Playoff projections

[FUBeAR]

Also worth noting that the only team to beat Samford this season is UGA - who is clearly the #1 team in the FBS.

Yep…somebody should mention that…

The HomewoodHounds ONLY loss is to #1 FBS, Georgia! They’ve beaten Top 5 Teams, Furman and Chattanooga (see how that circular logic / hype works) on the road. Jeez - You could make an argument for Samford at #2 in the AP and CFP.

[apaladin]

What is the Simple Rating System?

[FUBeAR]

What is the Simple Rating System?

It’s here https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football ... ngs-system

…and says it hasn’t been updated since 11/23/19…which, if not mistaken, was Selection Day 2019…so, while they say they use it, FUBeAR bets it hasn’t been looked at for the last 2 selection cycles and probably was mostly ignored prior.

One explanation of how it works…
“SRS
Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average, although it should be noted that margin of victory has been assigned a lower bound of 7 points and an upper bound of 24 points.”

[Sad Din]

What is the Simple Rating System? Well it is a ncaa system that hasn’t been updated since 2019. Is the chairman just that stoopid?

Opposite of Complicated Rating System

[apaladin]

What is the Simple Rating System?

It’s here https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football ... ngs-system

…and says it hasn’t been updated since 11/23/19…which, if not mistaken, was Selection Day 2019…so, while they say they use it, FUBeAR bets it hasn’t been looked at for the last 2 selection cycles and probably was mostly ignored prior.

One explanation of how it works…
“SRS
Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average, although it should be noted that margin of victory has been assigned a lower bound of 7 points and an upper bound of 24 points.”

So what you are saying is the chairman has no idea what he is talking about.

[Affirm]

I'm trying to form my AGS ballot right now. I try to be realistic and not a homer.
I've moved NDSU down to 7th and Holy Cross down to 9th. I moved Samford up to 6th.
I feel that Furman realistically can sit at #10.

If W&M loses to Richmond, it could come down to HC and Furman for that 8th seed. Furman, by far, has the more impressive resume, but HC is undefeated.

Sagarin, after 11/12/2022 games, has the following:
FURMAN 8-2 #126
Mercer #120
Samford #121
HOLY CROSS 10-0 (edited to correct my typo which said 10-1; I knew they were undefeated) #146

[AstroDin]

Holy Cross is undefeated - currently 10-0.
Link to Massey: https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/fcs/ratings
Montana is listed at 6 at 7-3; they will fight to get a bid against MSU.
Furman is listed at 10.

[The Jackal]

Holy Cross is undefeated - currently 10-0.
Link to Massey: https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/fcs/ratings
Montana is listed at 6 at 7-3; they will fight to get a bid against MSU.
Furman is listed at 10.

I think Holy Cross' strength of schedule is in the 70s. Incarnate Word is in the 50s. Furman's is 25th, I think.

I guess there's an open question of whether a computer would supplant one of those two teams based on strength of schedule.

[apaladin]

A couple of auto bids on the line this Saturday with winner getting the bid and could be FU opponent.
Dayton at Davidson most likely Davidson. Comparing scores Dayton lost to #3 Butler 31-0, Davidson beat thm 31-0.
NC A&T at Gardner-Webb both 4-0 in BS. GW is 5-5 with 3 fbs losses. 2 very close. NCA&T 7-3

[Louis Tully]

https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/11/fcs-f ... e-week-11/

This has Richmond coming to us. The winner heading to California. This is from last week.

4 SoCon in. Sammy 6 seed. Mercer to Sammy in 2nd round. Mocs headed to South Dakota State with a win.

[FurmAlum]

Here's my Top 15:

1. Sac State
2. SDSU
3. Samford
4. Montana State
5. Furman
6. NDSU
7. William & Mary
8. HC
9. UIW
10. Jackson St.
11. Weber St.
12. Chatty
13. Mercer
14. Richmond
15. Montana

All of us know that's not how it will be when the poll's come out tomorrow. The bottom line is the Socon teams are going to have to have some post season wins, despite the bias (= poor seeding, road games, etc.) in order to overcome the bias. And I agree with everyone that has said so on this board that the bias is real.

I think this Furman team for a variety of reasons can play with anyone in the FCS this year. The first order of business is to beat the snot out of Wofftard. Then worry about the playoffs.

[AstroDin]

^^^ based on the results of Nov. 12, if Davidson wins, they will be bussed to Gville.
Cost to the NCAA: a couple of tanks of diesel.

The only way I see Furman going out west in the second round is if Furman is one of the last four in. If NDSU loses to ND and W7M loses to Richmond, Furman has a shot at a seed. The other thing that could mix things up is SacSt losing to UC Davis.

[FUBeAR]

Here's my Top 15:

1. Sac State
2. SDSU
3. Samford
4. Montana State
5. Furman
6. NDSU
7. William & Mary
8. HC
9. UIW
10. Jackson St.
11. Weber St.
12. Chatty
13. Mercer
14. Richmond
15. Montana

All of us know that's not how it will be when the poll's come out tomorrow. The bottom line is the Socon teams are going to have to have some post season wins, despite the bias (= poor seeding, road games, etc.) in order to overcome the bias. And I agree with everyone that has said so on this board that the bias is real.

I think this Furman team for a variety of reasons can play with anyone in the FCS this year. The first order of business is to beat the snot out of Wofftard. Then worry about the playoffs.

[Affirm]

The bias IS real.

[apaladin]

We are prolly all overthinking this. I doubt very seriously if the committee spends much time looking at sos, who beat who etc. They prolly spend less than an hour on the bracket and most of that is spent on who goes where etc. In years past you could take the STATS(I think) poll and the firsf 24 eligible teams was the field.