Playoff Picture

[apaladin]

Teams listed as Auto bid either have the bid in hand or is the most likely to win it.
1. N. Dakota St. 11-0 MVC Auto bid
2. JMU 10-1 CAA Auto bid
3. Montana 9-2 Big Sky Auto bid
4. Sac. St 8-3 Big Sky At large
5. S.Dakota St. 8-3 MVC At large
6. Illinois St. 8-3 MVC At large
7. Weber St. 8-3 Big Sky At large
8. Montana St. 8-3 Big Sky At large
9. Kennesaw St. 9-2 Big South At large
10. Northern Iowa 7-4 MVC At-large
11. Central Arkansas 8-3 SLC Auto bid
12. Monmouth 9-2 Big South Auto bid
13. Florida A&M Ineligible-NCAA violations
14. Villanova 8-3 CAA At-Large
15. Furman Bubble
16. SE Mo. St 8-3 Bubble
17. Wofford 7-3 SoCon Auto bid
18. C. Conn. St 10-1 NEC Auto bid
19. Austin Peay 8-3 OVC Auto bid
20. Towson 7-4 Bubble
21. Dartmouth-non participant
22. SE Louisiana 7-3
23. Nicholls 7-4
24. NC A&T
25. So. Illinois 7-4 Plays N. Dak. St..
Summary:
10-Auto bida: #1, #2, #3, #11, #12, #17, #18, #19, plus unranked Patriot and Pioneer champs
14-At large-IN- #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9 #10, #14
Bubble:
#15 Furman hosts Point
#16 SE Mo. St. hosts Murray St.
#20 Towson hosts Elon-IN with win CAA bias
#22 SE Louisiana hosts Nicholls-IN with win over #23
#23 Nicholls at SE Louisiana-Prolly still in with loss(SLC Commish is committee chair)
#24 NC A&T-Celebration bowl
#25 So. Illinois prolly still in with loss to N. Dakota St. MVC bias.

With this poll FU should be the first bubble team to be in but with chair from the SLC and bias for the CAA, MVC, Big Sky you never know. They would have to jump some teams from outside the top 25 to not include all of the bubble teams currently in the top 25. The committee has always followed the last coaches poll almost to a tee but with FU's luck they won't this year.

[gofurman]

Teams listed as Auto bid either have the bid in hand or is the most likely to win it.
1. N. Dakota St. 11-0 MVC Auto bid
2. JMU 10-1 CAA Auto bid
3. Montana 9-2 Big Sky Auto bid
4. Sac. St 8-3 Big Sky At large
5. S.Dakota St. 8-3 MVC At large
6. Illinois St. 8-3 MVC At large
7. Weber St. 8-3 Big Sky At large
8. Montana St. 8-3 Big Sky At large
9. Kennesaw St. 9-2 Big South At large
10. Northern Iowa 7-4 MVC At-large
11. Central Arkansas 8-3 SLC Auto bid
12. Monmouth 9-2 Big South Auto bid
13. Florida A&M Ineligible-NCAA violations
14. Villanova 8-3 CAA At-Large
15. Furman Bubble
16. SE Mo. St 8-3 Bubble
17. Wofford 7-3 SoCon Auto bid
18. C. Conn. St 10-1 NEC Auto bid
19. Austin Peay 8-3 OVC Auto bid
20. Towson 7-4 Bubble
21. Dartmouth-non participant
22. SE Louisiana 7-3
23. Nicholls 7-4
24. NC A&T goin’ to celebration bowl?
25. So. Illinois 7-4 Plays N. Dak. St..


Summary:
10-Auto bida: #1, #2, #3, #11, #12, #17, #18, #19, plus unranked Patriot and Pioneer champs
14-At large-IN- #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9 #10, #14
Bubble:
#15 Furman hosts Point
#16 SE Mo. St. hosts Murray St.
#20 Towson hosts Elon-IN with win CAA bias
#22 SE Louisiana hosts Nicholls-IN with win over #23
#23 Nicholls at SE Louisiana-Prolly still in with loss(SLC Commish is committee chair)
#24 NC A&T-Celebration bowl
#25 So. Illinois prolly still in with loss to N. Dakota St. MVC bias.

With this poll FU should be the first bubble team to be in but with chair from the SLC and bias for the CAA, MVC, Big Sky you never know. They would have to jump some teams from outside the top 25 to not include all of the bubble teams currently in the top 25. The committee has always followed the last coaches poll almost to a tee but with FU's luck they won't this year.

Just for my purposes I am bolding teams that aren’t eligible. Helps my old eyes etc. were 22 or so in 2017. We are ranked 15 -17 now. To not take us would be quite a travesty. You would have to pull some 7-5 ONE FBS loss teams and others ranked 25th

Wonder our OOC next year ??? I HATE these two FBS years. You can’t force your way in to playoffs but you sure can schedule yourself out of playoffs. Which isn’t fair to the kids honestly. “Oh my school wanted money so they made it harder for me to make playoffs than other schools”

Next year should be a regular 11 game year w one FBS. Who are two FCS? NC A&T? Who else?

[apaladin]

NC A&T is not until 2021. The only known OOC next year is Tennessee. I am hoping the CSU game was a one time game and we don't go there.

[cavedweller2]

I heard we go to Erskine and Anderson University next year.

[MNORM]

Teams listed as Auto bid either have the bid in hand or is the most likely to win it.
1. N. Dakota St. 11-0 MVC Auto bid
2. JMU 10-1 CAA Auto bid
3. Montana 9-2 Big Sky Auto bid
4. Sac. St 8-3 Big Sky At large
5. S.Dakota St. 8-3 MVC At large
6. Illinois St. 8-3 MVC At large
7. Weber St. 8-3 Big Sky At large
8. Montana St. 8-3 Big Sky At large
9. Kennesaw St. 9-2 Big South At large
10. Northern Iowa 7-4 MVC At-large
11. Central Arkansas 8-3 SLC Auto bid
12. Monmouth 9-2 Big South Auto bid
13. Florida A&M Ineligible-NCAA violations
14. Villanova 8-3 CAA At-Large
15. Furman Bubble
16. SE Mo. St 8-3 Bubble
17. Wofford 7-3 SoCon Auto bid
18. C. Conn. St 10-1 NEC Auto bid
19. Austin Peay 8-3 OVC Auto bid
20. Towson 7-4 Bubble
21. Dartmouth-non participant
22. SE Louisiana 7-3
23. Nicholls 7-4
24. NC A&T goin’ to celebration bowl?
25. So. Illinois 7-4 Plays N. Dak. St..


Summary:
10-Auto bida: #1, #2, #3, #11, #12, #17, #18, #19, plus unranked Patriot and Pioneer champs
14-At large-IN- #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9 #10, #14
Bubble:
#15 Furman hosts Point
#16 SE Mo. St. hosts Murray St.
#20 Towson hosts Elon-IN with win CAA bias
#22 SE Louisiana hosts Nicholls-IN with win over #23
#23 Nicholls at SE Louisiana-Prolly still in with loss(SLC Commish is committee chair)
#24 NC A&T-Celebration bowl
#25 So. Illinois prolly still in with loss to N. Dakota St. MVC bias.

With this poll FU should be the first bubble team to be in but with chair from the SLC and bias for the CAA, MVC, Big Sky you never know. They would have to jump some teams from outside the top 25 to not include all of the bubble teams currently in the top 25. The committee has always followed the last coaches poll almost to a tee but with FU's luck they won't this year.

Just for my purposes I am bolding teams that aren’t eligible. Helps my old eyes etc. were 22 or so in 2017. We are ranked 15 -17 now. To not take us would be quite a travesty. You would have to pull some 7-5 ONE FBS loss teams and others ranked 25th

Wonder our OOC next year ??? I HATE these two FBS years. You can’t force your way in to playoffs but you sure can schedule yourself out of playoffs. Which isn’t fair to the kids honestly. “Oh my school wanted money so they made it harder for me to make playoffs than other schools”

Next year should be a regular 11 game year w one FBS. Who are two FCS? NC A&T? Who else?

2017:
We were ranked 25th in final regular season Coaches Poll. We were ranked 22nd in final regular season STATS Poll. We didn't crack the Top 25 until Week 11 in the Coaches and Week 9 in the STATS. We received an at-large bid (IMHO) because of the momentum we had in the second half of the season (and despite losing the last game to Samford).

2018:
Dropped out of the polls after Week 2 and never returned. We did not get an at-large bid.

2019:
Furman has never been ranked outside of the Top 20, the entire season, in either poll. We've also been ranked in the Top 10 for multiple weeks in both polls.

Beat Point and see where the chips fall.

[apaladin]

One correction. Central Arkansas will not get the Southland auto bid. Currently they are in a 3 way tie with SE Louisiana and Nichols. SELA and Nichols play Thursday night for the auto bid. Need to pull for SE LA because that would leave Nicholls with a 7-5 record. Both of these teams will prolly still get in because the SLC commish is chair of the committee.
Why is Central Arkansas ranked so high? They lost to Nicholls 34-14 and to SE LA 34-0. So the other 2 co-leaders have outscored Central Arkansas 68-14. I guess they are still riding their opening day win over FBS WKU.

[gofurman]

Teams listed as Auto bid either have the bid in hand or is the most likely to win it.
1. N. Dakota St. 11-0 MVC Auto bid
2. JMU 10-1 CAA Auto bid
3. Montana 9-2 Big Sky Auto bid
4. Sac. St 8-3 Big Sky At large
5. S.Dakota St. 8-3 MVC At large
6. Illinois St. 8-3 MVC At large
7. Weber St. 8-3 Big Sky At large
8. Montana St. 8-3 Big Sky At large
9. Kennesaw St. 9-2 Big South At large
10. Northern Iowa 7-4 MVC At-large
11. Central Arkansas 8-3 SLC Auto bid
12. Monmouth 9-2 Big South Auto bid
13. Florida A&M Ineligible-NCAA violations
14. Villanova 8-3 CAA At-Large
15. Furman Bubble
16. SE Mo. St 8-3 Bubble
17. Wofford 7-3 SoCon Auto bid
18. C. Conn. St 10-1 NEC Auto bid
19. Austin Peay 8-3 OVC Auto bid
20. Towson 7-4 Bubble
21. Dartmouth-non participant
22. SE Louisiana 7-3
23. Nicholls 7-4
24. NC A&T goin’ to celebration bowl?
25. So. Illinois 7-4 Plays N. Dak. St..


Summary:
10-Auto bida: #1, #2, #3, #11, #12, #17, #18, #19, plus unranked Patriot and Pioneer champs
14-At large-IN- #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9 #10, #14
Bubble:
#15 Furman hosts Point
#16 SE Mo. St. hosts Murray St.
#20 Towson hosts Elon-IN with win CAA bias
#22 SE Louisiana hosts Nicholls-IN with win over #23
#23 Nicholls at SE Louisiana-Prolly still in with loss(SLC Commish is committee chair)
#24 NC A&T-Celebration bowl
#25 So. Illinois prolly still in with loss to N. Dakota St. MVC bias.

With this poll FU should be the first bubble team to be in but with chair from the SLC and bias for the CAA, MVC, Big Sky you never know. They would have to jump some teams from outside the top 25 to not include all of the bubble teams currently in the top 25. The committee has always followed the last coaches poll almost to a tee but with FU's luck they won't this year.

Just for my purposes I am bolding teams that aren’t eligible. Helps my old eyes etc. were 22 or so in 2017. We are ranked 15 -17 now. To not take us would be quite a travesty. You would have to pull some 7-5 ONE FBS loss teams and others ranked 25th

Wonder our OOC next year ??? I HATE these two FBS years. You can’t force your way in to playoffs but you sure can schedule yourself out of playoffs. Which isn’t fair to the kids honestly. “Oh my school wanted money so they made it harder for me to make playoffs than other schools”

Next year should be a regular 11 game year w one FBS. Who are two FCS? NC A&T? Who else?

2017:
We were ranked 25th in final regular season Coaches Poll. We were ranked 22nd in final regular season STATS Poll. We didn't crack the Top 25 until Week 11 in the Coaches and Week 9 in the STATS. We received an at-large bid (IMHO) because of the momentum we had in the second half of the season (and despite losing the last game to Samford).

2018:
Dropped out of the polls after Week 2 and never returned. We did not get an at-large bid.

2019:
Furman has never been ranked outside of the Top 20, the entire season, in either poll. We've also been ranked in the Top 10 for multiple weeks in both polls.

Beat Point and see where the chips fall.

Good post MNORM And this is why I could never get my head around the posts that said only one SoCon team is goin this year. Guess we will find out. We will then have this year to add to your good 2017 -2019 data points and hopefully we can all better understand the process ( glad we are relevant enough to concern ourselves w process !!!)

[Paul C]

I think we are in. Most likely round 1 opponents Kennesaw St or Austin Peay based on geography.

[gofurman]

I think we are in. Most likely round 1 opponents Kennesaw St or Austin Peay based on geography.

Looking back at our scores I think I would prefer AustinP vs a running team. But let’s just get in. On other hand AGS has a few big talkers from KSU. Would live to win that but HATE to lose and the way we seem to play recently worries me some vs a KSU. Most years I would LOVE that matchup but this year the two old option teams of yore gave us fits. Right now we seem better and quicker vs pass teams than downhill run teams. Despite that VMI and Sam beat Citadel and SC State and Sam beat Woff. Woff is a little different to me. They quit doing what wasn’t working and went back to basic runnin’ which their OL is built for. And have run off 9 straight FCS wins. Citadel is a slight mystery in an enigma.
Still, we clearly had our roughest outings vs the run based teams. No doubt there. So I’d take AustinP given my druthers. Couldn’t take the ribbing on AGS from KSU just because we seem less in tune w beating run teams this year.

[DungeonRealm]

I'll take us getting to 8-4 and getting the chance to play anybody, anywhere

[gofurman]

The committee says they reference the COACHES poll but AGS poll has been the best predictor of at-large bids for several years And right now AGS has us at 16

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showth ... -predictor

[fufanatic]

The committee says they reference the COACHES poll but AGS poll has been the best predictor of at-large bids for several years And right now AGS has us at 16

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showth ... -predictor

I'm still not as confident as some, but it would be downright stunning for a team that's been ranked in the top 25 all year and was twice ranked in the top 10 - most recently as last week - to be left out of the field entirely, especially considering who our losses are to.

[apaladin]

The committee says they reference the COACHES poll but AGS poll has been the best predictor of at-large bids for several years And right now AGS has us at 16

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showth ... -predictor

I'm still not as confident as some, but it would be downright stunning for a team that's been ranked in the top 25 all year and was twice ranked in the top 10 - most recently as last week - to be left out of the field entirely, especially considering who our losses are to.

I think it would be better for WC to win Saturday vs. Citadel. WC is in. We don't need for Citadel to even be in consideration. They would have head to head vs. FU plus wins over GT and WC. They would be 7-5.

[fufanatic]

The committee says they reference the COACHES poll but AGS poll has been the best predictor of at-large bids for several years And right now AGS has us at 16

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showth ... -predictor

I'm still not as confident as some, but it would be downright stunning for a team that's been ranked in the top 25 all year and was twice ranked in the top 10 - most recently as last week - to be left out of the field entirely, especially considering who our losses are to.

I think it would be better for WC to win Saturday vs. Citadel. WC is in. We don't need for Citadel to even be in consideration. They would have head to head vs. FU plus wins over GT and WC. They would be 7-5.

I think I agree. In a perfect world we would get a share of title and a playoff berth, but me personally I would choose the playoff berth if I had the option of only one. And The Citadel being officially out at 6-6 would help at least a little in Furman's quest for the playoffs. I'm also pulling hard for SE Louisiana against Nicholls Thursday night and throw in Incarnate Word vs. Central Arkansas on Friday for good measure. I think CA is probably in regardless of this game as they have an FBS win, no non-FCS wins, and a quality win over Austin Peay, but you never know. Also I'm pulling for Kentucky over UT Martin, Stony Brook over Albany and Southern Utah at North Dakota in some other bubble games to look out for.

[apaladin]

I think the real head scratcher is Central Arkansa. They have gotten a lot of mileage out of their opening game win over WKU. They have lost to Nicholls 34-14 and week before last lost to SE La. 34-0. They also have one point wins over the #7 and #8 teams in the Southland. They are still ranked #11.