houston State (WAC) by a TD 49-42. In 2015, unseeded Chattanooga (SoCon) almost pulled the upset, before falling 41-35 to Jacksonville State (OVC).
PART II
If you are ONLY betting on Part II of those stated conditions, the odds, as are Katniss Everdeen's, are much more in your favor...
#7 Seeds actually have a WINNING record (4-3) over #2 Seeds in this structure.
NDSU (MVFC) is responsible for all of the #2 Seed over #7 Seed Wins. It seems Bison are like 3 or 4 year locusts invading the South (except they were always Home...of course) ... 2014 - 39-32 over Coastal Carolina (Big South), 2017 - 42-10 over Wofford (SoCon), and 2021 - 27-3 over ETSU (SoCon).
#7 Seeds out of the CAA are responsible for 3 of the 4 upsets over #2 Seeds. In 2013, Towson (CAA) beat Eastern Illinois (OVC) 49-39. In 2015, Richmond (CAA) defeated Illinois State (MVFC) 39-27, and in 2018, Maine (CAA) bested Weber State (Big Sky) 23-18. Our good friends from Incarnate Word (Southland), in 2022, are responsible for getting that 4-3 edge as they edged out Sacramento State (Big Sky) in a defensive struggle 66-63.
So...if Montana gets by Delaware and we whip Chatt, as planned, history is on our side.
Unfortunately, the Mercer Bears, historically-speaking, are FUATT'd. That said, because FUBeAR is also a Mercer Fan, he must say here, without hesitation, he LOVES this draw for Mercer. Honestly.
Part Pre-Part II (just so you know...)
In the 9 prior Playoffs that have utilized the 24 Team / 8 Seeds (with home games AND 1 week rests prior), the record of #7 Seeds vs. Unseeded Opponents is:
#7 Seeds = 7 WINS & 2 L's
Unseeded = 2 WINS & 7 L's (In 2016, unseeded Northern Iowa (MVFC) defeated #7 Seed SDSU (MVFC) 13-10. In 2019, unseeded Richmond (CAA) defeated #7 Seed North Dakota (MVFC) 27-24.)
The Average Score in the #7 Seed Wins has been ~41-~23; a margin of victory of ~18 points.
The Average Score in the #7 Seed Losses has been ~20-~17 (still in favor of the #7 Seeds); a margin of victory of ~3 points (for the unseeded Teams; both games were 3 point unseeded upset wins).
In the 7 #7 Seed Wins, only 2 times has the margin of victory been less than double digits. Last year, in 2022, unseeded Furman (SoCon) lost to #7 Seed Incarnate Word (Southland) 41-38. In 2021, unseeded Kennesaw (Big South) almost pulled the upset, before falling 32-31 to #7 ETSU (SoCon).