#14 Furman @ Samford Oct. 5th

[gman]

I really think Saturday is a defining moment. Yes I know every Saturday is but this one moreso. I really think this will give us a better clue to where we are and if we are a contender or pretender to being the SoCon's best. We are all optimistic and believe we are heading in the right direction. In a lot of ways this will be our biggest test:
Charleston Southern-FU just has more talent.
Georgia St.- Way over-rated just because they beat UT. They are a bad football team FU should have beat.
VPI- A really bad power 5 team, again a team should have beat if we are who we think we are.
Mercer- Thought they would be decent. They may not win another SoCon game.
ETSU- Think they are good on defense but barely have a pulse on offense. If they can find some sort of an offense this could end up looking like a good win but right now not so much.
Of course, win or lose there is still a long way to go but a win would solidify FU as being the best team and give FU momentum for the last half of the season. A loss and this becomes questionable and gives Samford the inside track. To say this is a huge game is an understatement. Go Paladins!!

I 100% agree w AP ... but, as I said elsewhere, I want to say we can definitely get in playoffs without winning the SoCon. Yes, the SoCon has not played well out of conference. Can't deny that. Only FU and Citadel did anything OOC.. well, ETSU over APeay is actually a decent win too now!. But overall we coulda used another win or two - I am looking at you Mercer. - Still, that's where I love us being pre-season ranked! We could probably get in (greater than 50% chance) at 8-4. ALmost a lock at 9-3. I mean, 8-4 w 2 FBS close losses? That's 7-2 (take out POINT) vs FCS. We got in w a far lower ranked team in 2017 (23rd? I don't recall) at 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs FCS. 7-2 vs FCS would do it esp consdering if we lost and then won at that record of 8-4 we would probably fall to 21st and then rise again with the wins to 14th and probably settle about 17th. 8-4 / 7-2 v FCS at 17th is almost a sure thing. Its them there preseason rankings that are helping us

Respectfully I ask, what have we done OOC? Didn’t we lose to a very weak Ga. State team and to a terrible Va. Tech team? My point is that the voters will not look at those games as anything but two loses. The SoCon is pathetic this year. There is no excuse to not win out. Quite frankly, if we don’t win the SoCon, we don’t deserve a playoff bid. That is the way the voters will look at a 2nd place team from the weak SoCon.

[gofurman]

I really think Saturday is a defining moment. Yes I know every Saturday is but this one moreso. I really think this will give us a better clue to where we are and if we are a contender or pretender to being the SoCon's best. We are all optimistic and believe we are heading in the right direction. In a lot of ways this will be our biggest test:
Charleston Southern-FU just has more talent.
Georgia St.- Way over-rated just because they beat UT. They are a bad football team FU should have beat.
VPI- A really bad power 5 team, again a team should have beat if we are who we think we are.
Mercer- Thought they would be decent. They may not win another SoCon game.
ETSU- Think they are good on defense but barely have a pulse on offense. If they can find some sort of an offense this could end up looking like a good win but right now not so much.
Of course, win or lose there is still a long way to go but a win would solidify FU as being the best team and give FU momentum for the last half of the season. A loss and this becomes questionable and gives Samford the inside track. To say this is a huge game is an understatement. Go Paladins!!

I 100% agree w AP ... but, as I said elsewhere, I want to say we can definitely get in playoffs without winning the SoCon. Yes, the SoCon has not played well out of conference. Can't deny that. Only FU and Citadel did anything OOC.. well, ETSU over APeay is actually a decent win too now!. But overall we coulda used another win or two - I am looking at you Mercer. - Still, that's where I love us being pre-season ranked! We could probably get in (greater than 50% chance) at 8-4. ALmost a lock at 9-3. I mean, 8-4 w 2 FBS close losses? That's 7-2 (take out POINT) vs FCS. We got in w a far lower ranked team in 2017 (23rd? I don't recall) at 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs FCS. 7-2 vs FCS would do it esp consdering if we lost and then won at that record of 8-4 we would probably fall to 21st and then rise again with the wins to 14th and probably settle about 17th. 8-4 / 7-2 v FCS at 17th is almost a sure thing. Its them there preseason rankings that are helping us

Respectfully I ask, what have we done OOC? Didn’t we lose to a very weak Ga. State team and to a terrible Va. Tech team? My point is that the voters will not look at those games as anything but two loses. The SoCon is pathetic this year. There is no excuse to not win out. Quite frankly, if we don’t win the SoCon, we don’t deserve a playoff bid. That is the way the voters will look at a 2nd place team from the weak SoCon.

good question - KSU has beaten on two NAIA teams and is top 7 in nation. we have done way more than them. I get your point but it's the frustration of slot voting in reverse ... ranked number 14 now (with those two losses already included there!!!) an 8-4 team would indicate we finished 5-2. 5-2 would keep us ranked in the mid-teens or at 20. deserve it or not they would take us with a 8-4/7-2 FCS record top 20 ranked. Especially if NC A&T go to the bowl game etc. You say the voters only look at those games as losses - I disagree: those losses are ALREADY in the voting.. and have us at 14 !. Right now those losses actually count as a much higher percentage of our season and they have us top 15. So we can already see what those two losses did. That's already in our ranking and we are fine ... Is Socon weaker than sometimes - yes, I agree. But most think we will send two teams. And of course we had a pretty weak OOC last year and they took two (granted, tri-champs). But point is this team would present at 8-4 as better than our team in 2017 at 7-4 which only had one FBS loss and was ranked lower. I loooked and the highest ranked team not taken most years is about 21st. we would be above 21st at 8-4 considering our two FBS losses are already in there and we are ranked 14th.

I just looked we got in playoffs in 2017 at 7-4 (only ONE FBS loss) and - this brings everything together in SOS and record etc) - we were 22nd in STATS and 25th in COACHES. Again, that takes into account the view of our SOS and FBS and everything so basically if we finish 20th or higher we are in. And I am a very objective guy but if went 9-3 that's not even a question, at 8-4 we would about on that line I think. Also, I went and looked at last year where we did not get in ETSU was ranked 22 and 21 in final poll and got in and we were not in top 25. It's pretty clear the line is where you are ranked in polls ( STATS and COACHES) not your SOS etc. You are solid at top 21/22 in the polls . 20-25 gets a little sketchy.

Respectfully, I notice you don't mention the 9-3 record. I don't mean that snarky but that could be 2nd in SoCon and no one would leave a top 20 9-3 team at home. no one.

I agree SoCon didn't pull weight OOC but all that goes into polls, here is 2018 and 2017 poll: (top 25 ranked in 2107 we got in; not quite ranked in 2018 we did not get in - it's that clear)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NCAA ... l_rankings

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NCAA ... l_rankings

I appreciate you having me look into this - I mean that. It was interesting finding how closely (other than conf champs etc) the playoff guys chose straight from the polls. And you get the bump of the HBCU bowl teams and Ivy teams not going to playoffs if they are above Furman

[apaladin]

We've known for years that the playoff committee just goes by the polls. There is no debating teams etc They put no effort in team selection. They prolly take 30 minutes to fill in the bracket and they're done.

[Flagman]

LND

[gofurman]

I SOO want this win because it lets us sit on open week on a win.. and watch others play while we rest. also, Cit has to play while we are off. I will say I give us a much better chance vs Cit than Sam - CH is 0-2 vs Sam and 2-0 vs Cit and Cit is at home and we have the break to prepp for option

[gofurman]

We've known for years that the playoff committee just goes by the polls. There is no debating teams etc They put no effort in team selection. They prolly take 30 minutes to fill in the bracket and they're done.

right - and we can come in 8-4 (proby) or 9-3 (surely) and be fine. we already have the 2 FBS losses and that is included in our rank of about 15th. That's a lock. So now it's just go 5-2 or better in remaining games and we stay about top 20... 7-0 is lock plus SoCon champ. 6-1 is lock and maybe SoCon champ (though Sam has beaten Citadel already).. 5-2 is probably an at large as that is 8-4. we were close at 6-4 last year and not ranked. ranked 8-4 I'll put my money we are in. people say leave no doubt but that is far easier said than done. Sam is playing ver well. I am scared of them

[AstroDin]

I think Samford's early SoCon schedule gave them a break.
Samford played Wofford early in the season with the Terriers trying to find their way offensively.
Samford played the CItadel with a hobbled QB still the Chucktown Dogs turned it into a dog fight.
Furman will come to Bama with something to prove, healthy, and prepared.

After Saturday lots of SoCon, landmines coming up.

Samford has VMI, Mercer, WCU, and Auburn on the road. Samford has ETSU and Chatty as remaining home games.
Wofford has ETSU, Clemson, and Mercer on the road. Wofford has Furman and WCU as remaining home games.
The Citadel has Furman and ETSU on the road. The Dogs have WCU, Mercer, and Wofford as remaining home games.
ETSU has Chatty, Samford, WCU, and Vandy on the road. The Bucs have Wofford, Mercer, and The Citadel at home.

Furman IMO plays on the road very well. After Saturday Furman has WCU, Chatty, and Wofford on the road.
Lots of critical games left in the SoCon.

[The Jackal]

I think Samford's early SoCon schedule gave them a break.
Samford played Wofford early in the season with the Terriers trying to find their way offensively.
Samford played the CItadel with a hobbled QB still the Chucktown Dogs turned it into a dog fight.
Furman will come to Bama with something to prove, healthy, and prepared.

After Saturday lots of SoCon, landmines coming up.

Samford has VMI, Mercer, WCU, and Auburn on the road. Samford has ETSU and Chatty as remaining home games.
Wofford has ETSU, Clemson, and Mercer on the road. Wofford has Furman and WCU as remaining home games.
The Citadel has Furman and ETSU on the road. The Dogs have WCU, Mercer, and Wofford as remaining home games.
ETSU has Chatty, Samford, WCU, and Vandy on the road. The Bucs have Wofford, Mercer, and The Citadel at home.

Furman IMO plays on the road very well. After Saturday Furman has WCU, Chatty, and Wofford on the road.
Lots of critical games left in the SoCon.

Hot take - I'm not terribly impressed with either the Citadel or Wofford.

Remember, the Citadel struggled to beat a Charleston Southern team we sand blasted

[FUpaladin08]

right - and we can come in 8-4 (proby) or 9-3 (surely) and be fine. we already have the 2 FBS losses and that is included in our rank of about 15th. That's a lock. So now it's just go 5-2 or better in remaining games and we stay about top 20... 7-0 is lock plus SoCon champ. 6-1 is lock and maybe SoCon champ (though Sam has beaten Citadel already).. 5-2 is probably an at large as that is 8-4. we were close at 6-4 last year and not ranked. ranked 8-4 I'll put my money we are in. people say leave no doubt but that is far easier said than done. Sam is playing ver well. I am scared of them

I’ll take 7-0 and the 8th seed please

[FUBeAR]

I think Samford's early SoCon schedule gave them a break.
Samford played Wofford early in the season with the Terriers trying to find their way offensively.
Samford played the CItadel with a hobbled QB still the Chucktown Dogs turned it into a dog fight.
Furman will come to Bama with something to prove, healthy, and prepared.

After Saturday lots of SoCon, landmines coming up.

Samford has VMI, Mercer, WCU, and Auburn on the road. Samford has ETSU and Chatty as remaining home games.
Wofford has ETSU, Clemson, and Mercer on the road. Wofford has Furman and WCU as remaining home games.
The Citadel has Furman and ETSU on the road. The Dogs have WCU, Mercer, and Wofford as remaining home games.
ETSU has Chatty, Samford, WCU, and Vandy on the road. The Bucs have Wofford, Mercer, and The Citadel at home.

Furman IMO plays on the road very well. After Saturday Furman has WCU, Chatty, and Wofford on the road.
Lots of critical games left in the SoCon.

Hot take - I'm not terribly impressed with either the Citadel or Wofford.

As always, we are in perfect alignment in our thinking.

[The Jackal]

I think Samford's early SoCon schedule gave them a break.
Samford played Wofford early in the season with the Terriers trying to find their way offensively.
Samford played the CItadel with a hobbled QB still the Chucktown Dogs turned it into a dog fight.
Furman will come to Bama with something to prove, healthy, and prepared.

After Saturday lots of SoCon, landmines coming up.

Samford has VMI, Mercer, WCU, and Auburn on the road. Samford has ETSU and Chatty as remaining home games.
Wofford has ETSU, Clemson, and Mercer on the road. Wofford has Furman and WCU as remaining home games.
The Citadel has Furman and ETSU on the road. The Dogs have WCU, Mercer, and Wofford as remaining home games.
ETSU has Chatty, Samford, WCU, and Vandy on the road. The Bucs have Wofford, Mercer, and The Citadel at home.

Furman IMO plays on the road very well. After Saturday Furman has WCU, Chatty, and Wofford on the road.
Lots of critical games left in the SoCon.

Hot take - I'm not terribly impressed with either the Citadel or Wofford.

As always, we are in perfect alignment in our thinking.

I think folks feel like they are better than they are.

If Wofford beats ETSU this weekend, I will about face. My gut says that ETSU probably wins that game relatively easily.

[apaladin]

I think Samford's early SoCon schedule gave them a break.
Samford played Wofford early in the season with the Terriers trying to find their way offensively.
Samford played the CItadel with a hobbled QB still the Chucktown Dogs turned it into a dog fight.
Furman will come to Bama with something to prove, healthy, and prepared.

After Saturday lots of SoCon, landmines coming up.

Samford has VMI, Mercer, WCU, and Auburn on the road. Samford has ETSU and Chatty as remaining home games.
Wofford has ETSU, Clemson, and Mercer on the road. Wofford has Furman and WCU as remaining home games.
The Citadel has Furman and ETSU on the road. The Dogs have WCU, Mercer, and Wofford as remaining home games.
ETSU has Chatty, Samford, WCU, and Vandy on the road. The Bucs have Wofford, Mercer, and The Citadel at home.

Furman IMO plays on the road very well. After Saturday Furman has WCU, Chatty, and Wofford on the road.
Lots of critical games left in the SoCon.

Hot take - I'm not terribly impressed with either the Citadel or Wofford.

As always, we are in perfect alignment in our thinking.

I think folks feel like they are better than they are.

If Wofford beats ETSU this weekend, I will about face. My gut says that ETSU probably wins that game relatively easily.

ETSU may win but it won't be easy. ETSU still has to score.

[gofurman]

I think Samford's early SoCon schedule gave them a break.
Samford played Wofford early in the season with the Terriers trying to find their way offensively.
Samford played the CItadel with a hobbled QB still the Chucktown Dogs turned it into a dog fight.
Furman will come to Bama with something to prove, healthy, and prepared.

After Saturday lots of SoCon, landmines coming up.

Samford has VMI, Mercer, WCU, and Auburn on the road. Samford has ETSU and Chatty as remaining home games.
Wofford has ETSU, Clemson, and Mercer on the road. Wofford has Furman and WCU as remaining home games.
The Citadel has Furman and ETSU on the road. The Dogs have WCU, Mercer, and Wofford as remaining home games.
ETSU has Chatty, Samford, WCU, and Vandy on the road. The Bucs have Wofford, Mercer, and The Citadel at home.

Furman IMO plays on the road very well. After Saturday Furman has WCU, Chatty, and Wofford on the road.
Lots of critical games left in the SoCon.

I think best 3 are Furman, Sam and maybe Citadel - at least in terms of ceiling as they beat GT and QB has been hurt... then next are ETSU and Woff and Chatt? no order there.

I agree Samford got the best schedule now that we have seen teams play ! You say they go on road to VMI, Mercer and Western? that's the easiest three all on road - IE they get all the tough ones (like FU) AT Sam.. they did have Woff on road but took care of that. Sam has the dream schedule. they also got - as you note - Wofford still figuring out their identity and Citadel w a hurt QB. Though Woff game they were back to running. THat was a decent win for Sam.

We play Sam on road and Woff on road and Chatt on road. Our sched is much harderr. as you say Woff appears to be improving as they quit slinging it liek at SC State and are running more - though not toption. vWhere I am going is if Sam beats us I don't see much chance for Sam to lose - i guess what I am getting at is other than us, I don't see that Samford has many tough landmine left??? What landmines does Sam have other than us?

The other thing we aren't pointing out here is we got both a tough one and a break - ETSU had all the Defensive stars back for us but is still on the 3rd QB.. and that shows. They may get the transfer QB back soon. we got a break there - the Coastal transfer can't be worse

The main point is CH has only one team he has never beaten' - Sam. We need to change that this week !!!

[gofurman]

I think Samford's early SoCon schedule gave them a break.
Samford played Wofford early in the season with the Terriers trying to find their way offensively.
Samford played the CItadel with a hobbled QB still the Chucktown Dogs turned it into a dog fight.
Furman will come to Bama with something to prove, healthy, and prepared.

After Saturday lots of SoCon, landmines coming up.

Samford has VMI, Mercer, WCU, and Auburn on the road. Samford has ETSU and Chatty as remaining home games.
Wofford has ETSU, Clemson, and Mercer on the road. Wofford has Furman and WCU as remaining home games.
The Citadel has Furman and ETSU on the road. The Dogs have WCU, Mercer, and Wofford as remaining home games.
ETSU has Chatty, Samford, WCU, and Vandy on the road. The Bucs have Wofford, Mercer, and The Citadel at home.

Furman IMO plays on the road very well. After Saturday Furman has WCU, Chatty, and Wofford on the road.
Lots of critical games left in the SoCon.

Hot take - I'm not terribly impressed with either the Citadel or Wofford.

As always, we are in perfect alignment in our thinking.

I think folks feel like they are better than they are.

If Wofford beats ETSU this weekend, I will about face. My gut says that ETSU probably wins that game relatively easily.

jackal, i'll go against you on this one. ETSU has no O to speak of but because of the missin' DL on Woff that really helps as ETSU will run right at that. ETSU may win but not easy but hey, what do I know.. .lol

[gofurman]

We've known for years that the playoff committee just goes by the polls. There is no debating teams etc They put no effort in team selection. They prolly take 30 minutes to fill in the bracket and they're done.

Exactly. and this year that favors us as we had the pre-season ranking ... so we can lose a game or two as our FBS losses are already included in our 15th ranking. go 7-0 or 6-1 and we are top 20 easy. 5-2 will be about 20th my worthless opinoin - all three would amke playoffs with only 5-2 being a lil; sweat. can't lose to all 3 of Sam, Cit and Woff. I like playing Cit after a week off to prep for option!