#14 Furman @ Samford Oct. 5th

[The Jackal]

Here's an interesting statistical nugget....Samford has played Youngstown St, Tenn Tech, Wofford, Alabama A&M and Citadel.

In those 5 games they've surrendered a SoCon worst 264 yards/game rushing and 4.2 ypc.

They've given up big ground yardage to YSU (277 and 4.5), TT (246 and 5.0) and BamaAM (259 and 5.5)

BUT....they only gave up 284 and 4.4 to Wofford (vs 344 avg) and 266 and 2.8 to Citadel (on 95 rushes!!)

Looks like when they want to stop or control the run, they can. Assuming they take the same tact against us, our passing game will need to be clicking....

There were a few takeaways for me

I think we’re better than both Wofford and the Citadel. Neither of those teams can consistently throw the ball. The Citadel struggled to beat Charleston Southern.

This will rankle samford fans, but it was clear that Citadels star QB was hobbling most of the game. Late in the game, Samford just started stacking the box - they knew the QB couldn’t cut or plant to throw.

Example:

Late in the game on a third and 7. Samford brings 10 men within 5 yards of the ball. They won’t be able to do that against Furman.

I don’t necessarily disagree with running the ball on 3rd and 7 with the lead in that situation, but Samford wasn’t even pretending they were doing anything put coming up to stop the run.

Also, as well as they defended the run, citadel also threw for right at 200 yards and a pretty staggering 32.7 ypc average. Up until Saturday, the most passing yards Citadel had had in a game was 81 against CSU.

That isn’t a product of OT either. Citadel attempted only two passes on 4OTs, both incomplete, and one was thrown by a wide receiver.

[apaladin]

Why wouldn't Samford have 10 men within 5 yards of the LOS. Look at Citadels formation, no wideouts and everyone tight. Obviously they were not throwing out of that formation. It is obvious that Samford committed to stop the run and dared then to throw. That is why Citadel was successful the few times they did throw. They may try the same strategy against FU but maybe not quite as extreme and dare FU to throw.

[The Jackal]

Why wouldn't Samford have 10 men within 5 yards of the LOS. Look at Citadels formation, no wideouts and everyone tight. Obviously they were not throwing out of that formation. It is obvious that Samford committed to stop the run and dared then to throw. That is why Citadel was successful the few times they did throw. They may try the same strategy against FU but maybe not quite as extreme and dare FU to throw.

Yes and not yes.

The Citadel is not "obviously" throwing out of any formation. They only put it in the air 4 or 5 times a game and their linemen are not built to pass block. The Citadel essentially has one target in the passing game - Raleigh Webb (I'm not sure he was even in that play). You can live with little dump offs to the running backs. Defenses have to cover Webb - he's really the only one that can hurt you.

My only real point is that some of what Samford was doing against the Citadel and Wofford isn't going to work against Furman.

Furman is going to have to force Samford to get off the line. ETSU stuffed guys in there and dared us to throw it, and we struggled. Now, I don't think Samford has the DBs that ETSU does, but our offense is going to have to be able to throw it. We can't be as one dimensional as we were Saturday.

[apaladin]

Agree, we certainly won't win throwing it 14 times against Samford.

[gofurman]

Agree, we certainly won't win throwing it 14 times against Samford.

14 times can work but you have to complete more than 6 of those. 6 completions.. sheesh - credit to ETSU

[The Jackal]

Agree, we certainly won't win throwing it 14 times against Samford.

We threw it 16 times against Mercer and put up 45 points. I think we've been right around 15 passing attempts in every game this season except for Georgia State.

[gofurman]

Agree, we certainly won't win throwing it 14 times against Samford.

We threw it 16 times against Mercer and put up 45 points. I think we've been right around 15 passing attempts in every game this season except for Georgia State.

Jackal, right - we KILLED Woff last year and I think we were something like 19 pass attempts.. the thing is we completed 16 ! 16/19 will win. 6 of 14 and a pick (v ETSU) not so much. If we coulda completed 11 of 14 vs ETSU that's a different game.

A lot had to do w ETSU D. I do think that is the best D in the league. esp DL and DBs. I think we probably have best LBs. But when you have best DL and DBs (who just came back and didn't play week or two before) that's probably the singular best D in leagbue

[Paul C]

WOW!!! I just realized it's not the number of passes you THROW, but the number you COMPLETE!!! OMG I see the game in a whole new light!!

j/k and thanks for letting me give you hard time

[gofurman]

WOW!!! I just realized it's not the number of passes you THROW, but the number you COMPLETE!!! OMG I see the game in a whole new light!!

j/k and thanks for letting me give you hard time

LOL. Nice. I do Like the funny and good attitude w the “ thanks for letting me give you hard time “.

Good stuff, you are a great fan and good at heckling me. LOL

As dumb as it sounds on my post... I was responding to where AP was saying we have to THROW (attempt) more than 14 times. . That’s literally what he was advocating - number of attempts. He said “we WONT WIN throwing it 14 times v Samford”. . And I get his point. But what Jackal and I were noting w Facts was the ‘pass attempts to back the D off the LOS” doesn’t hold as much water. We always throw about 20 times. Much more means we are in trouble

Heck Citadel coulda won and they threw 7 times I think

Paul, you had a great point earlier where you dug through details. This Samford team can really stop run when they commit to it. They basically over committed toStop run v Citadel giving R Web WR (who may play in Sundays) one on one coverage ! And he killed them w huge receptions but Samford basically said we don’t care, we just aren’t gonns let you run. At all. Also I watched that Sam v Citadel replay and yes Cit qb is gimpy but Samford blew up outside runs too by beating blocks of citadel. They can stop run - as you said - if they decide that’s the way to win. I suspect after ETSU that’s what we will see.

[gofurman]

Lets go w jinx theory. I was scared of Mercer. We rolled. I was not scared of ETSU. We eeked out a win. I am scared of Samford. I honestly am and Vegas (FOR FUN) has us a whopping 3 point favorite.

Back to my passing teams do better against us theory. I always want to play running teams that don't throw as well - that was ETSU and so I didn't worry about their offense vs our D. And they scored 10 points. I didn't realize that Mercer was playing so poorly right now ( lose to Campbell? ). Had that occured before our game I wouldn't have worried.. as much Other fact I did not know so I am stealing from someone above - Samford has won 18 of last 20 games at home... That's astounding

Respect every opponent.

[gofurman]

https://s3.amazonaws.com/furmanpaladins ... maries.pdf
game notes out. congrats to all the guys that are pushing to be starters !!!
Appears we have Watkins? Interesting note: Coleman Stokes and Hodge have all started at NG in different games. 3 diff guys. I am glad to see Coleman contributing as we need more size and weight there in middle.

wonder if we are gonna redshirt maples and shiflett? It's been a while since they saw the field and both have redshirts to take. Hope Austin Jones gets on the field at some time but if not (I have heard GREAT things about him!) I could see us redshirting him too.. like CH said w Gilby last year it got far enough in Oct that they decided to Redshirt him

I agree w Astro that I hope to not see Wynn return KOR. He is so valuable as TB !

[apaladin]

I really think Saturday is a defining moment. Yes I know every Saturday is but this one moreso. I really think this will give us a better clue to where we are and if we are a contender or pretender to being the SoCon's best. We are all optimistic and believe we are heading in the right direction. In a lot of ways this will be our biggest test:
Charleston Southern-FU just has more talent.
Georgia St.- Way over-rated just because they beat UT. They are a bad football team FU should have beat.
VPI- A really bad power 5 team, again a team should have beat if we are who we think we are.
Mercer- Thought they would be decent. They may not win another SoCon game.
ETSU- Think they are good on defense but barely have a pulse on offense. If they can find some sort of an offense this could end up looking like a good win but right now not so much.
Of course, win or lose there is still a long way to go but a win would solidify FU as being the best team and give FU momentum for the last half of the season. A loss and this becomes questionable and gives Samford the inside track. To say this is a huge game is an understatement. Go Paladins!!

[FUpaladin08]

https://s3.amazonaws.com/furmanpaladins ... maries.pdf

I agree w Astro that I hope to not see Wynn return KOR. He is so valuable as TB !

I wonder with the new redshirt rule if there is more push to have some of those players on special teams and rotate them after four games with another group of redshirts. This would keep starters like Wynn off KOR in lieu of younger, but talented, players needing playing time. Sidenote: if/when healthy, I'd love to see Shiflet returning KO and punts.

[paladinduece]

https://s3.amazonaws.com/furmanpaladins ... maries.pdf

I agree w Astro that I hope to not see Wynn return KOR. He is so valuable as TB !

I wonder with the new redshirt rule if there is more push to have some of those players on special teams and rotate them after four games with another group of redshirts. This would keep starters like Wynn off KOR in lieu of younger, but talented, players needing playing time. Sidenote: if/when healthy, I'd love to see Shiflet returning KO and punts.

There a are a couple of guys who have been injured who were not in the red shirt discussion I am hoping to see soon that may help with what you are saying. I know they are being considered as a redshirt for now, but as we all know they are going to play who gives them the best chance for the W. Injuries and a playoff run can really shuffle the deck. Shiflett and Jones are two that come to mind.

[gofurman]

I really think Saturday is a defining moment. Yes I know every Saturday is but this one moreso. I really think this will give us a better clue to where we are and if we are a contender or pretender to being the SoCon's best. We are all optimistic and believe we are heading in the right direction. In a lot of ways this will be our biggest test:
Charleston Southern-FU just has more talent.
Georgia St.- Way over-rated just because they beat UT. They are a bad football team FU should have beat.
VPI- A really bad power 5 team, again a team should have beat if we are who we think we are.
Mercer- Thought they would be decent. They may not win another SoCon game.
ETSU- Think they are good on defense but barely have a pulse on offense. If they can find some sort of an offense this could end up looking like a good win but right now not so much.
Of course, win or lose there is still a long way to go but a win would solidify FU as being the best team and give FU momentum for the last half of the season. A loss and this becomes questionable and gives Samford the inside track. To say this is a huge game is an understatement. Go Paladins!!

I 100% agree w AP ... but, as I said elsewhere, I want to say we can definitely get in playoffs without winning the SoCon. Yes, the SoCon has not played well out of conference. Can't deny that. Only FU and Citadel did anything OOC.. well, ETSU over APeay is actually a decent win too now!. But overall we coulda used another win or two. - Still, that's where I love us being pre-season ranked! We could probably get in (greater than 50% chance) at 8-4. Lock at 9-3. I mean, 8-4 w 2 FBS close losses? That's 7-2 (take out POINT) vs FCS. We got in w a far lower ranked team in 2017 (23rd? I don't recall) at 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs FCS. 7-2 vs FCS would do it esp consdering if we lost and then won at that record of 8-4 we would probably fall to 21st and then rise again with the wins to 14th and probably settle about 17th. 8-4 / 7-2 v FCS at 17th is almost a sure thing. Its them there preseason rankings that are helping us

Tough thing w SoCon title is I think three best teams are Furman, Samford and Citadel and IF we win, great ! but if sam wins they have already beaten' the top other teams