Game 4 - Mercer

[FUBeAR]

-3 turnover.....

Mercer fell behind 41-20 in early q4. Didn’t watch it so I’m guessing at the flow of the game but wonder how many of Riddle’s passing yards came in q4 w AP sitting back in a zone not wanting to give up a quick score.

Not diminishing the Mercer passing attack, just pointing out the box score can be just as misleading as the score board.

I watched most (all?) of the game between APSU and Mercer. These are my takeaways:

1. Mercer couldn't run the ball. At all. Most of Devezin's yards came on 1 run (21 yards). By all accounts, AP has a very strong run defense.

2. Robert Riddle was hit a bunch. APSU was formally credited with 1 sack, but they seemed to hit Riddle every time he dropped back to throw.

3. Given points 1 and 2 above, I can only assume that Saturday was not a banner day for Mercer's offensive line.

4. With no run game and little time to throw, most of Mercer's offense ended up being quick outs/curls/hitches/screens to the WRs, RBs, and TEs. Late in the game, APSU was starting to jump all over those routes knowing the Bears didn't have time to go over their heads.

5. Lamb said in his presser that David Durden played in 82 plays excluding special teams. The stat sheet shows that Mercer only ran 78 plays. Regardless, he plays a bunch.

6. Durden's touchdown catch was really impressive. There was nothing wrong with the defensive positioning on that play. The ball well could have been intercepted. Just an outstanding play by Durden.

7. It's hard for any team to overcome two non-offensive touchdowns and a near third one.

8. Defensively, APSU was very aggressive. They were right up in Mercer's face and, I think, knew that they had a matchup advantage out there. I don't know where our defense compares with the Governors' defense, but it certainly worked.

9. Austin Peay really isn't anything special on offense. They've got a few impressive players, but so does everyone. I think we are a much better offensive football team than they are.

10. If I am game planning for Saturday, you know that Mercer has to get its running game going. Mercer spent a lot of time with its TE flexed out wide (see play above), but it wouldn't shock me to see them bring the TE back inside as an H-back to try and get an extra blocker in there.

11. Mercer is plenty dangerous and thrives on big plays. They have three guys (Riddle, Devezin, and Durden) that carry most of the water. On Saturday, even subtracting the fact that Riddle takes every snap, those three accounted for roughly half of all of Mercer's offensive production between Riddle and Devezin running and throws targeting Durden. They try to put the ball in the hands of their biggest playmakers as often as possible. The defense has to try to eliminate at least one of those guys (APSU eliminated Devezin).

12. Offensively, we need to play the type of offensive football we are capable of. Mercer is solid, but not overwhelming defensively. Same thing every week - take care of the ball and run hard.

Interesting perspectives

[apaladin]

The disconcerting part is that what Peay did in the 4th qtr "sitting back in zone and not wanting to give up a quick score" is what FU does the entire game.

I swear this line of argument is going to drive me off the deep end.

Here are VT's passing stats from Saturday.

PASSING
Total (Net) 123
Comp.-Att.-Int.: 17-21-1
Avg. / Att. 5.9
Avg. / Comp. 7.2
TDs 1

That doesn't even include 4 sacks.

If folks want to criticize the pass defense, that's fine. Just don't criticize the pass defense against Georgia State and completely ignore the overwhelming job Furman did against the Hokies.

True, those are not very good passing stats but they did not throw it a lot and you kinda ignore the fact that they completed 81% and at least one was just an errant throw(interception). Mercer will throw it 50 times and at 80% that is 40 completions. That will add up to a lot of yards and TOP but hopefully not a lot of points.

[cavedweller2]

I dont forsee 29-49 against AP translating to 80 % vs Furman. Just dont see it.

[Fred Garvin]

My prediction????????

Pain

[fufanatic]

In looking back at the yearly interception leaders for Furman ... we haven't had a player with more than 2 since 2015 or more than 4 since 2002. And this is in an era of teams throwing it around much more than they did in the 70s, 80s and even 90s. The national individual leader in the category already has 3 this year and in past years the average is usually 7-9.

As a team, the Paladins haven't averaged at least one INT a game since 2013 and haven't had more than two consecutive years with at least an average of one INT a game since 2002-2004.

Hopefully someone smarter than me can tell us what these numbers mean, but it's hard not to think that it says that we sit back in pass coverage a lot and hope the other team makes a mistake before reaching the end zone. That philosophy works just fine against running teams like VT, but doesn't appear to work quite as well against pass-first teams like Georgia State as an example.

[tim]

Hope we have a nice crowd. Furman vs Mercer is a bargain. It has been a great nail biter every year.

[The Jackal]

The disconcerting part is that what Peay did in the 4th qtr "sitting back in zone and not wanting to give up a quick score" is what FU does the entire game.

I swear this line of argument is going to drive me off the deep end.

Here are VT's passing stats from Saturday.

PASSING
Total (Net) 123
Comp.-Att.-Int.: 17-21-1
Avg. / Att. 5.9
Avg. / Comp. 7.2
TDs 1

That doesn't even include 4 sacks.

If folks want to criticize the pass defense, that's fine. Just don't criticize the pass defense against Georgia State and completely ignore the overwhelming job Furman did against the Hokies.

True, those are not very good passing stats but they did not throw it a lot and you kinda ignore the fact that they completed 81% and at least one was just an errant throw(interception). Mercer will throw it 50 times and at 80% that is 40 completions. That will add up to a lot of yards and TOP but hopefully not a lot of points.

I do not think Mercer is going to want to throw 50 times.

[MNORM]

The disconcerting part is that what Peay did in the 4th qtr "sitting back in zone and not wanting to give up a quick score" is what FU does the entire game.

I swear this line of argument is going to drive me off the deep end.

Here are VT's passing stats from Saturday.

PASSING
Total (Net) 123
Comp.-Att.-Int.: 17-21-1
Avg. / Att. 5.9
Avg. / Comp. 7.2
TDs 1

That doesn't even include 4 sacks.

If folks want to criticize the pass defense, that's fine. Just don't criticize the pass defense against Georgia State and completely ignore the overwhelming job Furman did against the Hokies.

True, those are not very good passing stats but they did not throw it a lot and you kinda ignore the fact that they completed 81% and at least one was just an errant throw(interception). Mercer will throw it 50 times and at 80% that is 40 completions. That will add up to a lot of yards and TOP but hopefully not a lot of points.

I do not think Mercer is going to want to throw 50 times.

Only way Mercer throwing 50 times makes any sense is when trying to overcome a 3 score deficit in the 4th quarter .

[DungeonRealm]

Hope we have a nice crowd. Furman vs Mercer is a bargain. It has been a great nail biter every year.

Weather is looking pretty good for this Saturday, plus its parents weekend, so hopefully it will be a nice college football environment to show some recruits

[Jasper]

In looking back at the yearly interception leaders for Furman ... we haven't had a player with more than 2 since 2015 or more than 4 since 2002. And this is in an era of teams throwing it around much more than they did in the 70s, 80s and even 90s. The national individual leader in the category already has 3 this year and in past years the average is usually 7-9.

As a team, the Paladins haven't averaged at least one INT a game since 2013 and haven't had more than two consecutive years with at least an average of one INT a game since 2002-2004.

Hopefully someone smarter than me can tell us what these numbers mean, but it's hard not to think that it says that we sit back in pass coverage a lot and hope the other team makes a mistake before reaching the end zone. That philosophy works just fine against running teams like VT, but doesn't appear to work quite as well against pass-first teams like Georgia State as an example.

I think that is generally a fair assessment of the FU pass defense philosophy. A lot depends on the opposing QB however. We sat back in a zone against GSU and were hurt by it. That was likely because of the mobility of the GSU QB to avoid any rush and pick up big yardage while scrambling. The defense was much more aggressive against VT because that QB did not possess the same dangerous athleticism. It upset both the QB and his O line who jumped offsides several times in anticipation. I do not think we can allow the Mercer QB to sit back against a 3 man rush and play pitch and catch with his good receivers inside the zone unless we want to get into a high scoring shoot out. You and some other posters are not wrong in observing that we often play a passive pass defense along the lines of a bend-do-not-break philosophy. It is a very legitimate defensive scheme employed by some very successful teams. I hope our coaching staff will chose the correct approach for this opponent.

[The Jackal]

In looking back at the yearly interception leaders for Furman ... we haven't had a player with more than 2 since 2015 or more than 4 since 2002. And this is in an era of teams throwing it around much more than they did in the 70s, 80s and even 90s. The national individual leader in the category already has 3 this year and in past years the average is usually 7-9.

As a team, the Paladins haven't averaged at least one INT a game since 2013 and haven't had more than two consecutive years with at least an average of one INT a game since 2002-2004.

Hopefully someone smarter than me can tell us what these numbers mean, but it's hard not to think that it says that we sit back in pass coverage a lot and hope the other team makes a mistake before reaching the end zone. That philosophy works just fine against running teams like VT, but doesn't appear to work quite as well against pass-first teams like Georgia State as an example.

I think that is generally a fair assessment of the FU pass defense philosophy. A lot depends on the opposing QB however. We sat back in a zone against GSU and were hurt by it. That was likely because of the mobility of the GSU QB to avoid any rush and pick up big yardage while scrambling. The defense was much more aggressive against VT because that QB did not possess the same dangerous athleticism. It upset both the QB and his O line who jumped offsides several times in anticipation. I do not think we can allow the Mercer QB to sit back against a 3 man rush and play pitch and catch with his good receivers inside the zone unless we want to get into a high scoring shoot out. You and some other posters are not wrong in observing that we often play a passive pass defense along the lines of a bend-do-not-break philosophy. It is a very legitimate defensive scheme employed by some very successful teams. I hope our coaching staff will chose the correct approach for this opponent.

I agree with this. What gets lost in this "philosophy" argument is matchups.

GSU had a bunch of team speed. It doesn't do a lot of good to apply a lot of pressure against a team full of jackrabbits - they'll run right by you. You cannot play too aggressively against teams like that - they are too fast and too slippery.

There is no "one size fits all" defensive scheme. Schemes should change depending on the opponent and the matchups. When the defense has an athletic advantage, they can afford to play more aggressively.

[DungeonRealm]

[FUBeAR]

-3 turnover.....

Mercer fell behind 41-20 in early q4. Didn’t watch it so I’m guessing at the flow of the game but wonder how many of Riddle’s passing yards came in q4 w AP sitting back in a zone not wanting to give up a quick score.

Not diminishing the Mercer passing attack, just pointing out the box score can be just as misleading as the score board.

I watched most (all?) of the game between APSU and Mercer. These are my takeaways:

1. Mercer couldn't run the ball. At all. Most of Devezin's yards came on 1 run (21 yards). By all accounts, AP has a very strong run defense.

2. Robert Riddle was hit a bunch. APSU was formally credited with 1 sack, but they seemed to hit Riddle every time he dropped back to throw.

3. Given points 1 and 2 above, I can only assume that Saturday was not a banner day for Mercer's offensive line.

4. With no run game and little time to throw, most of Mercer's offense ended up being quick outs/curls/hitches/screens to the WRs, RBs, and TEs. Late in the game, APSU was starting to jump all over those routes knowing the Bears didn't have time to go over their heads.

5. Lamb said in his presser that David Durden played in 82 plays excluding special teams. The stat sheet shows that Mercer only ran 78 plays. Regardless, he plays a bunch.

6. Durden's touchdown catch was really impressive. There was nothing wrong with the defensive positioning on that play. The ball well could have been intercepted. Just an outstanding play by Durden.

7. It's hard for any team to overcome two non-offensive touchdowns and a near third one.

8. Defensively, APSU was very aggressive. They were right up in Mercer's face and, I think, knew that they had a matchup advantage out there. I don't know where our defense compares with the Governors' defense, but it certainly worked.

9. Austin Peay really isn't anything special on offense. They've got a few impressive players, but so does everyone. I think we are a much better offensive football team than they are.

10. If I am game planning for Saturday, you know that Mercer has to get its running game going. Mercer spent a lot of time with its TE flexed out wide (see play above), but it wouldn't shock me to see them bring the TE back inside as an H-back to try and get an extra blocker in there.

11. Mercer is plenty dangerous and thrives on big plays. They have three guys (Riddle, Devezin, and Durden) that carry most of the water. On Saturday, even subtracting the fact that Riddle takes every snap, those three accounted for roughly half of all of Mercer's offensive production between Riddle and Devezin running and throws targeting Durden. They try to put the ball in the hands of their biggest playmakers as often as possible. The defense has to try to eliminate at least one of those guys (APSU eliminated Devezin).

12. Offensively, we need to play the type of offensive football we are capable of. Mercer is solid, but not overwhelming defensively. Same thing every week - take care of the ball and run hard.

Interesting perspectives

Probably should point out, though, with regard to Point #11, Mercer WR, Tucker Cannon, is leading the SoCon in Receiving Yards & is #4 in All-Purpose Yards. Good kid (Former walk-on) w/great parents, both PC grads. They were pretty happy when #80 set Mercer’s single game Receiving Yards (7-144-1) record in Clinnon a couple of weeks ago. Also, Mercer’s backup RB, Deondre Johnson (also a Former Walk-on), is #8 in the SoCon in Rushing & #10 in All-Purpose Yards.

RECEIVE YDS/GAME Cl G Rec. Yards TD Long Rec/G Avg/C Avg/G
1. Tucker Cannon-MER JR 3 13 285 2 85 4.3 21.9 95.0
2. David Durden-MER SO 3 16 257 3 63 5.3 16.1 85.7

ALL PURPOSE Cl G Rush Rcv PR KR Yards Yards/G
1. David Durden-MER SO 3 0 257 0 282 539 179.7
4. Tucker Cannon-MER JR 3 0 285 61 0 346 115.3
10. Deondre Johnson-MER FR 3 184 -8 0 70 246 82.0

RUSHING Cl G Att. Yards Avg. TD Long Avg/G
8. Deondre Johnson-MER FR 3 25 184 7.4 2 64 61.3

...so, we probably don’t want to sleep on those 2 either.

Actually, there is very little correlation between Mercer’s Offense of 2019 & Chattanooga’s (QB Tiano, RB Price, WR Nunnally) of 2018. Heck, Mercer’s TE, Chris Ellington, had 5 receptions & a TD (his 2nd of the season) vs. APSU...and the Bears had 4 other Receivers with double-digit Yards Receiving, for a total of 7 players with > 15 yards receiving.

...and 1 other thing FUBeAR found particularly interesting while watching the APSU game live & on replay. APSU had only 2 PI’s called on them in the 1st 3 quarters & 3 called on them in the 4th quarter alone, when the outcome of the game was all but already determined. Sure, Mercer threw more in the 4th, but that’s a 448% / quarter increase in PI calls in the 4th. Interpret that metric as you would like.

[apaladin]

Just checked the ticket site and even though it is Family Weekend, which is usually good for attendance, there are a lot of tickets left on the home side. Mercer doesn't travel well so not much help there. Was hoping for at least 8k but that is in doubt now. Hopefully sales will pick up the next couple of days.

[DungeonRealm]

Just checked the ticket site and even though it is Family Weekend, which is usually good for attendance, there are a lot of tickets left on the home side. Mercer doesn't travel well so not much help there. Was hoping for at least 8k but that is in doubt now. Hopefully sales will pick up the next couple of days.

Noticed that too, hopefully the walk-up will be decent with nice weather in store